Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Pueblo, CO

627 
WWUS55 KPUB 060251
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
851 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

COC041-060315-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-140606T0315Z/
EL PASO CO-
851 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...

AT 851 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIMLA...OR 25
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIMON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 10405 3901 10433 3913 10432 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 275DEG 21KT 3908 10410 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MOORE

588 
WWUS55 KPUB 060312 RRA
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
912 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

COC041-060322-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-140606T0315Z/
EL PASO CO-
912 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3896 10405 3901 10433 3913 10432 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 275DEG 21KT 3908 10410 

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...

EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  SFC WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO 50S FARTHER EAST.  SPC MESO ANALYSIS
SHOWING MIXED LAYER CAPES OF AROUND 500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH HIGHER VALUES EAST OF THE I-25 COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE.
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  LCLS SEEM A LITTLE HIGH...BUT AS
EVENING APPROACHES ENHANCED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
TO THE EAST OF LA JUNTA.  SPC SSEO SHOWS SOME ENHANCED UPDRAFT
HELICITIES WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON BASED ON LATEST
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS WILL BE THE TWO DIVIDES (PALMER AND
RATON). THEN RAP13...NAM12...AND GFS SUGGEST AN MCS WILL FORM ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND SEEM TO BE TRENDING DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AFTER 06Z JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT SOME SCT POPS OUT THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.  EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH ANY WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW FROM THE
MCS WILL HELP REINFORCE HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE BACK ACROSS CA WILL BE PROPAGATING THROUGH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND 40-50
KTS...ROTATING SUPERCELLS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY.  CAPE VALUES
SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT HIGHER...PROBABLY AROUND 1000-2500 J/KG ACROSS
ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THUS EXPECT THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS WELL.  THIS RAISES CONCERNS
FOR FLASH FLOODING ON THE BURN SCARS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY QUICK
MOVING...BUT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES MAY STILL CAUSE QUICK RUNOFF
PROBLEMS.  LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE WALDO AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS...BUT WILL WAIT FOR DETAILS TO
GET RESOLVED BETTER IN HIGH RES MODELS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS.

THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN DRIER AND LESS
ACTIVE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS PINNED UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  NAM DOES HINT AT SOME MARGINAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE LA GARITAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AS WELL.  BUT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE HIGH BASED AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM
THREATS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

...COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN NAM
AND GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS KEEPS A COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS BROAD TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST NAM
A TAD DRIER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO GLOBAL
MODELS WHICH INDICATE AN MCS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS PUSHING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS. STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
GIVES WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH CAPES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH DO INDICATE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SHEARS INCREASING TO 40-50KTS ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON EASTERN COLORADO BURN SCARS.
FURTHER WEST...LATEST NAM TRIES TO MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATING MUCH
MORE QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS THAN GFS AND
ECMWF...AND HAVE GONE WITH THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE MONDAY AND
THEN FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. STILL LOOKS TO
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED MORE HIGHER BASED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH PERIOD. COULD SEE A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND MAY
AFFECT THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES. WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO -TSRA
FOR KCOS WHERE LIKELIHOOD IS GREATEST THAT TERMINAL MAY BE
IMPACTED. KPUB WILL REMAIN IN A VCTS FOR NOW. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
TO NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THESE AREAS BE
IMPACTED BY A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THESE CIGS WILL BREAK BY 16Z-17Z AND THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB
TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS 15- 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
739 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-070145-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
739 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL THREATS. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO EXIT EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST ACTIVE DAY APPEARS
TO BE FRIDAY. THE MAIN RISKS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WHEN SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOP.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN
AREAS AND IN AND AROUND RECENT BURN SCARS...SUCH AS WALDO
CANYON...BLACK FOREST...ROYAL GORGE...AND EAST PEAK.

PLEASE PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DEVELOPING
WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
748 PM MDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             10 SE HASWELL           38.35N 103.03W
06/05/2014  E1.00 INCH       KIOWA              CO   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
811 PM MDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             10 NW HASTY             38.21N 103.09W
06/05/2014  M1.75 INCH       BENT               CO   STORM CHASER

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
817 PM MDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HAIL             3 NE PETERSON AFB       38.86N 104.67W
06/05/2014  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
826 PM MDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TORNADO          1 W HASTY               38.11N 102.98W
06/05/2014                   BENT               CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
827 PM MDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     HAIL             5 N CALHAN              39.11N 104.30W
06/05/2014  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
828 PM MDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HAIL             1 N HASTY               38.12N 102.96W
06/05/2014  M2.75 INCH       BENT               CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&