Dust Storm Warning 9, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
905 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
HOLD ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
NEAR-RECORD READINGS WE SAW EARLIER THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN OVERALL QUIET DAY SO FAR WITH MOST STORMS STAYING ACROSS FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
GILA COUNTY MAY END UP LASTING LONG ENOUGH INTO THE LOWER DESERTS TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF RAIN. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY A BIT LIMITED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND MLCAPES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG ARE
PRESENT. MODEST FLOW ALOFT OF AROUND 30 KNOTS AND FAVORABLE GUSTY
WIND SOUNDING PROFILE WILL PRESENT A STRONG WIND THREAT THIS EVENING
WITH THESE WESTWARD PROGRESSING STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
STORM OUTFLOW AND INDUCED COLD POOL FROM THE GILA COUNTY STORMS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER CELL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PHOENIX
AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATEST HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW SOME
STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WHILE WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER SONORA MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AN
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STORMS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHER PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE
TODAY...BUT STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO BRING A MOISTURE SURGE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD STORMS MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO OUR
CWA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING THEM TO MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER STEADILY INCREASES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AS WELL. STORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST THAT CAN CREATE DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE
WEST THROUGH 06Z...BUT THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM TO IMPACT THE PHOENIX TERMINALS BETWEEN 05-07Z. STORM OUTFLOWS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ALSO DURING THAT TIME WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE HOW FAR WEST THESE STORMS
AND OUTFLOWS WILL PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH A MUCH BETTER
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR STORMS IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE INTO TAFS...THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED
STORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
332 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-271045-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
332 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014 /332 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS FORM...STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD
GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CREATING DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS FORM...STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD
GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CREATING DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1013 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     TSTM WND GST     EAST MESA               33.42N 111.69W
07/26/2014  M40 MPH          MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AND LESS THAN 0.5 MI. VSBY AND GOING DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400122

PSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     DUST STORM       2 NW SEVILLE            33.25N 111.73W
07/26/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AND 50 MPH WINDS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400123

LEINS