Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
229 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER UNORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
NORTH AT JUST OVER 10 MPH. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY BUT VERY WEAK
WINDS ALOFT. OPTED TO LOWER POPS IN EXTREME NE TN AND SW VA TO
SOLID CHANCE WITH SCATTERED WORDING FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
INCREASE WINDS ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO NUDGE THE COLD FRONT
CLOSER TO OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWERS AND A BIT STRONGER TSRA FOR TOMORROW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED...KEEPING LIKELY POPS
FOR WRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING LOWS...WHILE
MAX TEMPS SHOULD COOL AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST AREAS GIVEN
THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
POPS WILL BE INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
TROPICS WILL PROVIDE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE JET ENTRANCE REGION AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
OVER THE AREA FOR A GOOD 12-18 HOUR PERIOD. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TWO INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS...MOST LIKELY IN SW NC. THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
MONITORED. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS AGREED UPON BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS...EXITING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD FRIDAY...AND A CUT OFF LOW
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES PASSING BY IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS ABLILTY TO PREDICT THESE DETAILED FEATURES
IS LOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY/TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  80  61  66 /  30  70 100  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  64  82  62  66 /  30  50 100  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  81  63  65 /  30  60 100  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  84  60  66 /  50  40  80 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG/DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-141930-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO OCCUR...AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTH
AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
A WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
MORE STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NECESSARY FOR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS OR
FLOODING LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
218 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TNZ042-043-131900-
SOUTHEAST GREENE TN-NORTHWEST GREENE TN-
218 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...
GREENE...SOUTHWESTERN HAWKINS AND NORTHERN COCKE COUNTIES UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

AT 217 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF PARROTTSVILLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GREENEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENEVILLE...TUSCULUM...MOSHEIM...CANEY BRANCH...CEDAR CREEK...CAMP
CREEK AND MOHAWK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8260 3607 8264 3600 8278 3597 8277
      3595 8285 3595 8290 3601 8296 3615 8315
      3625 8307 3629 8299 3619 8265 3615 8265
      3611 8261 3608 8266 3610 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 197DEG 10KT 3606 8296

TG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TNZ038-069-070-073-132030-
KNOX TN-JEFFERSON TN-NORTH SEVIER TN-GRAINGER TN-
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN JEFFERSON...EAST CENTRAL
KNOX...NORTHWESTERN GRAINGER AND NORTHWESTERN SEVIER COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 338 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF SEVIERVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KNOXVILLE...SEVIERVILLE...JEFFERSON CITY...DANDRIDGE...RUTLEDGE...NEW
MARKET...STRAWBERRY PLAINS...BLAINE...KODAK...BUFFALO SPRINGS...
JOPPA...MCMAHAN...KIMBERLIN HEIGHTS...PIEDMONT AND MASCOT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 8336 3622 8345 3613 8349 3611 8340
      3586 8360 3595 8380 3634 8363 3636 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 204DEG 22KT 3600 8365

TG