Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
741 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX... MESOSCALE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGRESSING E/SE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY RESOLVED BY MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR. OBS FROM SWRN KS... KLBL... AND THE
OKPH... GUYMON... SHOW WINDS VEERED TO THE N/NW. A DISTINCTIVE
LINE OF CU ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON VIS SAT...
JUST NOW PUSHING INTO BEAVER COUNTY. A CU FIELD CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS WELL... ACROSS THE ERN TXPH AND WRN
OK. BACKED OFF POPS IN THE NW THROUGH 03Z... CURIOUS TO SEE HOW
THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERACT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT
SURGES INTO FAR NWRN OK. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TRANSPORT
UPPER 50S/MID 60S DPTS... AND INSTABILITY IS NOT AN ISSUE... WITH
1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE... WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
ACROSS WRN OK NEAR 40-45KTS. HOWEVER... LCLS REMAIN HIGH GIVEN
WARM BL. IF ANY UPDRAFTS GO... EXPECT THEM TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH
BASED THIS EVENING... POSING A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THROUGH
SUNSET... STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO ACROSS FAR NWRN OK WHERE
THE DRYLINE/FRONT WILL INTERACT AND LCLS LOWER SLIGHTLY THROUGH
SUNSET... BUT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW... DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED... WITH BETTER
CHANCES LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH... WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLJ... WILL MAKE
FOR A SLOW PROGRESSING LINE/CLUSTER OF CONVECTION E/SE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STORMS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-3KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 35KTS WITH MUCAPES IN THE
2000-2500 RANGE WILL SUPPORT A COMPLEX/LINE OF STORMS MOVING E/SE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH A LINEAR STRUCTURE... EXPECT A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE
LINE/AREA OF CONVECTION.

GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS COMPLEX... FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND RURAL
AREAS. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADWAYS... YOU SHOULD TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN KS TO LOW IN SW KS WITH
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.
STORMS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN SW KS.
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE CWA WILL BE IN THE NW CORNER THIS
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT. SOME HI RES
MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING WEST AND NORTH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES SEWD INTO OK. SEVERE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SLOW SEWD ADVANCE ON
MONDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHIFTING TO THE SE HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCREASING AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE PARALLEL TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF
THE AREA AND SECONDARY IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. NWLY UPPER FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH MINOR IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH...OTHERWISE GENLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  72  46  68 /  40  70  20  10
HOBART OK         66  73  42  68 /  60  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  77  48  70 /  40  70  30  20
GAGE OK           53  66  37  66 /  60  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  72  43  67 /  60  60  10  10
DURANT OK         71  80  51  65 /  10  90  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>019-021>024-
     027-034-035-038.

TX...NONE.
&&

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