Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Raleigh, NC

645 
WWUS52 KRAH 211445
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
945 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

NCC057-211453-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140221T1500Z/
DAVIDSON NC-
945 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3549 8015 3551 8006 3591 7985 3590 7976
      3561 7955 3552 7956 3552 7948 3530 7932
      3516 7964 3508 8029 3520 8028 3517 8035
      3523 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 249DEG 29KT 3534 8007 

$$

NCC007-123-125-151-153-167-211500-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140221T1500Z/
ANSON NC-STANLY NC-RICHMOND NC-RANDOLPH NC-MONTGOMERY NC-MOORE NC-
945 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST
FOR NORTHWESTERN ANSON...STANLY...NORTHWESTERN RICHMOND...RANDOLPH...
MONTGOMERY AND MOORE COUNTIES...
 
AT 943 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF ALBEMARLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. 
ADDITIONAL STORMS WITHIN THE LINE OVER RANDOLPH COUNTY ARE 
ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHEBORO...ALBEMARLE...RANDLEMAN...TROY...CARTHAGE...BISCOE...
ANSONVILLE...SEAGROVE...ELDORADO...SEVEN LAKES...NORWOOD...BADIN...
OAKBORO...RAMSEUR...MOUNT GILEAD...FRANKLINVILLE...ROBBINS...STAR...
CANDOR AND TAYLORTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS 
STORM. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS 
SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY 
STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8015 3551 8006 3591 7985 3590 7976
      3561 7955 3552 7956 3552 7948 3530 7932
      3516 7964 3508 8029 3520 8028 3517 8035
      3523 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 249DEG 29KT 3534 8007 

$$

23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A CONVECTIVE
BAND THAT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY.
CONVECTIVE BAND CURRENTLY EXITING THE TN VALLEY...MOVING INTO THE
SMOKEY MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
QUITE STRONG WITH AREA VAD WIND PROFILES DEPICTING AROUND 60KTS.
THIS LOW LEVEL JET PROJECTED TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE.

ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE. THIS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. BASED ON TIMING...APPEARS TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
NEAR SFC AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
MORE SO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MUCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG ALONG OUR
EASTERN FRINGE AND SFC BASED CAPE POSSIBLY OVER 1500 J/KG. STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY AS WELL AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW ROTATING
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL DEPICT GENERALLY STRAIGHT
LINE HODOGRAPHS WITH MODEST TURNING. THIS IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...IF A MESO-LOW CAN DEVELOP
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND...COULD SEE AN ENHANCED TORNADIC THREAT.

WITH PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER AND INCREASED FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...WILL MENTION HIGHLIGHT STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN
FORECAST TEXT. IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WILL MENTION A
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT UPON ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS. WITH TEMPS STARTING
OUT IN THE MID 60S (POSSIBLY UPPER 60S)...POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
WARM ABOVE 70 DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

WLY WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL ADVECT DRIER MORE STABLE
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC...LEADING TO DIMINISHING SHOWER COVERAGE AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE. EXPECT CLEARING TO COMMENCE LATE THIS
MORNING IN THE NW PIEDMONT...PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS I TO THE REGION. MIXING INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE-FALLING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COULD SEE SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL. MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 304 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INITIAL COLD ADVECTION EARLY SATURDAY WILL
BECOME NEUTRAL... AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY... AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY... WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW...
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
BRINGING TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

STRONG SIGNAL FOR RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US... WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL. WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW GENERALLY STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD... WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHEN A AN IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA... AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG
TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE EXITING THE NC MOUNTAINS AT 1130Z...STILL MOVING
QUICKLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD REACH THE NW PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD BY 13Z...THE
TRIANGLE AREA AND SANDHILLS INCLUDING KRDU AND KFAY BETWEEN 15Z AND
17Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING KRWI AND KGSB BETWEEN 16Z AND
18Z. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
WIND GUSTS 40-50KTS MAY OCCUR IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT DRIER AND
STABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES WEST-TO-
EAST...STARTING AROUND MID DAY IN THE TRIAD...REACHING THE TRIANGLE
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 21-23Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY. SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL
BE RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE...THIS WEATHER FEATURE EXPECTED TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SFC WINDS VEERING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM..SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083-084-221030-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-
RICHMOND-
400 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINWE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST BETWEEN 9 AM AND 12 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING BETWEEN 9 AM
AND 12 PM.

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089-221030-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
400 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MARCH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS GREATEST ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95. THE STORMS SHOULD CROSS THE TRIANGLE AND
FAYETTEVILLE AREAS BETWEEN 1030 AM AND 1 PM...AND THE COASTAL
PLAIN INCLUDING ROCKY MOUNT...WILSON AND GOLDSBORO BETWEEN 12 PM
AND 2 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 3 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
843 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-211445-
GUILFORD-MONTGOMERY-RANDOLPH-FORSYTH-DAVIDSON-STANLY-
843 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
GUILFORD...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...FORSYTH...DAVIDSON AND STANLY
UNTIL 945 AM EST...

AT 839 AM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR OAK RIDGE TO 25
MILES WEST OF ANSONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. A
TRAINED SPOTTER IN CLEMMONS REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH IN A
THUNDERSTORM JUST BEFORE 840 AM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...HIGH POINT...ASHEBORO...LEXINGTON...
ALBEMARLE...RANDLEMAN...TROY...LINWOOD AND BELEWS CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELLING THIS
MORNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3551 8018 3572 8033 3575 8046
      3584 8049 3584 8040 3589 8042 3589 8037
      3605 8046 3626 8043 3624 7954 3552 7956
      3551 7977 3527 7971 3517 7962 3514 8002
      3519 8011 3516 8023 3521 8025 3518 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 1339Z 286DEG 32KT 3619 8006 3509 8053

JET/DJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
856 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 AM     TSTM WND GST     CLEMMONS                36.02N  80.39W
02/21/2014  E35 MPH          FORSYTH            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN A STORM NEAR AND JUST WEST OF CLEMMONS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1400932

JET/DJF