Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2014

...INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 24 HOURS...

LEADING EDGE OF MOIST MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL PLUME TO I-25
CORRIDOR.  STILL MOSTLY CLOUD FREE EAST OF THE CORRIDOR...BUT WITH
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION WORK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS THIS EVENING WILL INCLUDE
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL...UP TO 1/2 INCH DIAMETER...HAIL.  SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS LOW THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR AND CAPE.  BIGGEST WORRY
IS CELL DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER A BURN SCAR AND THEN...WITH THE LIGHT
STEERING WINDS...JUST SITTING THERE.  CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE OVER BY
MIDNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  SHOULD BE AN EARLIER
START...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD...AND GENERALLY MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY.  MANY OF THE SAME THREATS AS TODAY...BUT WITH
GREATER COVERAGE.  THE THREATS WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT MORE AREAS.
CONCERN FOR BURN SCARS WILL STEP UP AS A RESULT. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2014

GENERALLY MINOR LONGER TERM ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUING TO BE TEMPERATURES AND
POPS(INCLUDING ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT
AT TIMES). IN ADDITION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE
NOTED AT TIMES SUNDAY.

LATEST LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN WILL BE NOTED AT
TIMES OVER THE CWFA FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.

ONGOING CONVECTION FRIDAY EVENING(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS) DUE TO ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AROUND MIDNIGHT.  ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
ACTIVITY.

AS OF THIS DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN(THANKS TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING ONE INCH AT TIMES) WILL BE MORE
LIKELY THAN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME DUE TO PROJECTED MARGINAL
SHEAR PROFILE AND INSTABILITY VALUES. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY WITH FOCUS ON RECENT AREA BURN SCARS(INCLUDING BUT
NOT LIMITED TO THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS) FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

FOCUS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFTS TO A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS(PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS) AS SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITIES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCAR LOCATIONS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BASICALLY BE A TRANSITION DAY TO
DRIER CONDITIONS AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA ALLOWS A
DRIER AIRMASS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA...ALTHOUGH
RECENT VERSION OF ECMWF KEEPS EASTERN THIRD OF FORECAST DISTRICT
UNDER SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME.

FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD CONTINUE TO NOTICE GENERALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING AS DRIER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...ALTHOUGH ECMWF
ATTEMPTS TO KEEP NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE.

RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS STILL INDICATE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FROM MID TO LATER PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK(PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) AS MEAN LAYER
SHEAR...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES ALL FAVOR INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT POTENTIAL.

ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...WHILE COOLEST TEMPERATURES(CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES) SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTION OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF I-25 SO FAR TODAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH SOME...GENERALLY WEAKER
CONVECTION...MAKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. GENERALLY VFR AT
KCOS...KPUB...KALS TAF SITES BUT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LOCALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH. OTHER
CONCERNS...ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 50
KTS...LIGHTNING AND LOCAL SMALL HAIL TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.
LINGERING ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z...WITH MOST ACTIVITY FINISHED
THEREAFTER.  FOR TOMORROW...ACTIVITY REGENERATING 16-18Z...A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN TODAY...WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CONVECTION
MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY 17Z-02Z. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1153 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-301800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1153 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
STORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
HAIL TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...WHICH COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RUNOFF ON AREA BURN SCARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS FALL. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. HOWEVER...A
FEW STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO OVER 60 MPH AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOODING OVER BURN SCARS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

50/50

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