Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
245 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...An upper level wave brought scattered showers and a few
embedded light thunderstorms from 5 am MDT this morning through
early this afternoon across southern Idaho County northeast to
Granite County. The activity produced several dozen lightning
strikes mainly over mountainous areas. As this wave moves
eastward, scattered thundershower activity will fire up from Ovando
south to Butte this afternoon. Behind it, there is still the
potential for showers to develop but may remain over the terrain.
Another wave that has produced showers and thunderstorms over
northeastern WA and the ID Panhandle will help to induce activity
over northwest Montana this afternoon and evening with main
threats being gusty winds, lightning and locally heavy rain.

The next upper level wave that weather models are keying on
has been tracking across central Oregon and is forecast to track
across central Idaho into western Montana by daybreak Sunday.  A few
of the high-resolution models have been hinting at a few storms
breaking out over eastern OR/WA and moving over the Camas Prairie by
late this afternoon into early evening. If they keep their
strength, there is the possibility for strong wind gusts with these
storms. As the wave moves through the area tonight, there is a
chance for night-time thunderstorms especially across Clearwater and
northeastern Idaho Counties in Idaho and from Mineral to Ravalli
Counties. Main threats would be locally heavy rain, lightning and
gusty winds.

On Sunday there will be a general chance for diurnal thunderstorms
developing with the higher terrain seeing the best chance for
activity. Temperatures will remain above normal for this time of
year.

Monday, a very wet disturbance that can be traced back to the
southwestern us monsoon will graze the northern Rockies.
Uncertainty remains high with the trajectory of the system as some
models recently started trending to a more southeasterly path over
Wyoming. And considerable disagreement among the many weather
models continues to cloud the forecast. But, confidence is growing
that at least Lemhi county, Idaho, and southwestern Montana will
be impacted.

The air mass with this system is extremely moist for the Northern
Rockies, and has tremendous potential for heavy rain. However,
such a moist air mass will cause a lot of cloud cover weakening
the biggest driver of rain this time of year, thunderstorms
powered by strong surface heating under initially clear skies. As
a result, rain is expected to be more wide spread and moderate
with a few embedded thunderstorms. Portions of Lemhi county and
southwestern Montana may receive half an inch to an inch of rain
Monday and Tuesday. The main impact of this could be to set back
fire season in the affected area.

Portions of central western Montana and the rest of central Idaho
will receive less rain, but could still get pretty wet. Northwest
Montana may get a few showers, but will be relatively dry overall.

&&

.AVIATION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are developing across
the region. KGPI and KBTM look to have the best potential for a
passing storm through 03/0300z. A weak weather disturbance may
kick off a few thunderstorms after midnight potentially impacting
all terminals. Slight chances of storms return again Sunday
afternoon which may impact all terminals.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
928 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

MTZ001-003-004-030415-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-LOWER CLARK FORK
REGION-
928 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SANDERS AND WESTERN LAKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM MDT...

AT 924 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARADISE...OR 19 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SUPERIOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CAMAS PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4767 11451 4743 11431 4734 11479 4744 11486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 234DEG 18KT 4746 11470

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
933 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

IDZ005-007-030415-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-
833 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM PDT...

AT 823 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF KENDRICK...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST
OF OROFINO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ELK RIVER...
TEAKEAN...AHSAHKA...RIVERSIDE AND DENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 11646 4664 11645 4664 11634 4683 11634
      4689 11621 4657 11588 4647 11638 4649 11639
      4649 11644 4650 11646 4656 11647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 238DEG 15KT 4663 11649

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1011 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

IDZ009-010-030500-
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
1011 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LEMHI COUNTY UNTIL 1100
PM MDT...

AT 1010 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 93 BETWEEN SALMON AND
ELLIS...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALMON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HIGHWAY 93 BETWEEN
SALMON AND ELLIS AND WILLIAMS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4493 11443 4510 11435 4500 11377 4477 11388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 288DEG 16KT 4498 11426

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1014 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

MTZ001-030500-
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
1014 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FLATHEAD AND CENTRAL
LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM MDT...

AT 1006 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF LIBBY...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TREGO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4872 11487 4848 11475 4833 11561 4863 11557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 263DEG 21KT 4856 11534

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1025 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

MTZ002>004-043-030515-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE
REGION-WEST GLACIER REGION-
1025 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANDERS AND CENTRAL
LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM MDT...

AT 1018 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BIG ARM TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF DIXON...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...POLSON...DIXON...
PABLO...RONAN...SAINT IGNATIUS...MOIESE...ROUND BUTTE...CHARLO...
ALLENTOWN...FORT CONNAH AND KICKING HORSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4770 11398 4728 11399 4734 11455 4769 11458
TIME...MOT...LOC 0424Z 270DEG 13KT 4759 11447 4738 11446

KINO