Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Morristown, TN

464 
WWUS54 KMRX 042218
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
618 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

TNC067-VAC105-042245-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-140604T2245Z/
HANCOCK TN-LEE VA-
618 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR HANCOCK AND LEE COUNTIES...

AT 616 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HENSLEY STORE...OR 8 MILES 
NORTHWEST OF SNEEDVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SNEEDVILLE...JONESVILLE...PENNINGTON GAP...ST. CHARLES...DRYDEN...
KYLES FORD...EVANSTON...ROSE HILL...PATTONSVILLE AND EWING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING 
FOR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY 
LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF 
SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR 
ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3675 8283 3671 8286 3667 8295 3657 8300
      3646 8326 3652 8339 3660 8347 3666 8344
      3667 8342 3671 8330 3674 8313 3682 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 288DEG 23KT 3665 8330 

$$

TD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TN
RIVER VALLEY. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FLOW (AROUND 40
TO 45 KT)...EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. RIGHT NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AROUND 00Z (8 PM EDT)...AND THEN THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER SUNSET.

MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER MCS
POSSIBLY FORMING AROUND THE OZARKS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE SOUTHERN TN BORDER...THINK THAT IT WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA SINCE
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
THUS...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM NUMBERS SINCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE THE NECESSARY AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME AS THE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER
EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. TRIMMED A COUPLE DEGREES OFF SUGGESTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  88  67  88 /  50  50  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  86  65  86 /  70  50  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  86  65  86 /  70  50  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  83  60  83 /  70  50  20  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DMG/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-051000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-
JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-
UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-
NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-
RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

DMG