Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE MCS OVER KANSAS WILL FACE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL SLOW AND
LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE COMPLEX. STILL...IT APPEARS TO
HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME THE CAP AT LEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ONE OR TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES OF OKLAHOMA. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS ARE SUPPORTED BY ANALYSES OF WIND SHEAR...CIN...AND
INSTABILITY IN SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA
BY MORNING. BY THE TIME IT REACHES CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE.

THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...ARE
HANDLED ABOUT AS WELL AS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
WE MAY MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS LATER TO DEAL WITH THE EFFECTS OF
THE MCS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. MVFR OVERCAST IS LIKELY IN
THUNDERSTORMS AREAS AND SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS...SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG
0-6 KM SHEAR 40 TO 55 KT...WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND PERHAPS INTO THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.
COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS THE CAP MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PANHANDLES WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST...AROUND +14C.
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN KANSAS. THESE STORMS
COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 7 PM. VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LOW DUE TO HIGH CLOUD BASES. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGESTED THIS
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR.

LATER THIS EVENING...MORE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS/HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HINT THAT A LARGE MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS...POSSIBLY
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS STATE LINES. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS COMPLEX WILL GO AS
CAPPING IS STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA COMPARED TO KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX
MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WOULD HELP TO KEEP THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY
INTO A BOWING SQUALL LINE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. EXPANDED
RAIN CHANCES A BIT SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF A ALVA TO OKLAHOMA
CITY TO ADA LINE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND
CAP STRENGTHENS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE CENTURY MARK MAY BE REACHED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
AND A WEAK BOUNDARY AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  90  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  93  71  95 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  95  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           67  92  68  98 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  87  71  92 /  70  30  20  10
DURANT OK         72  87  72  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/09

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