Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...INCREASING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL TOMORROW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS RIDING THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS KEEPING DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. BEST COVERAGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PROXIMITY TO THE MOISTURE
PLUME. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD
WARMER ACROSS AREA.

TOMORROW...NO BIG CHANGES IN MODELS AND ONGOING FORECAST WITH UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST
BY THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR TO INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1 1/4 INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO. LATEST MODELS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING UVV ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. WITH THE INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INCREASING...AND HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM NOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE
CONTDVD WHERE TRAINING STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS...SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF WETTING RAINS AS
WELL...WITH A FEW STORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING MORE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM
DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT WEST WITH THE
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN MONSOON PLUME MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A RESULT...WITH VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.0 TO 1.35
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS.  THIS WILL SPREAD THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/PLAINS.  HOWEVER...WITH SFC
LOW SETTING UP ACROSS EASTERN CO...THIS PUTS SOUTHEAST MTS UNDER
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WHICH ISN'T PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR A
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
TIMING OF THE INITIAL ENERGY APPEARS TO COME ACROSS FAIRLY EARLY
WHICH MAY KEEP ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...HINDERING
HEATING SOME.  HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME TRAILING
ENERGY WHICH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  PIKES PEAK AREA
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SHOT FOR HEAVY RAIN AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUS IT APPEARS WALDO AND BLACK FOREST
BURN SCARS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON
THURSDAY. THE ONE THING THAT MAY HELP SOME IS THE INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD HELP THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
EASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH POTENTIALLY MITIGATING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SOME.

THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT LOOKS LESS FOCUSED AND POTENTIALLY LOWER ON THURSDAY...IT
DOES STILL EXIST ESPECIALLY FOR THE SUSCEPTIBLE BURN SCARS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH IT APPEARS MCS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS NW KS AND NE IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO FORCING ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM LOW LEVEL JET.

WEATHER GRADUALLY DRIES OUT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAILY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO SATURDAY AS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPS SFC DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S.

WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...GFS HAS A DIFFICULT TIME REESTABLISHING
THE MONSOON PLUME BACK OVER COLORADO NEXT WEEK.  THE EC BY CONTRAST
BRINGS ANOTHER TROF INTO NV/UT BY TUESDAY WHICH SENDS ANOTHER SURGE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CO FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS CLIMO.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THOUGH WILL SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE CONTDVD. COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS AFFECTING ALS AFT 18Z...THOUGH WILL KEEP VCTS IN TAF AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY DRIFTING ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL AFFECT COS OR
PUB AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>068.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-131715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1115 AM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
OVER AREA BURN SCARS...ESPECIALLY THE WEST FORK COMPLEX IN MINERAL
COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON WEDNESDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MUD AND
ROCKSLIDES IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE HIGHLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.

23/23

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