Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Phoenix, AZ

292 
WGUS75 KPSR 081609
FFSPSR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
909 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

AZC013-021-081700-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-140908T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PINAL AZ-MARICOPA AZ-
909 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL MARICOPA AND WEST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES...

AT 859 AM MST...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS 
EAST CENTRAL MARICOPA AND WEST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES. DOPPLER RADAR 
ESTIMATES OVER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS SINCE 7 AM 
THIS MORNING. THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ENCANTERA...
SEVILLE...SAN TAN MOUNTAIN PARK...PHOENIX MESA GATEWAY 
AIRPORT...CHANDLER HEIGHTS...OLBERG...BAPCHULE...SAN TAN 
VALLEY...SUN LAKES AND QUEEN CREEK

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT PEOPLE ALONG THE BANKS OF WASHES AND
CREEKS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. NORMALLY DRY WASHES
AND STREAMS WILL SUDDENLY HAVE RUNNING WATER AND MAKE UNBRIDGED
CROSSINGS IMPASSABLE. STREETS...UNDERPASSES...AND LOW SPOTS WILL
BECOME INUNDATED MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS IN THE WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN MOTORIZED VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO 
WATER. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS...MAKE THE SMART CHOICE... 
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 11222 3324 11181 3333 11167 3313 11147
      3290 11197

$$

MCLANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
240 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS FORMER HURRICANE NORBERT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORMER HURRICANE NORBERT CONTINUED TO SPIN AND WEAKEN OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CA EARLY THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS WORKED INLAND INTO
ARIZONA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORBERT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH...DRAWN BY BOTH THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AS
WELL AS AN UPPER TROF LOCATED JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST. EARLY THIS
MORNING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS LA PAZ COUNTY...AND THEY HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AND
DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST AFFECTING MUCH OF MARICOPA
COUNTY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE THE STORMS...WHICH ARE FORMING IN A
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. GIVEN THE
HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE COMMONPLACE WITH THESE STORMS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL OCCUR FROM MARICOPA
COUNTY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF UVV
AND RH SUGGEST DEEP LIFT AND A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN OVER OUR
EASTERN CWA...AND QPF VALUES WILL EASILY EXCEED ONE INCH IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
MARICOPA COUNTY INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THRU 5 PM. WIND
FIELDS ARE ALSO INCREASING AS THE TROF ALONG THE NRN CA COAST SLOWLY
APPROACHES...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME WHICH
WILL BRING FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT TO THE EQUATION. THE
SITUATION TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER ON
AUGUST 19TH...WHEN FLOODING AFFECTED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF PHOENIX SUCH AS NEW RIVER AND BLACK CANYON CITY. POPS HAVE
BEEN RAISED A BIT MORE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA...WITH MANY
LOCALES NOW INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. TEMPS TODAY WILL FALL WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES...CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS...AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL DESERTS WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S...POSSIBLY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROF
SWINGS INLAND AND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND EJECTS MOST OF
THE REMNANTS OF NORBERTS NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS ARIZONA. MOISTURE
WILL BE THINNER ON TUESDAY BUT PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...ABOVE
1.5 INCHES IN PLACES...AND DYNAMICS FROM THE PASSING TROF WILL BE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE. BY FAR THE BEST Q FORCING OCCURS ACROSS THE CWA
ON TUESDAY...AND UPPER WIND FIELDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST. ONE
FACTOR WORKING AGAINST STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE THE INSTABILITY...
DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEING WORKED OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS
SHOWERS/STORMS INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING AND FORECAST
CAPE VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STILL...WE WILL CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MANY OF THE LOWER DESERTS REMAINING IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WE ARE LOOKING AT A SLOW DRYING AND
WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STEADILY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL RATHER SLOW TO ERODE AS LOW/MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS EACH DAY. UPPER WINDS WILL MOSTLY FAVOR THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR BRINGING ANY
HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE...REACHING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES BY ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
GOING TO CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE METRO AROUND
12Z BUT BACK OFF A LITTLE BIT AND ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT ALL PHOENIX
SITES. SHOWERS WILL BE HIT OR MISS WITH CIGS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND
5000FT AT TIMES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF PHOENIX
BUT COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE METRO. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE
COMPLICATED SITUATION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DONE FOR THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE NW AZ CONVECTION HAS
ESSENTIALLY SQUASHED ANY NEW STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHOWERS COULD
SNEAK BACK INTO BLH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT UNTIL THEN BOTH SE CA SITES
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD BE VERY SLIGHT...AND PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. ASIDE
FROM SOME AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ021 UNTIL NOON TODAY
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ023...023 UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON

CA...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...MO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
515 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

AZZ022-023-091300-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
515 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY TO BE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE NORBERT HAS MOVED
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AS SUCH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL LEAD TO BOTH URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS TO 45 MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AZZ021-091300-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
515 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY. MOISTURE FROM
FORMER HURRICANE NORBERT HAS MOVED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AS
SUCH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL LEAD TO
URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO
URBAN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AZZ020-024>028-CAZ030>033-091300-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
515 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014 /515 AM PDT MON SEP 8 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF
PHOENIX. MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE NORBERT HAS MOVED INTO THE
AREA AND AS A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH
MAY LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. A GRADUAL
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
633 AM MST MON SEP 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW FIESTA MALL        33.36N 111.89W
09/08/2014  M4.08 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400270

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
640 AM MST MON SEP 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NW BUCKEYE            33.45N 112.69W
09/08/2014  M2.01 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400271

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
724 AM MST MON SEP 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W APACHE JUNCTION     33.40N 111.58W
09/08/2014  M2.60 INCH       PINAL              AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400272

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
725 AM MST MON SEP 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW AHWATUKEE          33.30N 112.02W
09/08/2014  M4.39 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400273

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
728 AM MST MON SEP 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE TEMPE              33.36N 111.90W
09/08/2014  M4.82 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400274

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
735 AM MST MON SEP 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE ANTHEM             33.81N 112.07W
09/08/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE AT CLOUD AND CENTRAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400275

WATERS