Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
245 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...An upper level wave brought scattered showers and a few
embedded light thunderstorms from 5 am MDT this morning through
early this afternoon across southern Idaho County northeast to
Granite County. The activity produced several dozen lightning
strikes mainly over mountainous areas. As this wave moves
eastward, scattered thundershower activity will fire up from Ovando
south to Butte this afternoon. Behind it, there is still the
potential for showers to develop but may remain over the terrain.
Another wave that has produced showers and thunderstorms over
northeastern WA and the ID Panhandle will help to induce activity
over northwest Montana this afternoon and evening with main
threats being gusty winds, lightning and locally heavy rain.

The next upper level wave that weather models are keying on
has been tracking across central Oregon and is forecast to track
across central Idaho into western Montana by daybreak Sunday.  A few
of the high-resolution models have been hinting at a few storms
breaking out over eastern OR/WA and moving over the Camas Prairie by
late this afternoon into early evening. If they keep their
strength, there is the possibility for strong wind gusts with these
storms. As the wave moves through the area tonight, there is a
chance for night-time thunderstorms especially across Clearwater and
northeastern Idaho Counties in Idaho and from Mineral to Ravalli
Counties. Main threats would be locally heavy rain, lightning and
gusty winds.

On Sunday there will be a general chance for diurnal thunderstorms
developing with the higher terrain seeing the best chance for
activity. Temperatures will remain above normal for this time of
year.

Monday, a very wet disturbance that can be traced back to the
southwestern us monsoon will graze the northern Rockies.
Uncertainty remains high with the trajectory of the system as some
models recently started trending to a more southeasterly path over
Wyoming. And considerable disagreement among the many weather
models continues to cloud the forecast. But, confidence is growing
that at least Lemhi county, Idaho, and southwestern Montana will
be impacted.

The air mass with this system is extremely moist for the Northern
Rockies, and has tremendous potential for heavy rain. However,
such a moist air mass will cause a lot of cloud cover weakening
the biggest driver of rain this time of year, thunderstorms
powered by strong surface heating under initially clear skies. As
a result, rain is expected to be more wide spread and moderate
with a few embedded thunderstorms. Portions of Lemhi county and
southwestern Montana may receive half an inch to an inch of rain
Monday and Tuesday. The main impact of this could be to set back
fire season in the affected area.

Portions of central western Montana and the rest of central Idaho
will receive less rain, but could still get pretty wet. Northwest
Montana may get a few showers, but will be relatively dry overall.

&&

.AVIATION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are developing across
the region. KGPI and KBTM look to have the best potential for a
passing storm through 03/0300z. A weak weather disturbance may
kick off a few thunderstorms after midnight potentially impacting
all terminals. Slight chances of storms return again Sunday
afternoon which may impact all terminals.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
527 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

IDZ006-008-030015-
LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
427 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM PDT...

AT 418 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RIGGINS...OR 37 MILES NORTH OF MCCALL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RIGGINS HOT SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4562 11616 4547 11597 4533 11635 4543 11647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 234DEG 15KT 4545 11627

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
542 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

IDZ005-007-030130-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-
542 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM PDT...

AT 535 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF OROFINO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...OROFINO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4660 11616 4652 11602 4640 11619 4640 11626
      4644 11633
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 216DEG 17KT 4642 11626

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
854 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

MTZ001-004-030345-
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
854 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SANDERS AND CENTRAL
LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM MDT...

AT 845 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF
MOYIE SPRINGS TO CLARK FORK...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.  THERE HAS BEEN A
HISTORY OF GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO TREE DAMAGE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...LIBBY...TROY...
YAKT...HERON...KOOTENAI FALLS AND YAAK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4885 11523 4805 11525 4804 11606 4885 11606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 268DEG 30KT 4863 11605 4813 11605

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
916 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

MTZ001-003-030400-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
916 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLATHEAD...EASTERN
SANDERS AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM MDT...

AT 912 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF BIG ARM...OR 24 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KALISPELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...LAKE MARY RONAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4813 11431 4792 11416 4781 11469 4793 11477
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 244DEG 20KT 4792 11458

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
928 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

MTZ001-003-004-030415-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-LOWER CLARK FORK
REGION-
928 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SANDERS AND WESTERN LAKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM MDT...

AT 924 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARADISE...OR 19 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SUPERIOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CAMAS PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4767 11451 4743 11431 4734 11479 4744 11486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 234DEG 18KT 4746 11470

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
933 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

IDZ005-007-030415-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-
833 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM PDT...

AT 823 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF KENDRICK...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST
OF OROFINO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ELK RIVER...
TEAKEAN...AHSAHKA...RIVERSIDE AND DENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 11646 4664 11645 4664 11634 4683 11634
      4689 11621 4657 11588 4647 11638 4649 11639
      4649 11644 4650 11646 4656 11647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 238DEG 15KT 4663 11649