Alert archive / Kentucky / Flash Flood Warnings in 2014

Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Paducah, KY

April 3, 2014Hopkins County, McLean County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this flash flood warning at Apr 3, 2014, 6:10 PM CDT for Hopkins County, McLean County, Kentucky. It was in force for 110 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 3, 2014, 6:10 PM CDT (23:10 UTC)
Expired: Apr 3, 2014, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 110 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Hopkins County, KY, McLean County, KY

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 118 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -196 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 711 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 269 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 253 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

166 
WGUS53 KPAH 032310
FFWPAH
KYC107-149-040100-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FF.W.0008.140403T2310Z-140404T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
610 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
  MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

* AT 605 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA. SEVERAL 
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE 
ACROSS MCLEAN AND MAINLY NORTHERN HOPKINS COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM. 
RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
  CALHOUN...LIVERMORE...HANSON AND BEECH GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 8711 3741 8710 3739 8729 3731 8734
      3731 8737 3726 8739 3720 8731 3713 8738
      3711 8754 3715 8768 3724 8780 3731 8780
      3732 8785 3757 8738 3761 8749 3763 8750
      3767 8747 3768 8740 3757 8714 3756 8704

$$
PS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Apr 3, 2:52 PM CDT, 3 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 3, 2:52 PM CDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Main concern in the short term is severe weather and flooding
potential tonight.

Over the past 24 hours...three convective complexes have affected
parts of the forecast area. These complexes were forecast very
poorly by the models...including the high res mesoscale models.
Based on the poor track record of the models...there is not a high
degree of confidence in the evolution of convection tonight.

Widespread convection earlier today stabilized much of southern
Illinois...southwest Indiana...and northwest Kentucky. To the
south of this activity...SPC objective analysis charts indicate
surface based capes from 1000 to 2000 j/kg as of 19z...but also
some convective inhibition. NAM/RAP model soundings indicate a
warm layer around 750 to 800 mb that may be capping development.
This warm layer will erode this evening...but then lapse rates
below 850 mb become poor.

By 04z widespread convection will develop or move into the
forecast area as a potent 500 mb shortwave over the Plains lifts
northeast...producing strong deep layer forcing in a very moist
environment. RAP forecast soundings indicate the low level jet
will increase to 60 knots as it shifts east to the Mississippi
River around or shortly after 00z. In general...shear profiles and
hodographs will become more favorable for supercells by
00z...especially west of the Kentucky Lake region. The potential
limiting factor will be low to mid level lapse rates...as noted
above.

Wind fields will become more unidirectional late this
evening...as evidenced by curved hodographs becoming more straight
line. This will result in a transition to a linear /qlcs/ storm
mode...with damaging straight line winds the primary threat.
Isolated qlcs tornadoes will be possible.

Convective complexes over the past 24 hours have produced locally
heavy rainfall...leading to some isolated flash flooding. With a
strong low level jet and unseasonably moist air mass in
place...there is a potential for more heavy rain. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to address this potential. These complexes
have missed most of southeast Missouri...so that area was not
included in the watch.

The cold front will exit the khop/kevv areas by 12z...bringing an
end to all activity. There may be considerable instability
cu/stratocu during the day...per gfs and nam model soundings.
Temps will generally remain steady in the 50s with gusty
northwest winds.

Friday night through Saturday night will be mainly clear and cool
with some potential for frost in the early morning hours. Surface
high pressure will pass over or just north of the forecast area on
Saturday.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

The next weather system takes shape to our south Sunday, and for at
least the second consecutive day, moves in with pcpn Sunday night
and extends that at least through part of early next week.

This happens as a broad long wave trof carves out across the eastern
half of the country, with us in the cool/damp flow underneath. We'll
go ahead and accept the allblended pops for the Sunday night through
Tuesday time period, focusing on the best chance time period Sunday
night as the system lifts out. Elevated instability there continues
to support the isolated mention of thunder we inherited, so we kept
it.

Temps remain in balance with consistently forecast highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. These
represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo norms for this
time of year...though some hint at warming a little toward the end
of the period is noted.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Active convection will take low VFR or MVFR conditions to temporary
IFR conditions. Cold frontal passage tonight will mark most
restrictive flight conditions, with severe weather possible from
late afternoon til system passes. Strong gusty southerlies ahead of
the system will shift to the west late tonight after its passage.
Clouds should disperse tomorrow morning and return to VFR flight
conditions in the wake of the system's departure.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ001>022.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ076-087-111-112.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 3, 9:14 AM CDT, 8 hours 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
914 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
914 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT MAKES
ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE.

IN ADDITION...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MEANS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE OCCURRING AND REPEATING OVER
THE SAME AREAS IN MANY INSTANCES. WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN ON THE
WAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE QUAD
STATE...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SPOTTER ACTIVATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 3, 3:39 PM CDT, 2 hours 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW CARMI             38.10N 88.21W
04/03/2014                   WHITE              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GROVE OF PINE TREES BROKEN OR BLOWN DOWN. ROOF LIFTED AND
            PARTIALLY DISPLACED ON A HOUSE, PART OF A MACHINE SHED
            ROOF BLOWN OFF WITH DOORS BLOWN IN. A GARAGE WAS BLOWN
            MOSTLY DOWN. SOME DEBRIS BLOWN AT LEAST 1/2 MILE AWAY.

&&

RICKS

Local storm report, Apr 3, 4:05 PM CDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
405 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STANLEY                 37.82N 87.24W
04/03/2014                   DAVIESS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIDE STREET FLOODED. CARS TURNING AROUND.

&&

MY

Local storm report, Apr 3, 4:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
421 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     FLOOD            2 NE MOUNT VERNON       38.34N 88.88W
04/03/2014                   JEFFERSON          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.3 INCHES OF RAIN. A CREEK WAS OVERFLOWING IN HIS
            BACKYARD.

&&

DLL

Local storm report, Apr 3, 5:17 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
517 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
04/03/2014                   VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER FLOWING OVER NUMEROUS ROADS IN TOWN. DITCHES
            OVERFLOWING. CREEKS AT BANKFULL.

&&

RICKS

Local storm report, Apr 3, 5:35 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
535 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E EVANSVILLE          37.98N 87.47W
04/03/2014  M5.10 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 11 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

RICKS

Local storm report, Apr 3, 5:49 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
549 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKPORT                37.88N 87.05W
04/03/2014                   SPENCER            IN   PUBLIC

            EXTENSIVE MINOR STREET FLOODING...ROCKPORT CITY PARK HAS
            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS 4.75
            INCHES.

&&

PS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 2, 7:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Marshall	36 min
Apr 2, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Marshall	31 min
Apr 2, 8:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Trigg	21 min
Apr 3, 9:17 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	PAH	Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more	22 hr
Apr 3, 9:33 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union	3 hr
Apr 3, 9:52 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Daviess	3 hr
Apr 3, 10:40 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Crittenden, Livingston, McLean, Webster	3 hr
Apr 3, 12:31 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Henderson, Union	3 hr
Apr 3, 12:49 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Daviess, Henderson	3 hr
Apr 3, 1:01 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Daviess, Henderson, Hopkins, McLean, Webster	119 min
Apr 3, 3:51 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Daviess, Henderson	3 hr
Apr 3, 4:34 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Union	116 min
Apr 3, 5:36 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Union, Webster	3 hr
Apr 3, 6:44 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Daviess, Henderson	12 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2014 Every flash flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.