Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Paducah, KY

078 
WGUS73 KPAH 042204
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
504 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ILC055-065-081-050000-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-140605T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON IL-FRANKLIN IL-HAMILTON IL-
504 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
HAMILTON...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

AT 503 PM...RADAR SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF 
MACEDONIA AND MCLEANSBORO. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY 
SOAKED GROUNDS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 8838 3793 8837 3795 8915 3803 8914
      3806 8912 3810 8912 3810 8913 3812 8913
      3813 8915 3826 8914

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

Thunderstorms will continue to organize and move east along a
southward moving cold front this afternoon and early this evening.
Tornado watch will remain in effect for any given area until the
front passes south of the region and takes the threat with it.
Heavy rainfall will also be a concern as PWATS values have pooled
to near 2 inches. The rain/storm chcs will decrease markedly later
tonight as the front continues slowly south into AR/TN.

The main forecast concern for the remainder of the short period
will be with the repeated risk for thunderstorms/heavy
rain...mainly over se MO as the front stalls out over AR/nrn MS.
Several short waves will top the mid level ridge anchored over the
nw Gulf Coast, and may lead to more than one MCS type storm
clusters along and north of the stalled sfc front Thu/Fri.

Temperatures should be noticeably cooler Thu/Fri as we will be on
the cool side of the front. In fact...drier air working into most
areas east of the MS River will make conditions a bit less humid
as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

While the med range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with
the overall flow over the CONUS, individual runs have some
differences in the timing of pcpn-generating impulses. At the start
of the extended period, the PAH forecast area will probably be in
the warm sector of a sfc frontal system induced by a mid level
shrtwv moving ewd through the zonal flow aloft.

The timing of the development and movement of the initial sfc low
differs among med range models, but the best guess is that it should
be moving across central to nrn parts of MO and IL Sat night,
meaning the passage of a cold front sometime on Sun. This boundary
will provide some focus for shower and tstm development later on Sat
and part of Sun, which will allow likely PoPs for parts of our
region especially ahead of it.

The frontal boundary may hang up in or near the srn border of the
PAH forecast area into early next week, and then may be acted on by
several sfc waves. A more substantial mid level shrtwv is shown in
the model data to be in our vicinity from Tue on, gradually moving
ewd by Wed and, as a result, the aforementioned frontal boundary may
move newd as a warm front. Confidence is not very good at this time
as to the timing of all these features. One thing is for sure, Tue
night is currently the only 12 hr time frame with no PoPs mentioned
for most of the region. Severe weather cannot be ruled out in the
extended, namely over the weekend. It will be dependent on how the
convective systems evolve.

While the sun will be seen from time to time, there should be plenty
of clouds around along with the convection. Expect near seasonable
temps during the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

Shra/tstms will develop ahead of a cold front, becoming widespread
by from 21z-04z. Included VCTS all sites around 20z, and went with
TEMPO groups between 22z-03z. These times may be extended/adjusted
2 hours either side of that window. Tstms will produce MVFR to
possibly IFR conditions. Away from storms, VFR will prevail, with
occasional MVFR. Winds will be southwest at 10 to 15 kts with some
higher gusts, and even gustier near storms, then shift to the
northwest to north and decrease between 07z-11z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...RST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1222 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-050830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1222 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED
TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OR PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MOST COMMON HAZARDS. HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MEFFERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1041 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT ERIE              38.51N 88.23W
06/04/2014  M1.50 INCH       WAYNE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 1/2 TO 1 3/4 INCH OF RAIN FELL IN 20 MINUTES. MINOR
            FLOODING. SMALL TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1114 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TORNADO          1 SE REIDLAND           37.00N 88.51W
06/02/2014                   MCCRACKEN          KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF1 TORNADO. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 90 MPH. PATH LENGTH 1.75
            MILES. PATH WIDTH 150 YARDS. A POLE BARN SUSTAINED
            SUBSTANTIAL ROOF DAMAGE INCLUDING SOME STRUTCURAL DAMAGE
            TO THE RAFTERS. DEBRIS WAS BLOWN MORE THAN 1/2 MILE AWAY.
            ONE HOME SUSTAINED LOSS OF A LARGE SECTION OF SHINGLES
            AND THE ROOF VENT. DOZENS OF TREES OR TREE LIMBS WERE
            ALSO BLOWN DOWN.

&&

GREGM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
334 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-050200-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
334 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...STORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST...THE
OVERALL AREA OF STORMS WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.STORM
WATER SYSTEMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME INUNDATED AND WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO DRAIN AWAY THE WATER FAST ENOUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED
RISK OF FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS INCREASING THE RISK FOR HYDROPLANING AS WELL AS QUICK
RISES ON DITCHES AND SMALLER CREEKS.

RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS. SOME AREAS MAY QUICKLY PICK UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. BE AWARE OF RAPIDLY RISING WATER. FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF
YOU COME ACROSS A FLOODED AREA...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

ML