Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
353 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014

...CONVECTION MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY...

UPPER DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY AS ANTICIPATED.  SO
FAR TODAY...ONLY SOME PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH A CELL NEAR
WOODLAND PARK.  THE HIGHER ELEVATION PROBABLY HELPED WITH THAT.
STORM ALSO DROPPED BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES AROUND THE WOODLAND PARK AREA EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO OTHER HAIL REPORTS TODAY AND NO EXTREME WIND REPORTS
EITHER.  PRIMARY THREATS TODAY HAVE BEEN HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
FORTUNATELY...THE WALDO CANYON SCAR HAS BEEN LARGELY SPARED
TODAY...TOTALING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.  COLORADO
SPRINGS AND WOODLAND PARK...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SCAR...WERE HIT
HARDER WITH A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN CAUSING SOME URBAN RUNOFF
ISSUES.  EXPECT CURRENT TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH MORE CONVECTION ON THE WAY...AS STILL ANOTHER BURST OF
ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS.

THE OTHER AREA THAT HAS STARTED TO BE A BIT ACTIVE IS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  THIS AREA HAS BETTER CAPES AND SHEAR.  IN
FACT...SEVERAL OF THE CELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OUT THERE HAVE SHOWN
MINOR ROTATION IN THE MID LEVELS.  FORTUNATELY...NEITHER THE CAPE
NOR THE SHEAR HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SEND THESE STORMS INTO
OVERDRIVE. I SUSPECT PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING
WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL UP
TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.

FOR SATURDAY...SPC HAS PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE AREA FARTHER
NORTH...OUT OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  THIS LOOKS ABOUT
RIGHT AS THE MUCH BETTER SHEAR WILL BE UP THAT WAY.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE ALSO PULLED BACK ON THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THREAT
FOR SATURDAY.  WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT
WITH A LATER START THAN TODAY...AND PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK REGION...AND KANSAS BORDER AREAS.  THESE
AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND BEST WIND SHEAR.
OTHER AREAS WILL START TO SEE AN INTRUSION OF WARMER...DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LW

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014

WILL KEEP DISCUSSION RELATIVELY BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING STORM
ACTIVITY.

PRIMARY LONGER TERM ISSUES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TEMPERATURES...POPS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA(INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES) FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.

THEN A DRYING TREND IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE EARLY JUNE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED AS UPPER SYSTEM/AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO DRY ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FROM LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MID PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
DISTRICT BY LATER NEXT WEEK AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
NORTHERLY SURGE AND INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

FINALLY...ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURNING BY NEXT FRIDAY. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED MONDAY...WITH COOLEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014

GENERALLY VFR AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND GOOD MOISTURE WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY AT KCOS.
PRIMARY WINDOW OF CONVECTION WILL RUN THROUGH 02Z. OTHER CONCERNS
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH...AND LOCAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER IN THE
AREA OF RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGEST WIND SHEAR.

ON SATURDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HOWEVER...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SUCH
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...PIKES
PEAK REGION AND KANSAS BORDER AREAS...INITIALIZING 18Z-20Z.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER SATURDAY AS WIND
SHEAR INCREASES. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-311730-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1117 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND
HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.

A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL UP
TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...AND MORE INTENSE
RAINFALL. RAINFALL UNDER ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH...AND HAIL TO PENNY SIZE.
A COUPLE STORMS OVER EASTERN LAS ANIMAS...BACA...BENT...PROWERS...AND
KIOWA COUNTIES MAY BECOME SEVERE. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS AND
COLORADO BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

50/50

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
429 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNE ROSITA            38.16N 105.28W
05/30/2014  M1.73 INCH       CUSTER             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN STARTED AROUND 0450 PM...25 MINUTE DURATION.
            PEASIZE AND SMALLER HAIL.

&&

RMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
441 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014

COZ079-083-086-302315-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT CO-
441 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
MDT...

AT 440 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF FLORENCE...OR 23 MILES WEST OF
PUEBLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENROSE...PUEBLO WEST AND WETMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 10501 3822 10519 3850 10498 3833 10471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 218DEG 18KT 3823 10505

KAM