Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
410 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-011115-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
410 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THROUGH 700 PM. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH MOST STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE CONFIGURATION BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

MINOR FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG SOME SMALL STREAMS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THAT FLOODING MAY BE AGGRAVATED OR NEW
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA AND FOR THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
344 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NEZ011-012-016>018-031-312130-
CEDAR NE-MADISON NE-ANTELOPE NE-WAYNE NE-PIERCE NE-KNOX NE-
344 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CEDAR...EAST CENTRAL
ANTELOPE...SOUTHEASTERN KNOX...NORTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE AND PIERCE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 343 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MEADOW GROVE...OR 19 MILES WEST OF NORFOLK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIERCE...RANDOLPH...OSMOND...MEADOW GROVE...HADAR...CARROLL...
TILDEN...MAGNET...FOSTER...MCLEAN...SHOLES...WILLOW CREEK STATE
RECREATION AREA AND THE HIGHWAY 81 AND 20 JUNCTION.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4248 9750 4224 9706 4196 9785 4207 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 240DEG 49KT 4207 9779

KERN

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