Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS FROM AROUND 03Z TO 14Z. ADDITIONAL
STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE STORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COLORADO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND FORM A LARGER AREA OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. IT SHOULD MOVE INTO NW OK LATE
THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR NORTHERN HALF OF OK
BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OK WILL PROVIDE AN AREA FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, UPPER FLOW BECOMES VERY LIGHT
AND NO SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LONGER APPARENT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE LOW THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY OVER RAIN IN
THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY KEEPS CHANCES LOW, AND LATEST TRENDS ARE
NOT TO INCREASE THEM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  86  70  86 /  60  60  40  40
HOBART OK         70  88  69  88 /  60  50  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  92  71  90 /  30  50  50  40
GAGE OK           66  86  66  87 /  70  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  86  68  86 /  60  60  20  30
DURANT OK         73  89  71  87 /  20  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

84/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231030-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
407 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...
TO CLINTON... AND TO MANGUM OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH... HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TWO INCHES... AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
SUNSET ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP...
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED... BUT SMALL HAIL... GUSTY WINDS...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS... AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AFFECT
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TWO INCHES.

MEANWHILE... THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO
ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT
WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THESE STORMS
ENTER INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
POSSIBLE. AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER... A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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