Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO WARMER AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS ENHANCED DRYING ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO.  MCV IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
KANSAS...AND NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MCV
CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN COLORADO FROM
WYOMING.

.TONIGHT...HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BAND OF
CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...I25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING.  ARW ALSO HINTS AT AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS
THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO.  IN THE GRIDS...INCREASED POPS FOR THE EVENING.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 400 TO 800 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL STILL BE AN INCH OR GREATER ON THE PLAINS
AND I25 CORRIDOR...AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN.  STORM MOTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
500MB AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.MONDAY...THE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.   WITH INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT...CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCREASE.  MAIN QUESTION
IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.  A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY...AND THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  CONVECTION MAY MOSTLY
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR BEHIND THE FRONT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SEE TEXT
FOR EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH CURRENTLY SUMMARIZES THE SEVERE THREAT
WELL.  WHILE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY DECREASE...WILLS TILL
HAVE TO WATCH BURN SCARS CLOSELY. --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A LARGE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP COLORADO UNDER A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES
TO THE E AND NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. A
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AFFECT
THE CWA TUE AND WED...PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE WED. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ENOUGH FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE AND
WED...WILL MOST LIKELY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SW FLATTENS...AND A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS. THURSDAY MAY STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS THE COOLER AIR
SLOWLY GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WARMER TEMPS WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE STARTING FRI. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
DIURNAL AND TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL COTNINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTRUBANCE MOVING SOUHTWARD FROM WYOMING COULD
HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION WELL INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KCOS
AND KPUB.  OVERNIGHT..ANTICIPATE VFR AT ALL SITES.  ON
MONDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD START BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT
WMAY ACT AS A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>089-093-
094.

&&

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PGW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-141300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1154 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR...WITH THE AREA BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND AREAS OF
SATURATED SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY...FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THREATS FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP
INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

06/27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
201 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

COZ086-132030-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
201 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 201 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN PUEBLO...PUEBLO WEST AND PUEBLO RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 10464 3836 10456 3822 10467 3831 10478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 040DEG 13KT 3834 10464

PJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

COZ065-069-072-073-077-132200-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT CO-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT CO-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT CO-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT CO-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT CO-
322 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SAGUACHE AND
SOUTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AT 321 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SWISSVALE...OR 53 MILES EAST OF GUNNISON...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM THAT
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ON AREA ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SAGUACHE AND SOUTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 10600 3849 10594 3831 10576 3829 10603
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 352DEG 9KT 3842 10596

KAM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
732 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW WOODLAND PARK     39.00N 105.06W
07/13/2014  E0.50 INCH       TELLER             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            15 MINUTE DURATION.

&&

RMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
733 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

COZ081-084-085-140200-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
733 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM MDT...

AT 730 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WOODLAND PARK...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO .20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR WITH THIS STORM...HOWEVER IF
THIS STORM INTENSIFIES FURTHER THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CORE IS ALONG HIGHWAY
24 WEST OF WOODLAND PARK...DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST.  RADAR
ESTIMATES AND SPOTTERS HAVE INDICATED NEARLY HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN
15 MINUTES.  IF THIS AREA OF OF RAIN SHOULD BUILD OVER THE BURN
SCAR...IT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...BUT AT THE CURRENT
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS STORM WILL JUST MISS THE BURN SCAR TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH.  STAY ALERT IN CASE THIS STORM MOVES INTO THE
BURN SCAR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS...AIR FORCE ACADEMY...MANITOU SPRINGS...
CHIPITA PARK AND CASCADE.

LAT...LON 3886 10496 3892 10500 3898 10500 3901 10488
      3888 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 358DEG 12KT 3895 10508

KAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

COZ081-082-085-140215-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT CO-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
739 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TELLER AND WEST CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

AT 738 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DIVIDE...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLORADO
SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

ANOTHER STORM WAS MOVING OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE WALDO
BURN SCAR AND IT WAS INTENSIFYING. THIS STORM SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN AND AROUND THE WALDO BURN SCAR SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE
WEATHER.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODLAND PARK...CRIPPLE CREEK...GREEN MOUNTAIN FALLS...VICTOR...PIKES
PEAK...CHIPITA PARK...CASCADE...DIVIDE AND CRYSTOLA.

LAT...LON 3901 10518 3897 10495 3868 10497 3872 10531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 010DEG 15KT 3892 10509

HODANISH