Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
513 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE CENTERS AROUND WINDING DOWN POPS OVER THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LEADING WAVE MOVES TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS CONTINUING WITH HIGH POPS OVER
MUCH OF OHIO GIVEN CONVERGING ECHOES IN DIFFERING SHEAR REGIMES
FROM CELLS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN WEST VIRGINA AS WELL
AS THOSE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
THAT CUTS THROUGH OHIO.

THE TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR OHIO COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE THE EVENING HOURS. SHEAR VALUES PER MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS OVER OHIO...JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
MAXIMUM OF SHEAR VALUES AND INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION...AS WELL
AS THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM...THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN IN THOSE AREAS. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY EDGES
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ABOUT A COUNTY EVERY FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT THROUGH OHIO...EVEN
AS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES DWINDLE. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY EXPAND A BIT
FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE ADVENT OF A LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE TO FURTHER INDUCE CONVECTION...HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

EVERYTHING SEEMS POISED TO START TO PROGRESS EASTWARD GOING INTO
THURSDAY...WITH WAVES OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
AS PWATS SURGE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES AND A LINGERING RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FOR THE JET OVERHEAD. THIS COULD MEAN AN ENHANCED THREAT
FOR FLOODING OVER AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE TRAINING CONVECTION. GIVEN
THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH...A DECISION ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
WAIT FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST...BASIN
AVERAGED RAINFALL FOR THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE ONE TO TWO
INCH RAIN FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ON THURSDAY MRNG...WITH GRADUAL EWD SHIFT
WITH PROGRESS OF THE UPR TROF.

WITH MUCH OF THE AREA BECOMING MORE SATURATED...FLOODING ISSUES WL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MENTION WL BE
MAINTAINED FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE REGION. LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL SUPPORT SHOWER CHANCES...BUT
POP NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW END.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL START FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WHILE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND MOVE
NORTH...MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND MOVE TO THE EAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DEVELOPS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
215 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041-151815-
GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-
BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
215 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CROSSING
COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON CREEKS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-151815-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-
215 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 155 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CROSSING
COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON CREEKS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

15

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