Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
655 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

OBVIOUS NEAR TERM CONCERN IS POTENTIAL SVR WX OUTBREAK THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. CURRENTLY...REGIONAL OBS WERE CLEARLY SHOWING A VERY
INTENSE...NEARLY STAGNANT..BAROCLINIC ZONE PARALLEL TO AN INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM ERN IA TO WRN KS. ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH
OF THE BNDRY CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZED IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING
ALONG WITH STOUT LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT UNDERWAY...PWS VALUES AROUND
1.5" SO FAR....PUSHING SBCAPE TO 4000J/KG. WITH QUITE INTENSE EFF
SRH IN PLACE AS WELL...ELEMENTS OVERLAPPING FOR POSSIBLE TORNADIC
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO FOCUSED VERY CLOSE TO THE SRN CWA.

JUST A MATTER OF TIME NOW FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE FROM ABOUT CNTRL KS
TO NERN NEB ALONG SFC BNDRY. RAP13 ADVERTISING 0-1KM EFF SRH/MEAN
LYR LCL/EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TOR
DEVELOPMENT THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO...GIVEN HIGH
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE CONTENT/PCPN EFFICIENCY...IT IS QUITE
PROBABLE OCCASIONAL PDS OF HVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING THRU TONIGHT. THUS IN ADDITION TO TOR WATCH...HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS WELL. PCPN
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THEN BY EARLY MON EVENING.

DRY AND COOL THEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE WAS
REMOVING POPS ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOCUS FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...COOL AIR
MASS/BELOW NORM TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED PDS WITH
LARGE/DEEP UPPER TROF PRETTY MUCH THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRA CURRENTLY PUSHING EWD THRU ERN NEB
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THREAT FOR STRONG/SVR TSRA
TO CONTINUE THRU REST OF THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA. BY 12Z MON...IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL LATE
MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEN THRU MON AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NEZ015-032>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
429 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045-
050>053-065>068-078-088>093-121130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-THURSTON-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-
COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-
LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-
RICHARDSON-
429 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY
THIS EVENING.

SEVERE STORM ARE LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH STOUT ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN PLACE...SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO...GIVEN THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE
REGION...IT IS QUITE PROBABLE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. VOLUNTEER SPOTTERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA SHOULD BE READY FOR IMMEDIATE DEPLOYMENT.

ALSO...ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NEZ011-012-016-017-121130-
KNOX-CEDAR-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-
429 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY.

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