Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
114 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN
TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NOTABLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS. SIMILAR
TO CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 0.9 INCHES. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...NOT SO
CERTAIN IN OTHER LOCATIONS. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FOR BLAINE COUNTY AND THE BEAVER CREEK
BURN SCAR.

CONVECTION LOOKS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE
AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MONSOONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH MOST DEVELOPING NEAR SUN AND BYI EARLY.  EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS EVEN IN SHOWERS BUT COULD SEE POCKETS OF MVFR IN HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS.  EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS WITH SUN MOST LIKELY SITE TO GET
ACTIVITY.  DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WINDS EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS INFLUENCED BY UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IDAHO TODAY REMAINS IN
PLACE.   VERY HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.   EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY BUT HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.  EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN WITH LESS RAIN
COVERAGE EXPECTED.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ017>025-031-032.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
IDZ031.

&&

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