Alert archive / California / River Flood Warnings in 2014

River Flood Warning 2, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

December 11, 2014Sonoma County, California

NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued this river flood warning at Dec 11, 2014, 9:24 AM PST for Sonoma County, California. It took effect at Dec 12, 2014, 1:52 AM PST. It was in force for 37 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 11, 2014, 9:24 AM PST (17:24 UTC)
In effect from: Dec 12, 2014, 1:52 AM PST
Expired: Dec 13, 2014, 2:25 PM PST
In force: 37 hr
Issued by: NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Moderate

County Sonoma County, CA

The radar

The Sacramento radar (KDAX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Russian River at Guerneville (GUEC1). The gauge peaked at 33.41 ft at Dec 12, 2014, 12:00 PM PST.

Action stage: 29 ft
Minor stage: 32 ft
Moderate stage: 35 ft
Major stage: 40 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 11467002, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

940
WGUS46 KMTR 111724
FLWMTR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
924 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS
ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN CALIFORNIA...

NAPA RIVER NR ST HELENA
RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE

INTENSE RAINFALL TODAY, ALREADY CAUSING RAPID RISES IN STAGE ON THE NAPA AND RUSSIAN RIVERS, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. STAGE IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON THE NAPA RIVER NEAR ST. HELENA, WHILE DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS NEAR THE CITY OF NAPA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE MONITOR STAGE BUT NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. ALREADY, SMALL CREEK AND URBAN FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS OF NAPA VALLEY, INCLUDING FLOODING OF SULPHUR CREEK IN ST. HELENA.

SIMILARY, THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER NEAR GUERNEVILLE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE AS PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF IS BEING GENERATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WATERSHED, THROUGHOUT MENDOCINO AND SONOMA COUNTIES. SMALL CREEK FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN TRIBUTARY DRAINAGES OF THE RUSSIAN INCLUDING THE LAGUNA DE SANTA ROSA AREA, MARK WEST CREEK, FOSS CREEK IN HEALDSBURG, AND NUMEROUS OTHER LOCATIONS.

CAC055-121324-
/O.NEW.KMTR.FL.W.0001.141211T2136Z-141212T1324Z/
/SHEC1.3.ER.141211T2136Z.141211T2300Z.141212T0124Z.NR/
924 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE NAPA RIVER NR ST HELENA
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
* AT 08AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS...12.7 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET
* THE NAPA RIVER NR ST HELENA IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.8 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* AT A STAGE OF 19.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS UPPER NAPA VALLEY WILL OCCUR,
MAKING ALL TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. MAJOR TO DISASTROUS FLOODING AFFECTING
ALL TOWNS IN THE REACH.
* AT A STAGE OF 18.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS LOWER AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG
THE REACH. WIDESPREAD CROP LOSSES AND EROSION OF LAND. MANY PRIMARY
AND MOST SECONDARY ROADS WILL FLOOD, MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT TO
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
* AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH
INCLUDING THE LOWEST AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG THE REACH. MANY RURAL
AREAS INCLUDING SOME PRIMARY ROADS AND MANY SECONDARY ROADS WILL
HAVE MINOR FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3860 12265 3865 12262 3849 12239 3843 12244
3852 12253 3860 12265

CAC097-121724-
/O.NEW.KMTR.FL.W.0002.141212T0952Z-141213T2225Z/
/GUEC1.2.ER.141212T0952Z.141212T2200Z.141213T1025Z.NO/
924 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE
* FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 08AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS...13.4 FEET
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 37.6 FEET BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.THE RIVER
WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 39.0 FEET...WEST OF DUNCAN MILLS HWY 116 IS CLOSED. IN HACIENDA
RIVER ROAD FLOODS. IN RIO NIDO CANYON 7 ROAD AT THE MINITURE GOLF
COURSE FLOODS. IN GUERNEVILLE THE TRIPLE R RESORT BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 38.0 FEET...IN DUNCAN MILLS FREEZEOUT ROAD AT MOSCOW ROAD
FLOODS. IN GUERNEVILLE PARK CAZADERO ROAD AT HWY 116 FLOODS.
* AT 37.0 FEET...IN FORESTVILLE MARABEL ROAD AT RIVER ROAD FLOODS. IN
GUERNEVILLE RIVER ROAD EAST OF GUERNEVILLE FLOODS. MILL STREET AND
5TH STREET FLOOD. IN MONTE RIO RIVER BLVD EAST OF MONTE RIO FLOODS.
* AT 36.0 FEET...IN FORESTVILLE MARABEL PARK RESORT AND MARABEL
TRAILER PARK FLOOD. IN GUERNEVILLE FERN ROAD AT HWY 116 FLOODS.
* AT 35.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER
RUSSIAN RIVER. NUMEROUS BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES IN THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF TOWNS WITHIN THE REACH ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD. IN
GUERNEVILLE BROOKSIDE RESORT BEGINS TO FLOOD. MORE EXTENSIVE
FLOODING OCCURS AT PARKERS RESORT. IN NORTHWOOD LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE
FLOODS.
* AT 34.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE FLOODING BEGINS AT JOHNSONS RESORT,
PARKERS RESORT, CREEKSIDE RESORT AND RIVERSIDE PARK. IN NORTHWOOD
LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 33.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 116 AND DRAKE
RD IS CLOSED. IN MONTE RIO WILLOW AND ALDER STREETS FLOOD. IN
FORESTVILLE MARABEL TRAILER PARK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
RD IS CLOSED. MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
* AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING. LOWER MILL STREET IN
GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO
FLOOD.
* AT 29.0 FEET...MONITOR STAGE.

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
3847 12298 3841 12310

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD PREPARE FOR FLOOD
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. FOLLOW EMERGENCY
OFFICIAL INSTRUCTIONS.

RIVER FLOODING CAN CAUSE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS LIKE BANK COLLAPSE AND
SHIFTING CHANNELS. AVOID AREAS ADJACENT TO A FLOODING RIVER SINCE THE
EARTH UNDERNEATH MAY BE ERODED. DO NOT LET CHILDREN PLAY NEAR
FLOODWATERS...ESPECIALLY AROUND CULVERTS AND STORM DRAINS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD PRONE AREAS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...OR GO
AROUND BARRICADES. THE ROAD AHEAD MAY BE UNDERMINED OR WASHED OUT AND
THE WATER DEPTH TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.

FOR THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR TUNE TO
YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO STATION. INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM
THE NWS WEBSITE AT WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/MTR

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM LOCAL TIME OR
SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

8 follow-up statements

299
WGUS86 KMTR 112038
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
1238 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
CALIFORNIA...

THE NAPA RIVER NR ST HELENA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
CALIFORNIA...

RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE

Rain rates have tapered off in the Napa River basin, and in general, stream flow
in most tributary creeks and the upper portions of the Napa River are either cresting or beginning to recede. This includes the St. Helena gaging location. Peak flow and stage reached at St. Helena was just below official flood stage. For these reasons, NWS is cancelling the Flood Warning for the St. Helena area on the Napa River.

We are continuing to issue a Flood Warning for the Russian River near Guerneville (Johnson's Beach and local areas) even though rain rates have tapered off. Gages in the upper Russian River basin in Mendocino County and northern Sonoma County indicate flows are beginning to decline, while gages lower in the watershed, like Johnson's Beach, are continuing to rise and are expected to exceed flood stage. There have been reports of main stem river flooding along the Russian in Cloverdale, Geyserville, at the confluence with Mark West Creek and the Laguna de Santa Rosa, and Healdsburg is experiencing severe flooding from Foss Creek near where it joins the Russian River. The Russian River near Healdsburg is expected to approach, but not exceed, Monitor Stage.

Continued showers and brief periods of heavy precipitation will continue for much of the day, which may continue to have localized impacts such as urban flooding in built up areas and slides and debris flows in steeper terrain. For these reasons we have allowed the regional Flash Flood Warnings to remain in critical areas where needed, while most areas will be covered by Urban and Small Stream Advisories to account for problematic ponding of water.

CAC055-112108-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-141212T1324Z/
/SHEC1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1238 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
THE NAPA RIVER NR ST HELENA
* AT 11AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.3 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET
* AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH
INCLUDING THE LOWEST AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG THE REACH. MANY RURAL
AREAS INCLUDING SOME PRIMARY ROADS AND MANY SECONDARY ROADS WILL
HAVE MINOR FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3860 12265 3865 12262 3849 12239 3843 12244
3852 12253 3860 12265

CAC097-122038-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0002.141212T1124Z-141213T1612Z/
/GUEC1.1.ER.141212T1124Z.141212T1800Z.141213T0412Z.NO/
1238 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE
* FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 12PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.9 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 33.9 FEET BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.THE
RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
* AT 34.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE FLOODING BEGINS AT JOHNSONS RESORT,
PARKERS RESORT, CREEKSIDE RESORT AND RIVERSIDE PARK. IN NORTHWOOD
LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 33.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 116 AND DRAKE
RD IS CLOSED. IN MONTE RIO WILLOW AND ALDER STREETS FLOOD. IN
FORESTVILLE MIRABEL TRAILER PARK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
RD IS CLOSED. MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
* AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING. LOWER MILL STREET IN
GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO
FLOOD.
* AT 29.0 FEET...MONITOR STAGE.

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
3847 12298 3841 12310

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.
$$

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

507 
WGUS86 KMTR 120403
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
803 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CALIFORNIA...

  RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE


The latest revision to the stage forecast for the Russian River
near Guerneville (Johnsons Beach) indicates flooding remains likely
for Saturday morning.  As upper Russian River gages indicate waning 
flows with the passage of the flood wave...gages lower in the watershed
continue to rise as the flood wave propagates downstream.  Currently...
the flood wave is passing through the Alexander Valley and has not
quite reached Healdsburg.  Flooding is not expected on the main stem
in Healdsburg, but lingering effects of flooding from Foss Creek likely
remain in the City of Healdsburg.  At this point...flooding from the 
main stem of the Russian River is only forecast for Guerneville within 
Sonoma County.




CAC097-130403-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0002.141212T1030Z-141213T1900Z/
/GUEC1.1.ER.141212T1030Z.141212T1900Z.141213T0700Z.NO/
803 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE
* FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 07PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.2 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 34.7 FEET BY NEAR TOMORROW NOON.THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY NEAR TOMORROW MIDNIGHT.
* AT 35.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER 
  RUSSIAN RIVER. NUMEROUS BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES IN THE LOWEST 
  SECTIONS OF TOWNS WITHIN THE REACH ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD. IN 
  GUERNEVILLE BROOKSIDE RESORT BEGINS TO FLOOD. MORE EXTENSIVE 
  FLOODING OCCURS AT PARKERS RESORT. IN NORTHWOOD LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE
  FLOODS.
* AT 34.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE FLOODING BEGINS AT JOHNSONS RESORT, 
  PARKERS RESORT, CREEKSIDE RESORT AND RIVERSIDE PARK. IN NORTHWOOD 
  LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 33.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 116 AND DRAKE
  RD IS CLOSED. IN MONTE RIO WILLOW AND ALDER STREETS FLOOD. IN 
  FORESTVILLE MIRABEL TRAILER PARK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
  RD IS CLOSED. MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
* AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING. LOWER MILL STREET IN 
  GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO 
  FLOOD.
* AT 29.0 FEET...MONITOR STAGE.


&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID 
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.
$$







THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM LOCAL TIME OR 
SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

230 
WGUS86 KMTR 120406
FLSMTR

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
806 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CALIFORNIA...

  RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE


THE LATEST REVISION TO THE STAGE FORECAST FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER
NEAR GUERNEVILLE (JOHNSONS BEACH) INDICATES FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING.  AS UPPER RUSSIAN RIVER GAGES INDICATE WANING 
FLOWS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FLOOD WAVE...GAGES LOWER IN THE 
WATERSHED CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE FLOOD WAVE PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM.  
CURRENTLY...THE FLOOD WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE ALEXANDER VALLEY 
AND HAS NOT QUITE REACHED HEALDSBURG.  FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON 
THE MAIN STEM IN HEALDSBURG, BUT LINGERING EFFECTS OF FLOODING FROM 
FOSS CREEK LIKELY REMAIN IN THE CITY OF HEALDSBURG.  AT THIS 
POINT...FLOODING FROM THE MAIN STEM OF THE RUSSIAN RIVER IS ONLY 
FORECAST FOR GUERNEVILLE WITHIN SONOMA COUNTY.




CAC097-130403-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0002.141212T1030Z-141213T1900Z/
/GUEC1.1.ER.141212T1030Z.141212T1900Z.141213T0700Z.NO/
806 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE
* FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 07PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.2 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 34.7 FEET BY NEAR TOMORROW NOON.THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY NEAR TOMORROW MIDNIGHT.
* AT 35.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER 
  RUSSIAN RIVER. NUMEROUS BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES IN THE LOWEST 
  SECTIONS OF TOWNS WITHIN THE REACH ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD. IN 
  GUERNEVILLE BROOKSIDE RESORT BEGINS TO FLOOD. MORE EXTENSIVE 
  FLOODING OCCURS AT PARKERS RESORT. IN NORTHWOOD LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE
  FLOODS.
* AT 34.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE FLOODING BEGINS AT JOHNSONS RESORT, 
  PARKERS RESORT, CREEKSIDE RESORT AND RIVERSIDE PARK. IN NORTHWOOD 
  LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 33.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 116 AND DRAKE
  RD IS CLOSED. IN MONTE RIO WILLOW AND ALDER STREETS FLOOD. IN 
  FORESTVILLE MIRABEL TRAILER PARK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
  RD IS CLOSED. MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
* AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING. LOWER MILL STREET IN 
  GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO 
  FLOOD.
* AT 29.0 FEET...MONITOR STAGE.


&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID 
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.
$$







THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM LOCAL TIME OR 
SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

843 
WGUS86 KMTR 120433
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
833 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CALIFORNIA...

  RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE


THE LATEST REVISION TO THE STAGE FORECAST FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER
NEAR GUERNEVILLE (JOHNSONS BEACH) INDICATES FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY
FOR FRIDAY MORNING.  AS UPPER RUSSIAN RIVER GAGES INDICATE WANING 
FLOWS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FLOOD WAVE...GAGES LOWER IN THE 
WATERSHED CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE FLOOD WAVE PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM.  
CURRENTLY...THE FLOOD WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE ALEXANDER VALLEY 
AND HAS NOT QUITE REACHED HEALDSBURG.  FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON 
THE MAIN STEM IN HEALDSBURG, BUT LINGERING EFFECTS OF FLOODING FROM 
FOSS CREEK LIKELY REMAIN IN THE CITY OF HEALDSBURG.  AT THIS 
POINT...FLOODING FROM THE MAIN STEM OF THE RUSSIAN RIVER IS ONLY 
FORECAST FOR GUERNEVILLE WITHIN SONOMA COUNTY.




CAC097-130433-
/O.COR.KMTR.FL.W.0002.141212T1030Z-141213T1900Z/
/GUEC1.1.ER.141212T1030Z.141212T1900Z.141213T0700Z.NO/
833 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

* AT 08PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.8 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 34.7 FEET BY NEAR TOMORROW NOON.THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY NEAR TOMORROW MIDNIGHT.
* AT 35.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER 
  RUSSIAN RIVER. NUMEROUS BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES IN THE LOWEST 
  SECTIONS OF TOWNS WITHIN THE REACH ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD. IN 
  GUERNEVILLE BROOKSIDE RESORT BEGINS TO FLOOD. MORE EXTENSIVE 
  FLOODING OCCURS AT PARKERS RESORT. IN NORTHWOOD LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE
  FLOODS.
* AT 34.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE FLOODING BEGINS AT JOHNSONS RESORT, 
  PARKERS RESORT, CREEKSIDE RESORT AND RIVERSIDE PARK. IN NORTHWOOD 
  LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 33.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 116 AND DRAKE
  RD IS CLOSED. IN MONTE RIO WILLOW AND ALDER STREETS FLOOD. IN 
  FORESTVILLE MIRABEL TRAILER PARK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
  RD IS CLOSED. MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
* AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING. LOWER MILL STREET IN 
  GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO 
  FLOOD.
* AT 29.0 FEET...MONITOR STAGE.


&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID 
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.


THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM LOCAL TIME OR 
SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

720 
WGUS86 KMTR 121110
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
310 AM PST FRI DEC 12 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CALIFORNIA...

  RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE

.THE LATEST REVISION TO THE STAGE FORECAST FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER
NEAR GUERNEVILLE (JOHNSONS BEACH) INDICATES FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AS UPPER RUSSIAN RIVER GAGES
INDICATE WANING FLOWS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FLOOD WAVE...GAGES LOWER 
IN THE WATERSHED CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE FLOOD WAVE PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM.
CURRENTLY...THE FLOOD WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE ALEXANDER VALLEY 
AND HAS NOT QUITE REACHED HEALDSBURG.  FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON 
THE MAIN STEM IN HEALDSBURG, BUT LINGERING EFFECTS OF FLOODING FROM 
FOSS CREEK LIKELY REMAIN IN THE CITY OF HEALDSBURG.  AT THIS 
POINT...FLOODING FROM THE MAIN STEM OF THE RUSSIAN RIVER IS ONLY 
FORECAST FOR GUERNEVILLE WITHIN SONOMA COUNTY.

CAC097-131110-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-141213T2036Z/
/GUEC1.2.ER.141212T1152Z.141212T2100Z.141213T0836Z.NO/
310 AM PST FRI DEC 12 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NEAR GUERNEVILLE

* FROM EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 2 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.4 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 35.5 FEET BY NEAR THIS NOON.THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY .
* AT 36.0 FEET...IN FORESTVILLE MIRABEL PARK RESORT AND MIRABEL 
  TRAILER PARK FLOOD. IN GUERNEVILLE FERN ROAD AT HWY 116 FLOODS.
* AT 35.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER 
  RUSSIAN RIVER. NUMEROUS BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES IN THE LOWEST 
  SECTIONS OF TOWNS WITHIN THE REACH ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD. IN 
  GUERNEVILLE BROOKSIDE RESORT BEGINS TO FLOOD. MORE EXTENSIVE 
  FLOODING OCCURS AT PARKERS RESORT. IN NORTHWOOD LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE
  FLOODS.
* AT 34.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE FLOODING BEGINS AT JOHNSONS RESORT, 
  PARKERS RESORT, CREEKSIDE RESORT AND RIVERSIDE PARK. IN NORTHWOOD 
  LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 33.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 116 AND DRAKE
  RD IS CLOSED. IN MONTE RIO WILLOW AND ALDER STREETS FLOOD. IN 
  FORESTVILLE MIRABEL TRAILER PARK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
  RD IS CLOSED. MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
* AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING. LOWER MILL STREET IN 
  GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO 
  FLOOD.
* AT 29.0 FEET...MONITOR STAGE.


&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID 
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.
$$


THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 10 AM LOCAL TIME OR SOONER AS 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

560 
WGUS86 KMTR 121129
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
329 AM PST FRI DEC 12 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CALIFORNIA...

  AT RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE


.THE LATEST REVISION TO THE STAGE FORECAST FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER
NEAR GUERNEVILLE (JOHNSONS BEACH) INDICATES FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AS UPPER RUSSIAN RIVER GAGES
INDICATE WANING FLOWS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FLOOD WAVE...GAGES LOWER 
IN THE WATERSHED CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE FLOOD WAVE PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM.
CURRENTLY...THE FLOOD WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE ALEXANDER VALLEY 
AND HAS NOT QUITE REACHED HEALDSBURG.  FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON 
THE MAIN STEM IN HEALDSBURG, BUT LINGERING EFFECTS OF FLOODING FROM 
FOSS CREEK LIKELY REMAIN IN THE CITY OF HEALDSBURG.  AT THIS 
POINT...FLOODING FROM THE MAIN STEM OF THE RUSSIAN RIVER IS ONLY 
FORECAST FOR GUERNEVILLE WITHIN SONOMA COUNTY.

CAC097-131129-
/O.COR.KMTR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-141213T2036Z/
/GUEC1.2.ER.141212T1154Z.141212T2100Z.141213T0836Z.NO/
329 AM PST FRI DEC 12 2014

* AT 3 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.9 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY 4 AM THIS MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 35.5 FEET BY NOON OR 1 PM.THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY.
* AT 36.0 FEET...IN FORESTVILLE MIRABEL PARK RESORT AND MIRABEL 
  TRAILER PARK FLOOD. IN GUERNEVILLE FERN ROAD AT HWY 116 FLOODS.
* AT 35.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER 
  RUSSIAN RIVER. NUMEROUS BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES IN THE LOWEST 
  SECTIONS OF TOWNS WITHIN THE REACH ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD. IN 
  GUERNEVILLE BROOKSIDE RESORT BEGINS TO FLOOD. MORE EXTENSIVE 
  FLOODING OCCURS AT PARKERS RESORT. IN NORTHWOOD LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE
  FLOODS.
* AT 34.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE FLOODING BEGINS AT JOHNSONS RESORT, 
  PARKERS RESORT, CREEKSIDE RESORT AND RIVERSIDE PARK. IN NORTHWOOD 
  LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 33.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 116 AND DRAKE
  RD IS CLOSED. IN MONTE RIO WILLOW AND ALDER STREETS FLOOD. IN 
  FORESTVILLE MIRABEL TRAILER PARK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
  RD IS CLOSED. MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
* AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING. LOWER MILL STREET IN 
  GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO 
  FLOOD.
* AT 29.0 FEET...MONITOR STAGE.


&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID 
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 10 AM FRIDAY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

894 
WGUS86 KMTR 121714
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
914 AM PST FRI DEC 12 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CALIFORNIA...

  RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE


.THE LATEST REVISION TO THE STAGE FORECAST FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER
NEAR GUERNEVILLE (JOHNSONS BEACH) INDICATES FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY
FOR MIDDAY TODAY.  THE MOST RECENT FORECAST INDICATES THE PEAK STAGE
WILL REACH 33.3 FEET...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATED 
FORECAST FOR PEAK STAGE AT JOHNSONS BEACH. CURRENT ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THE RUSSIAN RIVER NR GUERNEVILLE MAY FALL BACK DOWN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
BY APPROXIMATELY 8:00 PM LOCAL TIME.




CAC097-131536-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-141213T1536Z/
/GUEC1.1.ER.141212T1307Z.141212T1900Z.141213T0336Z.NO/
914 AM PST FRI DEC 12 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT JOHNSONS BEACH NR GUERNEVILLE
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 08AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.9 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 33.3 FEET BY MIDDAY.
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 34.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE FLOODING BEGINS AT JOHNSONS RESORT, 
  PARKERS RESORT, CREEKSIDE RESORT AND RIVERSIDE PARK. IN NORTHWOOD 
  LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 33.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 116 AND DRAKE
  RD IS CLOSED. IN MONTE RIO WILLOW AND ALDER STREETS FLOOD. IN 
  FORESTVILLE MIRABEL TRAILER PARK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
  RD IS CLOSED. MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
* AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING. LOWER MILL STREET IN 
  GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO 
  FLOOD.
* AT 29.0 FEET...MONITOR STAGE.


&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID 
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.
$$


THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY (...ENTER DATE AND TIME...) OR 
SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

450 
WGUS86 KMTR 131214
FLSMTR

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
414 AM PST SAT DEC 13 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CALIFORNIA...

RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNVILLE AFFECTING SONOMA COUNTY

.RAIN HAS ENDED AND THE RIVER HAS CRESTED. THE LATEST OBSERVATION
WAS 29.5 FEET WHICH IS BELOW THE 32 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. WATER LEVELS 
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

CAC097-141158-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-141213T1200Z/
/GUEC1.1.ER.141212T1307Z.141212T1900Z.141213T1215Z.NO/
414 AM PST SAT DEC 13 2014

* AT 3 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.5 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL TO NEAR 28.2 FEET EARLY THIS MORNIN

&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID 
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 11, 4:53 AM PST, 4 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 11, 4:53 AM PST, 4 hours 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
453 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...STRONG FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAY AREA TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING WILL WORK ITS
WAY THROUGH THE BAY AREA THROUGH MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE MONTEREY BAY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THEN SHIFT WEST BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:23 AM PST THURSDAY...WILL TRY AND BE CONCISE
AND FOCUS ON HEADLINES. THE FRONT HAS STALLED MOST OF THE NIGHT IN
THE NORTH BAY WITH ONLY 0.01 SO FAR IN THE CITY WHILE THE VENADO
GAGE ON THE SONOMA COAST IS NOW UP TO 4.12 INCHES. OTHER NOTABLE
RAIN TOTALS SO FAR INCLUDE 3.41 AT HAWKEYE (NORTHERN SONOMA) AND 2.48 AT
ANGWIN (NORTHERN NAPA). THE 06Z NAM CAME IN LAST NIGHT AND SHOWED
THE BULLS-EYE OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN SONOMA AND SOUTHERN MENDOCINO
AND THAT SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING RIGHT NOW. THOSE IN THE BAY AREA
THAT ARE AWAITING MORNING RAINFALL JUST NEED TO BE PATIENT...THE
FRONT IS ON ITS WAY. HAVE ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE 3 NORTH BAY COUNTIES FOR THIS MORNING TO COVER
THE COPIOUS RAINFALL THAT IS FALLING UP THERE. OTHER MAIN CONCERN
IS THE REACTION OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE RUSSIAN AND
NAPA. WE RECEIVED NEW DATA AROUND 3 AM FROM THE RFC THAT SHOWS
SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE RISES. THE NAPA RIVER AT NAPA COULD REACH
FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
STAY IN PLACE. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HYDROLOGISTS WILL WAIT
UNTIL 9 AM MODEL SIMULATIONS BEFORE ISSUING ANY STATEMENTS ON THE
RUSSIAN OR NAPA. ANY QUICK RISES BY TONIGHT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
RAPID FALLS AS WELL.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS....FINALLY REACHING THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES AND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. HIGH WIND WARNING
WILL STAY IN PLACE AS WELL WITH VERY STRONG SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY EASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED BY THIS EVENING.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL AND THE COASTAL BUOYS
ARE ALREADY REPORTING SEA HEIGHTS TO 16 FEET.

WERE ALSO MONITORING T-STORM POTENTIAL AND SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR
AREA FOR A MARGINAL THREAT. MAIN CONCERN IS ACTUALLY OVER THE
OCEAN WHERE THE WARM SSTS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THINGS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SOME OF THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES.

STEADY RAIN WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SATURDAY LOOKS
REAL NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING.

NEXT FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING SO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD. THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RAIN LOOKS LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH TOTALS FROM 0.25-0.75 FOR THE GREATER BAY AREA. A
NICE WINTER SOAKING. SHOWER THREAT TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER WEAK TO MODERATE STORM TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.&&

AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PST THURSDAY... A POWERFUL PACIFIC CYCLONE
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. EXPECT NUMEROUS AIRLINE
DELAYS/CANCELLATIONS THROUGH TODAY POSSIBLY CASCADING INTO THE
EVENING. DUE TO THE HIGHLY ENERGETIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND PRIMARILY PACKED
ALONG THE STEEP BOUNDARY. SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KTS WITH A MAJORITY OF
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS IN FAVORED TOPOGRAPHY... ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER RIDGES...COULD EXCEED 60 KTS. CIGS WILL
INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
DETERIORATE TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR IN FRONTAL/POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WET RUNWAYS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PUSH MANY
AIRCRAFT OUT OF TOLERANCE FOR LANDING. RAIN WILL BE INITIALLY BE
MODERATE BUT BECOME HEAVY CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AND WEAKEN HOWEVER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BECOME THE PRIME FOCUS AND
SOME TS BECOME SEVERE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE VICINITY
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
S-SE WINDS VALID THROUGH 4 PM PST TODAY. GUSTS POTENTIAL UP TO
45 KNOTS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW GUSTS GET CLOSER TO
60 KNOTS NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...ADVERSE WEATHER SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GUSTY BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CIGS DETERIORATE TO MVFR BTWN 14-15Z
THU AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. WIND AND RAIN GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
MIDDAY.

&&

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:26 AM PST THURSDAY...ONE OF THE STRONGEST
PACIFIC CYCLONES IN YEARS HAS ENTERED THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING UNFAVORABLE MARITIME CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH DANGEROUS SURF... LARGE
SWELL... THUNDERSTORMS... AND GALE FORCE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
STORM FORCE GUSTS. GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST WITHIN A FEW HOUR SPAN
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY. MARINERS VENTURING ON OPEN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND CHECK THE LATEST CONDITIONS
BEFORE DEPARTING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS THE STORM
EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...HIGH WIND WARNING...ENTIRE SF AND MONTEREY BAY REGION
             FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ENTIRE SF AND MONTEREY BAY REGION
             HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COASTLINE FROM SONOMA TO BIG SUR
             GLW...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SRW...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DRP

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 11, 5:42 AM PST, 3 hours 42 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
542 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-120100-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
542 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
MONTEREY BAY AREA.

.DAY ONE...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT

A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION *

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST *

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARDS...PLEASE VISIT
  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MONTEREY/HAZARDS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 11, 8:45 AM PST, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
845 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSE BERKELEY          37.82N 122.27W
12/11/2014                   ALAMEDA            CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WB 580 TO EB 24 18 INCHES OF WATER ON ROAD.

&&

MMEHLE

Local storm report, Dec 11, 8:48 AM PST, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
848 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MONTEREY                36.60N 121.88W
12/11/2014                   MONTEREY           CA   OTHER FEDERAL

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON PRESIDIO OF MONTEREY GROUNDS

&&

JOHNSON

Local storm report, Dec 11, 8:50 AM PST, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
850 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST LOS GATOS RAWS          37.20N 121.95W
12/11/2014  M64 MPH          SANTA CLARA        CA   MESONET

            MEASURED AT ELEVATION 1842 FEET IN THE SANTA CRUZ
            MOUNTAINS

&&

JOHNSON

Local storm report, Dec 11, 8:52 AM PST, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
852 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W MILLBRAE            37.59N 122.50W
12/11/2014                   SAN MATEO          CA   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERING ROADWAY AND PARKING LOTS

&&

MMEHLE

Local storm report, Dec 11, 9:04 AM PST, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
904 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DEL MONTE FOREST        36.59N 121.95W
12/11/2014                   MONTEREY           CA   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN PEBBLE BEACH

&&

JOHNSON

Local storm report, Dec 11, 9:15 AM PST, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
915 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW BURLINGAME        37.56N 122.44W
12/11/2014  M59 MPH          SAN MATEO          CA   MESONET

            MEASURED NEAR SPRING VALLEY AT ELEVATION 1000 FEET.

&&

JOHNSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 11, 3:31 AM PST	Areal Flood Advisory	MTR	Marin, Napa, Sonoma	8 hr
Dec 11, 6:50 AM PST	Areal Flood Advisory	MTR	Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, City and County of San Francisco, San Mateo	3 hr
Dec 11, 7:15 AM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	Marin, Sonoma	3 hr
Dec 11, 7:48 AM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	Napa, Sonoma	3 hr
Dec 11, 8:00 AM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	City and County of San Francisco, San Mateo	90 min
Dec 11, 8:16 AM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz	3 hr
Dec 11, 8:45 AM PST	Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas	MTR		31 hr
Dec 11, 9:00 AM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	Napa, Sonoma	7 hr
Dec 11, 9:22 AM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz	3 hr
Dec 11, 9:24 AM PST	River Flood Warning	MTR	Napa	20 hr
Dec 11, 10:15 AM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	Marin, Napa, Sonoma	90 min
Dec 11, 10:41 AM PST	Coastal Flood Warning	MTR	Alameda, Contra Costa, City and County of San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara	8 hr
Dec 11, 10:42 AM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	Monterey, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz	3 hr
Dec 11, 10:43 AM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	Napa, Sonoma	92 min
Dec 11, 11:22 AM PST	Areal Flood Advisory	MTR	Alameda, Contra Costa, City and County of San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz	3 hr
Dec 11, 11:46 AM PST	Areal Flood Advisory	MTR	Monterey	3 hr
Dec 11, 12:00 PM PST	Areal Flood Advisory	MTR	Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz	3 hr
Dec 11, 1:52 PM PST	Areal Flood Advisory	MTR	Marin, Napa, Sonoma	5 hr
Dec 11, 2:21 PM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz	54 min
Dec 11, 2:23 PM PST	Flash Flood Warning	MTR	Monterey	3 hr
Dec 11, 2:59 PM PST	Areal Flood Advisory	MTR	Alameda, Contra Costa, City and County of San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara	3 hr
Dec 11, 3:11 PM PST	Areal Flood Advisory	MTR	San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz	3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in California, 2014 Every river flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.