Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
958 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

...STRONG FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAY AREA TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING WILL WORK ITS
WAY THROUGH THE BAY AREA THROUGH MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING THE MONTEREY BAY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THEN SHIFT WEST BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:19 AM PST THURSDAY...CURRENTLY WATCHING A
VERY STRONG FRONTAL RAIN BAND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH BAY THAT
PRODUCED WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
WITHIN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SAN JOSE REGION
SHORTLY. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.00" PER HOUR HAVE BEEN
REPORTED WITH THIS BAND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND...REACHING THE MONTEREY BAY AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THE
HEAVY RAIN BAND...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPPER OFF OVER THE
EXTREME PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...MAINLY SONOMA COUNTY SHORTLY.

WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60
AND 70 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...DID GET A PEAK OF 83 MPH ON
MT. HAMILTON. AGAIN...THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OUT HEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONTAL RAIN BAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
SOUTH BAY AND DOWN THE COAST THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS
MORNING...YET HAVE TRIED TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:23 AM PST THURSDAY...WILL TRY AND BE
CONCISE AND FOCUS ON HEADLINES. THE FRONT HAS STALLED MOST OF THE
NIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY WITH ONLY 0.01 SO FAR IN THE CITY WHILE THE
VENADO GAGE ON THE SONOMA COAST IS NOW UP TO 4.12 INCHES. OTHER
NOTABLE RAIN TOTALS SO FAR INCLUDE 3.41 AT HAWKEYE (NORTHERN
SONOMA) AND 2.48 AT ANGWIN (NORTHERN NAPA). THE 06Z NAM CAME IN
LAST NIGHT AND SHOWED THE BULLS-EYE OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN SONOMA
AND SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND THAT SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING RIGHT NOW.
THOSE IN THE BAY AREA THAT ARE AWAITING MORNING RAINFALL JUST NEED
TO BE PATIENT...THE FRONT IS ON ITS WAY. HAVE ISSUED AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE 3 NORTH BAY COUNTIES FOR THIS
MORNING TO COVER THE COPIOUS RAINFALL THAT IS FALLING UP THERE.
OTHER MAIN CONCERN IS THE REACTION OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
INCLUDING THE RUSSIAN AND NAPA. WE RECEIVED NEW DATA AROUND 3 AM
FROM THE RFC THAT SHOWS SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE RISES. THE NAPA RIVER
AT NAPA COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL STAY IN PLACE. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
HYDROLOGISTS WILL WAIT UNTIL 9 AM MODEL SIMULATIONS BEFORE ISSUING
ANY STATEMENTS ON THE RUSSIAN OR NAPA. ANY QUICK RISES BY TONIGHT
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY RAPID FALLS AS WELL.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AREA LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS....FINALLY
REACHING THE MONTEREY BAY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING ISSUES AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
TODAY. HIGH WIND WARNING WILL STAY IN PLACE AS WELL WITH VERY
STRONG SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY EASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING AND THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED BY
THIS EVENING.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL AND THE COASTAL
BUOYS ARE ALREADY REPORTING SEA HEIGHTS TO 16 FEET.

WERE ALSO MONITORING T-STORM POTENTIAL AND SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
OUR AREA FOR A MARGINAL THREAT. MAIN CONCERN IS ACTUALLY OVER THE
OCEAN WHERE THE WARM SSTS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THINGS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SOME OF THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES.

STEADY RAIN WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SATURDAY LOOKS REAL NICE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING.

NEXT FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING SO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD. THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RAIN LOOKS LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH TOTALS FROM 0.25-0.75 FOR THE GREATER BAY AREA. A
NICE WINTER SOAKING. SHOWER THREAT TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER WEAK TO MODERATE STORM TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.&&

AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 AM PST THURSDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE SF
BAY AREA THIS HAS RESULTED IN HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE MONTEREY
BAY AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...POOR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN FALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...ADVERSE WEATHER SIMILAR
TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT
THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:19 AM PST THURSDAY...AN EXTREMELY STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
THIS IS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS AND VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ON SHORE. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE DANGEROUS SEA AND
WIND CONDITIONS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL WATER SPOUTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HIGH WIND WARNING...ENTIRE SF AND MONTEREY BAY REGION
             FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ENTIRE SF AND MONTEREY BAY REGION
             HIGH SURF ADVISORY...COASTLINE FROM SONOMA TO BIG SUR
             GLW...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 4 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 4 PM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SRW...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
542 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-120100-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
542 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
MONTEREY BAY AREA.

.DAY ONE...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT

A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION *

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST *

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARDS...PLEASE VISIT
  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MONTEREY/HAZARDS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1024 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW ROHNERT PARK      38.35N 122.73W
12/11/2014  M4.05 INCH       SONOMA             CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

MMEHLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1037 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 SSW CARMEL-BY-THE-SEA 36.50N 121.94W
12/11/2014                   MONTEREY           CA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PETER PAN ROAD AT HIGHWAY 1 BLOCKED BY A DOWNED TREE.

&&

JOHNSON

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