Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
514 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 253.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 256 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...

..POSSIBLE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY FOR THE WEST HALF OF MIDDLE TN...

LOW PRESSURE AND OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER NE MISSOURI CONTINUES
TO SPIN AND MOVE EASTWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT NORTHWARD
THROUGH MIDDLE TN. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOW
70S ACROSS MIDDLE/SRN MIDDLE TN...CREATING SOUPY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE OLD
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS HELPING TO REGENERATE STRONG STORMS IN FAR
SRN IL AS WELL AS WRN TN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WELL AHEAD OF MORE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT. THESE ARE QUICKLY
APPROACHING THE AREA...AND THINK ONSET OVER OUR FAR WRN/NWRN CWA
COULD BE AS EARLY AS 430 PM. BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM
4-50KTS...PLENTY FOR SOME SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS ARE
FAIRLY WET THOUGH...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING HAIL TO BE A
THREAT...SO THINKING THAT WET MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. THUS...A SEVERE T-STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WRN/NWRN PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL
9PM. THINKING THE LINE OF STORMS NEAR PADUCAH WILL EXPAND AND THAT
COULD BE THE MAIN FEATURE...APPROACHING I-65 BY 8PM ROUGHLY...AND
MOVING QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE REST OF MIDDLE TN...SHOULD IT HOLD
TOGETHER THAT LONG. HAVE HIGH CHC POPS EAST...AND LIKELY POPS IN
AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING POPS
QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND AND CALMING
WINDS TOWARDS DAWN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COULD HAVE PATCHY
DENSE FOG TOWARDS MORNING. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THEREAFTER...WE MAY GET A BREAK IN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS LATE
TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS...WHERE SOME COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ANOTHER SYSTEM/COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FRIDAY...QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
HAVE EXTENDING POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER BY THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
SHOULD START TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AND HOPEFULLY START TO BRING AN
END TO OUR STORMY PATTERN. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE IN TEMPS GIVEN THE
AMPLE RAIN CHANCES.

THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUING IN A MOIST AIRMASS...AMPLE RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAVEL OR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. THOUGH WE CAN PINPOINT AN AREA WITH A WATCH...STAY
ABREAST OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1032 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-081015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
1032 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
A THREAT WITH ANY SLOW MOVING OR PERSISTENT STORMS...AND SOME
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OR
HAIL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW MOVING OR PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SPOTTERS CAN MAKE REPORTS VIA TWITTER USING HASHTAG #TSPOTTER

TO MAKE A REPORT VIA FACEBOOK GO TO:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NASHVILLE.GOV

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
343 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W CENTERVILLE         35.79N  87.54W
06/05/2014                   HICKMAN            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** VEHICLE SWEPT OFF ROAD NEAR BEAVER
            CREEK DAM IN CENTERVILLE. 1 FATALITY

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1400389

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
502 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

TNZ005-006-023>025-056>058-093-094-072245-
DICKSON-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
STEWART-WAYNE-
502 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...HICKMAN...HOUSTON...
HUMPHREYS...LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...STEWART AND WAYNE
COUNTIES...

AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CROSSING THE RIVER SHORTLY AND INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ONE SEVERE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
STEWART COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3667 8786 3664 8784 3665 8743 3500 8746
      3500 8798 3529 8799 3530 8802 3539 8803
      3541 8798 3546 8805 3549 8799 3553 8798
      3561 8804 3572 8804 3591 8793 3598 8803
      3617 8793 3631 8796 3644 8806 3668 8807

BOYD