Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Pocatello, ID

156 
WGUS75 KPIH 092040
FFSPIH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
240 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

IDC013-092315-
/O.CON.KPIH.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-140809T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BLAINE ID-
240 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY...

AT 237 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY...OR 13 MILES WEST OF 
KETCHUM...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF INCLUDE...AREAS IN AND NEAR THE BEAVER 
CREEK BURN AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PERSONS IN AND NEAR THE BEAVER CREEK BURN AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR 
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS...ESPECIALL IN AREAS BELOW THE BURN AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4366 11463 4368 11438 4357 11430 4351 11431
      4347 11452 4350 11458 4352 11459

$$

HEDGES

782 
WGUS75 KPIH 092315
FFSPIH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
515 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

IDC013-092325-
/O.EXP.KPIH.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-140809T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BLAINE ID-
515 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS EXTENDED FOR WEST CENTRAL BLAINE
COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4366 11463 4368 11438 4357 11430 4351 11431
      4347 11452 4350 11458 4352 11459

$$

HUSTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
305 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY. AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS FORMING OFF THE WEST COAST...ONE LAST REAL
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. WHILE A LOT OF
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY STAYS TO OUR WEST...WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
OF THIS SYSTEM TO HELP KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR
DECREASING...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE FROM ALL
OF THE RECENT RAINS. EVEN WITH STORM COVERAGE A BIT LOWER...THE
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL EXISTS. WE WILL BE
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...SPECIFICALLY FOR THE BEAVER CREEK BURN AREA AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
LOCALIZED FLOODING ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO IF A STORM OR
MULTIPLE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AS THE STORM OFFSHORE DEEPENS AND REMAINS
STATIONARY. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
OVER WESTERN AREAS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRAVEL UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
WARMER WITH SOME PLACES HITTING LOW 90S IN THE AFTERNOON. KEYES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING WITH EVOLVING THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST. THEY
ALL PROGRESS THE LOW INLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER HUGE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE MONSOON
MOISTURE IS PUMPED NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY FOR
SOME...ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO HAVE FLOODING CONCERNS AND ALSO
FARMERS/RANCHERS TRYING TO GET HAY UP FROM THEIR FIELDS...THIS
MEANS A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MORE POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL. BEYOND
THAT...THE FORECAST REALLY HINGES ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST AND ALSO WHERE THE MAIN LOW TRACKS. THE ECMWF WANTS TO TAKE
THE SLOW ROAD AND ALSO DRAG THE LOW RIGHT OVER IDAHO THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER PATTERN OBVIOUSLY. THE GFS
WANTS TO TAKE THE LOW NORTH OF US AND BRING KEEP ANY REAL THREAT
OF MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE MONTANA BORDER. FOR NOW...WE OPTED TO
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE HOTTEST PART
OF THE DAY AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WILL COOL BACK DOWN WITH
MORE CLOUDS AROUND AFTER THAT.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...AIR MASS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SLOW DRYING WITH UPPER
RIDGE BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING
TOWARD MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP VCTS AT EACH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING EXCEPT MVFR/IFR DIRECTLY WITHIN
HEAVIER CONVECTION. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO EAST IDAHO. AIR
MASS STILL QUITE MOIST SO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATION REGIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
STILL A POTENTIAL THREAT. BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN RELATIVE BREAK
IN THE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. FLOW SHIFTS MORE
SOUTHERLY INTO MONDAY FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN INTO EAST IDAHO. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
IDZ031.

&&