Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Paducah, KY

503 
WGUS73 KPAH 032218
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
518 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC059-101-032345-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140403T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VANDERBURGH IN-SPENCER IN-POSEY IN-PIKE IN-GIBSON IN-WARRICK IN-
DAVIESS KY-HENDERSON KY-
518 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
WARRICK...GIBSON...PIKE...POSEY...SPENCER AND VANDERBURGH COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND HENDERSON AND DAVIESS COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY...

AT 513 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

SPOTTERS IN EVANSVILLE ARE REPORTING THAT MANY CREEKS ARE AT 
BANKFULL...DITCHES ARE OVERFLOWING AND WATER IS FLOWING OVER MANY 
ROADS. OVER THE PAST HOUR THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE 
OHIO RIVER AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 630 PM. RAIN 
SHOULD BE DECREASING SOMEWHAT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 IN SOUTHERN 
INDIANA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE KASSON...FOLSOMVILLE...
BLAIRSVILLE...WINSLOW...SANTA CLAUS...PRINCETON...POSEYVILLE...
PETERSBURG...PATOKA...OWENSVILLE...OAKLAND CITY...NEW HARMONY...
MELODY HILL...LYNNVILLE...HAUBSTADT...FORT BRANCH...EVANSVILLE...
DARMSTADT...DALE...CYNTHIANA...CHANDLER AND BOONVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 8698 3791 8692 3780 8682 3767 8681
      3756 8703 3768 8740 3764 8773 3776 8776
      3790 8793 3782 8790 3781 8791 3789 8807
      3789 8802 3792 8807 3837 8781 3852 8754
      3853 8709 3821 8707 3821 8678 3800 8676

$$
PS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Main concern in the short term is severe weather and flooding
potential tonight.

Over the past 24 hours...three convective complexes have affected
parts of the forecast area. These complexes were forecast very
poorly by the models...including the high res mesoscale models.
Based on the poor track record of the models...there is not a high
degree of confidence in the evolution of convection tonight.

Widespread convection earlier today stabilized much of southern
Illinois...southwest Indiana...and northwest Kentucky. To the
south of this activity...SPC objective analysis charts indicate
surface based capes from 1000 to 2000 j/kg as of 19z...but also
some convective inhibition. NAM/RAP model soundings indicate a
warm layer around 750 to 800 mb that may be capping development.
This warm layer will erode this evening...but then lapse rates
below 850 mb become poor.

By 04z widespread convection will develop or move into the
forecast area as a potent 500 mb shortwave over the Plains lifts
northeast...producing strong deep layer forcing in a very moist
environment. RAP forecast soundings indicate the low level jet
will increase to 60 knots as it shifts east to the Mississippi
River around or shortly after 00z. In general...shear profiles and
hodographs will become more favorable for supercells by
00z...especially west of the Kentucky Lake region. The potential
limiting factor will be low to mid level lapse rates...as noted
above.

Wind fields will become more unidirectional late this
evening...as evidenced by curved hodographs becoming more straight
line. This will result in a transition to a linear /qlcs/ storm
mode...with damaging straight line winds the primary threat.
Isolated qlcs tornadoes will be possible.

Convective complexes over the past 24 hours have produced locally
heavy rainfall...leading to some isolated flash flooding. With a
strong low level jet and unseasonably moist air mass in
place...there is a potential for more heavy rain. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to address this potential. These complexes
have missed most of southeast Missouri...so that area was not
included in the watch.

The cold front will exit the khop/kevv areas by 12z...bringing an
end to all activity. There may be considerable instability
cu/stratocu during the day...per gfs and nam model soundings.
Temps will generally remain steady in the 50s with gusty
northwest winds.

Friday night through Saturday night will be mainly clear and cool
with some potential for frost in the early morning hours. Surface
high pressure will pass over or just north of the forecast area on
Saturday.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

The next weather system takes shape to our south Sunday, and for at
least the second consecutive day, moves in with pcpn Sunday night
and extends that at least through part of early next week.

This happens as a broad long wave trof carves out across the eastern
half of the country, with us in the cool/damp flow underneath. We'll
go ahead and accept the allblended pops for the Sunday night through
Tuesday time period, focusing on the best chance time period Sunday
night as the system lifts out. Elevated instability there continues
to support the isolated mention of thunder we inherited, so we kept
it.

Temps remain in balance with consistently forecast highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. These
represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo norms for this
time of year...though some hint at warming a little toward the end
of the period is noted.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Active convection will take low VFR or MVFR conditions to temporary
IFR conditions. Cold frontal passage tonight will mark most
restrictive flight conditions, with severe weather possible from
late afternoon til system passes. Strong gusty southerlies ahead of
the system will shift to the west late tonight after its passage.
Clouds should disperse tomorrow morning and return to VFR flight
conditions in the wake of the system's departure.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ001>022.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ076-087-111-112.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
914 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
914 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT MAKES
ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE.

IN ADDITION...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MEANS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE OCCURRING AND REPEATING OVER
THE SAME AREAS IN MANY INSTANCES. WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN ON THE
WAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE QUAD
STATE...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SPOTTER ACTIVATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1045 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ZEIGLER                 37.90N 89.05W
04/03/2014  E2.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.24 INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1047 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARMI                   38.09N 88.17W
04/03/2014                   WHITE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE RUNNING WATER MOVING ACROSS THEM.
            THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF THE COUNTY.

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ELDORADO                37.81N 88.44W
04/03/2014                   SALINE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER FLOWING OVER SEVERAL ROADS IN THE CITY LIMITS

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
129 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SORGHO                  37.75N 87.25W
04/03/2014                   DAVIESS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS UNDERWATER THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEWBURGH                37.95N 87.40W
04/03/2014  E1.50 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW CARMI             38.10N 88.21W
04/03/2014                   WHITE              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GROVE OF PINE TREES BROKEN OR BLOWN DOWN. ROOF LIFTED AND
            PARTIALLY DISPLACED ON A HOUSE, PART OF A MACHINE SHED
            ROOF BLOWN OFF WITH DOORS BLOWN IN. A GARAGE WAS BLOWN
            MOSTLY DOWN. SOME DEBRIS BLOWN AT LEAST 1/2 MILE AWAY.

&&

RICKS