Areal Flood Advisory 49, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ONE EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SENT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE PLAINS LATE LAST
NIGHT...WHICH HELPED TO FIRE STORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LOOKS TO BE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. SOME DRIER AIR WITHIN THE
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK INTO NORTHERN COLORADO WITH THE MAIN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE
AT THIS TIME.

NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS LAST NIGHTS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AS THE NEXT
BACK DOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE
MOVES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE FLOW...STRONG SUMMER SOLAR HEATING AND CONTINUED AMPLE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN PRECIP WATER PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STILL
PLENTY OF JUICE IN THE AIR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS IS INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP STORMS MOVING. THIS WILL LESSEN THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...THOUGH WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT FOR
THESE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS MOVING OVER AREA BURN SCARS AS WELL AS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN DECENT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...DOES ALLOW FOR
INCREASED SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL SUPPORT CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
J/KG RANGE. UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENS OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA LOOK
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DEEP UPPER
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FOR TUE...SURFACE FRONT
RETREATS NORTHWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING S-SE ON THE PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE KS BORDER. EXPECT FAIRLY VIGOROUS
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS LATE
TUE AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FROM THE PALMER
DIVIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE KS BORDER AS 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES. IN
FACT...SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ON THE
PLAINS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AIRMASS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DRIES SLIGHTLY...THOUGH IMPACT ON TSRA
STRENGTH/COVERAGE WILL BE SMALL...AS TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLE WITH CONTINUE.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...LARGE MCS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTHWARD NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE KS BORDER
OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO...AND KEPT AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS CONVECTION COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS
WED MORNING...LEADING TO A RENEWED WESTWARD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY. WHILE AIR MASS ON THE PLAINS MAY BE
INITIALLY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH CONVECTION WED
AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS PLUS LIFT WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ONCE AGAIN...WITH STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE RATON MESA IN THE EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION...THOUGH TSRA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.

COOLER AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
THU...WITH ECMWF SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
TSRA...WHILE GFS IS DRIER WITH STORMS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. WILL RUN WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT POPS MOST
LOCATIONS THU AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SUSPECT MID-LEVEL DRYING
NOTED ON BOTH MODELS PLUS COOL SURFACE TEMPS MAY LIMIT CONVECTION
SOMEWHAT. FOR FRI AND BEYOND...UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH FAIRLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE RIDGE SPREADING ACROSS CO. WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FOR SOME AFTERNOON TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH BY
SUN/MON ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VERY SPARSE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM BACK
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TAF SITES
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERALLY BRIEF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS TO THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES. UPSLOPE FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN EASTERN COLORADO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHERLY SURGE...WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR STRATUS CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z/TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT KCOS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
OF EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1119 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-151730-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1119 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE STEERING WINDS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY...WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE AIR TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH WOULD STILL POSE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS AREA BURN SCARS...AS WELL AS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

THE INCREASED WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING HAIL AROUND
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THREATS FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ON TUESDAY.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

COZ098-141830-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-
1149 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

NORTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
THIS INCLUDES...
HOLLY...GRANADA...HARTMAN AND BRISTOL.

THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER COLORADO WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

THESE WEAK FUNNELS CAN EXTEND THOUSANDS OF FEET DOWN FROM THE BASE OF
THE PARENT CLOUD...AND TYPICALLY LAST FOR ONLY A FEW MINUTES...THEN
DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...ON RARE OCCASIONS...THEY CAN BRIEFLY REACH THE
GROUND AND CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE.

IF YOU ARE IN COLORADO...BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A
FUNNEL CLOUD...AND IF YOU DO...CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY...AND THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.  IF YOU ARE A WEATHER SPOTTER FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO...PLEASE CALL OUR OFFICE DIRECTLY IF YOU SPOT A
FUNNEL CLOUD.

IF A FUNNEL CLOUD COMES CLOSE TO THE GROUND NEAR YOU...GO TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY...PREFERABLY IN A STURDY BUILDING.

PJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1155 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NE LAMAR              38.13N 102.55W
07/14/2014                   PROWERS            CO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FUNNEL CLOUD NOTED FROM APPROXIMATELY 1140 AM TO 1145
            AM MDT.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
107 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

COZ071>074-142000-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY CO-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT CO-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT CO-
107 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COSTILLA COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

AT 107 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FORT GARLAND...OR 24 MILES EAST OF
ALAMOSA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT GARLAND.

LAT...LON 3754 10549 3754 10531 3735 10533 3735 10549
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 002DEG 14KT 3746 10542

PJC