Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
233 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

The big news in the short term continues to be approach and passage
of a strong cold front this afternoon and evening having the
potential to produce severe weather.

A low pressure system over northern Missouri will track northeast to
east central Wisconsin by midnight. In the process it will drag a
strong cold front across the region. The front is expected to enter
our far western counties around 3 PM and clear our far southeast
counties around 8 PM. Up to this point today, aside from a few
scattered showers, a capping inversion around 750 MB has held
convection at bay. Aside from the possibility of a few discreet
supercells, it appears that the most widespread  thunderstorm
development will be linear (QLCS) along and just ahead of the front
as evidenced by ongoing convection over eastern Missouri. Although
severe thunderstorms are possible just about anywhere prior to
frontal passage, we expect the highest potential for widespread
severe weather to be mainly south and east of the Ohio river after 6
PM.

The main threat with any thunderstorms that become severe will be
damaging wind gusts, but with decent instability for this time of
year and very impressive wind shear, a few discreet tornadic
supercells and embedded tornadoes in the line are certainly not out
of the question.

The threat of showers and thunderstorms diminishes sharply from west
to east through the rest of the evening hours with the passage of
the front. Beyond that high pressure at the surface and near zonal
flow aloft should keep things dry and a little cooler through the
short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

Medium confidence in the long term.

Surface high pressure will build into the region Sunday in the wake
of a reinforcing cold front. The extended init generated low pops
over the area Sunday. The GFS and NAM support this albeit a weak
signal. The ECMWF is much drier Sunday. The models have had a hard
time resolving this weekend weather. Also looking at the forecast
soundings from the aforementioned models they might support a few
flurries/sprinkles but not supportive of any real impact. For these
reasons opted to leave it dry until a little better continuity
exists among the models. Otherwise another low pressure system
passes just south of our area that could try to pump a little
moisture up our way. Will monitor this closely for possible intro of
precip Monday night into Tuesday but dry for now as this is a weak
signal as well. The models are hinting at an increase in moisture
toward the end of next week...this to will be monitored closely.

As for temps we will once again cool back down to below normal with
highs struggling to reach 40 next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

A strong cold front will race across the TAF sites this evening.
Predominant VFR conditions expected with MVFR cigs/vsbys and TSRA
between 21-24Z at KCGI/KPAH and between 23-02Z at KEVV/KOWB, then
becoming SKC from west to east starting at KCGI around 06Z.
Southerly winds at 25-30 knots gusting to 35-40 knots will veer
around to the west starting at KCGI around 23Z, then progressing
eastward across the remaining TAF sites. Westerly winds will drop
off to 10-15 knots starting at KCGI around 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR ILZ075>078-081>083-
     085>087-089>091-093-094.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ080-084-088-092.

MO...WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-212115-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
303 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAXIMIZED
FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM. A SOLID LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER A FEW DISCREET SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF
THE LINE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINE...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY
LEAD TO A FEW FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND THIS
EVENING FOR VERY STRONG NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS. PLEASE CONSULT THE
ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAYVILLE               38.26N 88.00W
02/20/2014                   WHITE              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEMI TRACTOR TRAILER OVERTURNED ALONG INTERSTATE 64.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N EVANSVILLE          38.06N 87.54W
02/20/2014  E60 MPH          VANDERBURGH        IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH REPORTED ALONG INTERSTATE 64.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N EQUALITY            37.78N 88.34W
02/20/2014                   GALLATIN           IL   PUBLIC

            CARPORT BLOWN INTO ROADWAY.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
654 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARMI                   38.09N 88.17W
02/20/2014                   WHITE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LATE REPORT. NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN AND FLAG POLE
            SNAPPED.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
703 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARBONDALE              37.72N 89.22W
02/20/2014                   JACKSON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 SIX FOOT SECTIONS OF FENCE BLOWN DOWN. AWNING ON SECOND
            HOME DETACHED. LATE REPORT.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
716 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HENDERSON               37.84N 87.58W
02/20/2014                   HENDERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TREE.

&&

SMITTY