Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE MCS OVER KANSAS WILL FACE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL SLOW AND
LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE COMPLEX. STILL...IT APPEARS TO
HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME THE CAP AT LEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ONE OR TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES OF OKLAHOMA. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS ARE SUPPORTED BY ANALYSES OF WIND SHEAR...CIN...AND
INSTABILITY IN SHOWING THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA
BY MORNING. BY THE TIME IT REACHES CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IT IS
UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE.

THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...ARE
HANDLED ABOUT AS WELL AS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
WE MAY MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS LATER TO DEAL WITH THE EFFECTS OF
THE MCS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. MVFR OVERCAST IS LIKELY IN
THUNDERSTORMS AREAS AND SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS...SUPERCELLS DUE TO STRONG
0-6 KM SHEAR 40 TO 55 KT...WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND PERHAPS INTO THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.
COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AS THE CAP MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PANHANDLES WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST...AROUND +14C.
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN KANSAS. THESE STORMS
COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 7 PM. VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
LOW DUE TO HIGH CLOUD BASES. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGESTED THIS
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR.

LATER THIS EVENING...MORE NUMEROUS STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS/HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HINT THAT A LARGE MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER KANSAS...POSSIBLY
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS STATE LINES. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THIS COMPLEX WILL GO AS
CAPPING IS STRONGER OVER OKLAHOMA COMPARED TO KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX
MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WOULD HELP TO KEEP THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY
INTO A BOWING SQUALL LINE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. EXPANDED
RAIN CHANCES A BIT SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ON MONDAY...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EAST OF A ALVA TO OKLAHOMA
CITY TO ADA LINE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND
CAP STRENGTHENS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG. OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE CENTURY MARK MAY BE REACHED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
AND A WEAK BOUNDARY AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF STORMS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  90  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  93  71  95 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  95  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           67  92  68  98 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  87  71  92 /  70  30  20  10
DURANT OK         72  87  72  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANLDES.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE IN
WESTERN KANSAS AND MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  STORMS MAY ENTER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING.  LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A CHEYENNE TO ENID AND PONCA CITY LINE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF BEING IMPACTED BY SEVERE STORMS.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING:

GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL...
WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM:

7 PM TO MIDNIGHT...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT... BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

KURTZ/BT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
923 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

OKZ004-005-020300-
HARPER OK-WOODS OK-
923 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HARPER AND NORTHERN
WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 919 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES WEST OF AETNA TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ACRES...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR IF STORMS THREATEN YOU.

&&

LAT...LON 3684 9855 3678 9920 3679 9926 3680 9929
      3678 9929 3677 9936 3699 9976 3700 9859
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 286DEG 39KT 3705 9911 3706 9978

WR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     16 NNE FREEDOM          36.98N 99.00W
06/01/2014  M74 MPH          WOODS              OK   MESONET

            MAY RANCH MESONET

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND GST     16 NNE FREEDOM          36.98N 99.00W
06/01/2014  M70 MPH          WOODS              OK   MESONET

            MAY RANCH MESONET

&&

DW