Special Weather Statement, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
905 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
HOLD ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
NEAR-RECORD READINGS WE SAW EARLIER THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN OVERALL QUIET DAY SO FAR WITH MOST STORMS STAYING ACROSS FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
GILA COUNTY MAY END UP LASTING LONG ENOUGH INTO THE LOWER DESERTS TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF RAIN. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY A BIT LIMITED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND MLCAPES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG ARE
PRESENT. MODEST FLOW ALOFT OF AROUND 30 KNOTS AND FAVORABLE GUSTY
WIND SOUNDING PROFILE WILL PRESENT A STRONG WIND THREAT THIS EVENING
WITH THESE WESTWARD PROGRESSING STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
STORM OUTFLOW AND INDUCED COLD POOL FROM THE GILA COUNTY STORMS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER CELL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PHOENIX
AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW SOME
STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WHILE WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER SONORA MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AN
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STORMS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHER PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE
TODAY...BUT STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO BRING A MOISTURE SURGE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD STORMS MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO OUR
CWA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING THEM TO MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER STEADILY INCREASES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AS WELL. STORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST THAT CAN CREATE DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE
WEST THROUGH 06Z...BUT THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM TO IMPACT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS BETWEEN 05-07Z. STORM OUTFLOWS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ALSO DURING THAT TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE HOW FAR WEST THESE STORMS
AND OUTFLOWS WILL PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH A MUCH BETTER
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR STORMS IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE INTO TAFS...THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED
STORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
332 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-271045-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
332 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014 /332 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS FORM...STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD
GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CREATING DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS FORM...STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD
GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CREATING DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     DUST STORM       2 NW SEVILLE            33.25N 111.73W
07/26/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AND 50 MPH WINDS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400123

LEINS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1027 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

AZZ023-024-027-028-270615-
PINAL AZ-MARICOPA AZ-
1027 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
  WEST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 1115 PM MST

AT 1026 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FOUNTAIN HILLS TO
SALT RIVER INDIAN COMMUNITY TO AHWATUKEE TO BAPCHULE...AND MOVING
WEST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY DENSE BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   DOWNTOWN SCOTTSDALE AND  PAPAGO PARK...
   CAMELBACK MOUNTAIN... PARADISE VALLEY... SKY HARBOR AIRPORT AND
  SOUTH MOUNTAIN PARK...
   DOWNTOWN PHOENIX... MARICOPA AND  SOUTH PHOENIX...
   ARIZONA STATE FAIRGROUNDS... LAVEEN AND  PIESTEWA PEAK PARK...
   ESTRELLA SAILPORT AND  PHOENIX...

LAT...LON 3362 11170 3349 11174 3333 11179 3304 11173
      3302 11217 3329 11226 3347 11223 3360 11211
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 083DEG 30KT 3360 11177 3348 11188
          3333 11196 3312 11189

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1028 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

AZZ022>024-270615-
MARICOPA AZ-
1028 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 1115 PM MST

AT 1027 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DESERT MOUNTAIN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   DESERT MOUNTAIN AND  CAMP CREEK...
   CAREFREE...
   CAVE CREEK...

LAT...LON 3370 11193 3381 11214 3400 11198 3388 11172
      3371 11176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 113DEG 14KT 3383 11183

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1033 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     DUST STORM       4 SSE TUMBLEWEED PARK   33.22N 111.79W
07/26/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

1029 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSE TUMBLEWEED PARK   33.22N 111.79W
07/26/2014  M45 MPH          MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

1029 PM     LIGHTNING        4 SSE TUMBLEWEED PARK   33.22N 111.79W
07/26/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400124
EVENT NUMBER PSR1400125
EVENT NUMBER PSR1400126

MP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1100 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

AZZ022-023-270630-
MARICOPA AZ-
1100 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 1130 PM MST

AT 1055 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DESERT RIDGE MARKETPLACE...MOVING WEST AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   NORTH MOUNTAIN PARK...
   DEER VALLEY AIRPORT AND  METRO CENTER...

LAT...LON 3355 11220 3381 11213 3373 11181 3352 11189
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 099DEG 8KT 3364 11201

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1107 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

AZZ022>024-270700-
MARICOPA AZ-
1107 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST

AT 1105 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMP CREEK...MOVING WEST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   NEW RIVER...

LAT...LON 3401 11172 3396 11168 3377 11211 3396 11224
      3398 11220 3399 11220 3402 11217 3405 11216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0608Z 070DEG 15KT 3400 11189

18