Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
229 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER UNORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
NORTH AT JUST OVER 10 MPH. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY BUT VERY WEAK
WINDS ALOFT. OPTED TO LOWER POPS IN EXTREME NE TN AND SW VA TO
SOLID CHANCE WITH SCATTERED WORDING FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
INCREASE WINDS ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO NUDGE THE COLD FRONT
CLOSER TO OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND A BIT STRONGER TSRA FOR TOMORROW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED...KEEPING LIKELY POPS
FOR WRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING LOWS...WHILE
MAX TEMPS SHOULD COOL AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST AREAS GIVEN
THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
POPS WILL BE INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
TROPICS WILL PROVIDE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE JET ENTRANCE REGION AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
OVER THE AREA FOR A GOOD 12-18 HOUR PERIOD. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TWO INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS...MOST LIKELY IN SW NC. THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
MONITORED. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS AGREED UPON BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...EXITING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD FRIDAY...AND A CUT OFF LOW
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES PASSING BY IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS ABLILTY TO PREDICT THESE DETAILED FEATURES
IS LOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY/TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  80  61  66 /  30  70 100  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  64  82  62  66 /  30  50 100  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  81  63  65 /  30  60 100  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  84  60  66 /  50  40  80 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG/DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-141930-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO OCCUR...AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTH
AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
A WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
MORE STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NECESSARY FOR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OR
FLOODING LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             N TELLICO PLAINS        35.37N 84.30W
05/13/2014  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             TN   PUBLIC

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
406 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TNZ016-038-039-132100-
HAWKINS TN-HAMBLEN TN-GRAINGER TN-
406 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HAMBLEN...HAWKINS...AND
GRAINGER COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM...

AT 405 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MORRISTOWN...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS... SMALL
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE INSIDE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS OR ANYTHING
METALLIC. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY...SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 8304 3620 8312 3619 8315 3618 8319
      3614 8318 3617 8337 3641 8337 3642 8336
      3639 8330 3642 8320
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 189DEG 8KT 3623 8325

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TNZ013-035-036-067>069-132115-
CAMPBELL TN-ROANE TN-KNOX TN-MORGAN TN-LOUDON TN-ANDERSON TN-
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LOUDON...WESTERN KNOX...
EASTERN ROANE...AND ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM...

AT 412 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LENOIR CITY...WHICH WAS MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS... SMALL
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE INSIDE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS OR ANYTHING
METALLIC. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY...SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 8436 3619 8435 3619 8397 3585 8408
      3583 8413 3585 8414 3580 8414 3579 8415
      3580 8417 3577 8418 3576 8416 3574 8417
      3570 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 189DEG 16KT 3581 8424

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
433 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TNZ015-VAZ001-132100-
HANCOCK-LEE-
433 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HANCOCK...LEE...

AT 432 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SNEEDVILLE...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SNEEDVILLE...TREADWAY...EVANSTON AND EWING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3666 8310 3649 8315 3646 8317 3644 8321
      3641 8322 3643 8337 3647 8337 3654 8341
      3667 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 182DEG 8KT 3651 8328

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
454 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TNZ017-018-046-VAZ006-008-132130-
JOHNSON-SULLIVAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
454 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT JOHNSON...SULLIVAN...
NORTHWEST CARTER...RUSSELL...WASHINGTON...

AT 454 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRISTOL VA TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNTAIN
CITY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRISTOL TN...BRISTOL VA...ABINGDON...GLADE SPRING...DAMASCUS...
BENHAMS...SHADY VALLEY...SOUTH HOLSTON DAM...HILANDER PARK...HARR AND
EMORY-MEADOW VIEW.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3651 8179 3650 8221 3677 8224 3679 8170
      3675 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 202DEG 10KT 3656 8210 3656 8186

MJB

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