Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
312 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE
BEGINNING TO EDGE DOWNWARD TODAY...MOSTLY .80 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE. THE
UPPER LOW IS STILL OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WILL BE MOVING INTO
WYOMING THIS EVENING. VERY WET GROUND STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND IT WILL TAKE LESS PRECIPITATION TO PRODUCE SOME
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ALL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN
EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 140W 50N IS
MAKING GOOD TIME...MODELS HAVE IT CROSSING SOUTH BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND NORTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS AN
OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WHICH
COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND EXTENDED MODELS STILL CUTS
OFF A LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A LITTLE
DELAY IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE EAST
SIDE FO THE STATE ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS OVER DONE BRINGING
THE NEXT WAVE OUT OF THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND DEVELOPING A
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW OVER OREGON BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KLEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS WITH A LESSER DEVELOPED LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A LITTLE MORE RIDGING OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. RS

&&

.AVIATION...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER EAST IDAHO WITH UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE AND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE PRODUCED POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME
EROSION OF THIS STRATUS LAYER AFTER SUNRISE. AIR MASS DESTABILIZES
ONCE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS EXIST ONCE AGAIN WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WITHIN
PRECIPITATION REGIONS. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH
VERY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING IDZ017>025-031-032.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
639 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

IDZ017-020>022-071330-
MINIDOKA ID-JEFFERSON ID-BINGHAM ID-BONNEVILLE ID-POWER ID-CASSIA
ID-BANNOCK ID-BLAINE ID-
639 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL IDAHO
  NORTHEASTERN CASSIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
  SOUTHEASTERN MINIDOKA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
  NORTHWESTERN BANNOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHERN POWER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHWESTERN BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  WESTERN BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 730 AM MDT

LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
   FORT HALL EAGLE LODGE... FORT HALL BUFFALO LODGE... TABER AND
  STERLING...

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. IDAHO
FALLS REPORTED 3/4 MILES VISIBILITY AND BURLEY 4 MILES. EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO BE AROUND UNTIL 900 AM MDT.

LAT...LON 4288 11256 4254 11306 4252 11395 4366 11242
      4362 11179