Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON IS ON THE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS TRACKING SE OUT OF
ERN KY. SEEING SOME ROTATIONS AT TIMES...AND THESE STORMS MAY MOVE
NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. THE BOUNDARY MAY JUST
BE DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SINCE REMNANTS OF LATE NIGHT
STORMS KEPT CLOUDS OVER SW VA AND EXTREME NE TN TODAY.

RAP MODEL AND HRR DATA GENERALLY AGREE WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS IN
THIS CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING. KEPT AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION GOING BEYOND MIDNIGHT SINCE THE COLD
FRONT HAS TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS EARLY MONDAY...SO COOLER TEMPS ARE ON THE
WAY. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT DOES HINT AT SOME PASSING WEAK
CONVECTION AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN A FEW AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WAS PRETTY MUCH ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO I KEPT FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPS...GFS MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR MOST PERIODS...OR A BLEND WITH
NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ENJOY A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. MOISTURE
WILL VERY SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS.
SHORT WAVE FEATURES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH ENHANCING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
WITH THUNDER MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SUFFICIENTLY
WARM SURFACE THROUGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERLAIN BY CHILLY UPPER
LEVEL AIR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PERHAPS BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN PROBABILITY BY SUNDAY AS THE OFFENDING TROUGH WEAKENS A BIT.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER BUT STILL HAD TO
UNDERCUT BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE COOL PATTERN IN STORE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  85  64  83 /  40  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  82  61  80 /  60  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  82  60  80 /  60  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  79  57  77 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-281000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-
JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-
UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-
NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-
RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELD...
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY...TRIGGERING
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DMG