Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Paducah, KY

965 
WGUS73 KPAH 042300
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
600 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ILC059-065-165-050100-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-140605T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SALINE IL-GALLATIN IL-HAMILTON IL-
600 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
GALLATIN AND NORTHERN SALINE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

AT 559 PM...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HARRISBURG FROM EQUALITY TO 
SHAWNEETOWN. THESE REPEAT HEAVY RAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE 
FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3793 8837 3791 8837 3792 8813 3785 8806
      3784 8803 3782 8804 3783 8809 3780 8808
      3780 8803 3773 8808 3767 8816 3771 8871
      3794 8870

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

Thunderstorms will continue to organize and move east along a
southward moving cold front this afternoon and early this evening.
Tornado watch will remain in effect for any given area until the
front passes south of the region and takes the threat with it.
Heavy rainfall will also be a concern as PWATS values have pooled
to near 2 inches. The rain/storm chcs will decrease markedly later
tonight as the front continues slowly south into AR/TN.

The main forecast concern for the remainder of the short period
will be with the repeated risk for thunderstorms/heavy
rain...mainly over se MO as the front stalls out over AR/nrn MS.
Several short waves will top the mid level ridge anchored over the
nw Gulf Coast, and may lead to more than one MCS type storm
clusters along and north of the stalled sfc front Thu/Fri.

Temperatures should be noticeably cooler Thu/Fri as we will be on
the cool side of the front. In fact...drier air working into most
areas east of the MS River will make conditions a bit less humid
as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

While the med range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with
the overall flow over the CONUS, individual runs have some
differences in the timing of pcpn-generating impulses. At the start
of the extended period, the PAH forecast area will probably be in
the warm sector of a sfc frontal system induced by a mid level
shrtwv moving ewd through the zonal flow aloft.

The timing of the development and movement of the initial sfc low
differs among med range models, but the best guess is that it should
be moving across central to nrn parts of MO and IL Sat night,
meaning the passage of a cold front sometime on Sun. This boundary
will provide some focus for shower and tstm development later on Sat
and part of Sun, which will allow likely PoPs for parts of our
region especially ahead of it.

The frontal boundary may hang up in or near the srn border of the
PAH forecast area into early next week, and then may be acted on by
several sfc waves. A more substantial mid level shrtwv is shown in
the model data to be in our vicinity from Tue on, gradually moving
ewd by Wed and, as a result, the aforementioned frontal boundary may
move newd as a warm front. Confidence is not very good at this time
as to the timing of all these features. One thing is for sure, Tue
night is currently the only 12 hr time frame with no PoPs mentioned
for most of the region. Severe weather cannot be ruled out in the
extended, namely over the weekend. It will be dependent on how the
convective systems evolve.

While the sun will be seen from time to time, there should be plenty
of clouds around along with the convection. Expect near seasonable
temps during the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

Shra/tstms will develop ahead of a cold front, becoming widespread
by from 21z-04z. Included VCTS all sites around 20z, and went with
TEMPO groups between 22z-03z. These times may be extended/adjusted
2 hours either side of that window. Tstms will produce MVFR to
possibly IFR conditions. Away from storms, VFR will prevail, with
occasional MVFR. Winds will be southwest at 10 to 15 kts with some
higher gusts, and even gustier near storms, then shift to the
northwest to north and decrease between 07z-11z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...RST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1222 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-050830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1222 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED
TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OR PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MOST COMMON HAZARDS. HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MEFFERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
359 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ILZ075-080>084-INZ085>088-042200-
FRANKLIN IL-HAMILTON IL-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-PERRY IL-POSEY
IN-SPENCER IN-VANDERBURGH IN-WARRICK IN-WHITE IL-
359 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON...FRANKLIN...EASTERN
PERRY AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY
IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WARRICK...POSEY...SPENCER AND VANDERBURGH
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
64...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
401 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             3 SSE MOUNT VERNON      38.28N 88.89W
06/04/2014  M0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL EAST OF INTERSTATE 57.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
415 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DAHLGREN                38.20N 88.68W
06/04/2014                   HAMILTON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE COMMUNITY.

&&

GREGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MCLEANSBORO             38.09N 88.53W
06/04/2014  M1.20 INCH       HAMILTON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            20 MINUTE ACCUMULATION.

&&

GREGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
439 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     CROSSVILLE              38.16N 88.06W
06/04/2014  E55 MPH          WHITE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
512 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PIOPOLIS                38.18N 88.56W
06/04/2014                   HAMILTON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GRAIN BIN DAMAGED AND BLOWN OVER. CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED
            FLOODING.

&&

SMITTY