Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

COMPLICATED FCST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE WAKE LEFT
BEHIND CONVECTION WHICH HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER TDA AND ON THRU THIS
AFTN. AS AN UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TNGT THRU TMRW...IT WILL SHOVE A
LOW PRES CENTER AHEAD OF IT ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND THRU NRN MN. THE
WMFNT OF THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY THRU SWRN MN AS TEMPS HAVE HIT
THE LWR 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR 70S...WHILE THE REST OF THE
WFO MPX CWFA LANGUISHES WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR-MID 60S. WINDS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY SE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...HELPING FEED THE CONVERGENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THE WMFNT. THE STRONG FEED OF MOISTURE HAS HELPED
AID EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION GENERATION TDA...WITH SOME REPORTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES TDA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME
CLEARING OUT IN SWRN MN...WHICH THE THINKING IS THAT IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR TO RELOAD THE ATMOS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AT WHICH TIME ANY CAPPING
SHOULD BE BROKEN...THEN ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THEN SHIFT EWD. MULTIPLE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE THAT OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
CONTAINS THE HIGHEST HELICITIES...GREATEST INSTABILITY...AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO HINT THAT WEAK MIDLVL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT
IN WV IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SEVERAL SFC OUTFLOWS WILL COMBINE TO
RESTART CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEST TIMING HAS ACTIVITY STARTING
IN W-CENTRAL MN THEN DRIVING ESE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EVENING HRS. ONCE CONVECTION ENDS...THEN SLY WINDS BRINGING IN
WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOW STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE WARM
SECTOR PORTION OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM. GOING INTO THU...THE CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACRS MN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME ISOLD- SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST OF SAID STORMS TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING. OVERALL TIMING
WITH LACK OF INSOLATION SHOULD LIMIT STORM STRENGTH BUT DEPENDING
ON WHERE ANY LOW LEVEL JETTING CAN BE ESTABLISHED WOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE CDFNT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO
W...DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF AND SKIES WILL STEADILY CLEAR
OUT...HELPING END THE PRECIPITATION FROM W TO E.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE RISING THRU LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WMFNT. WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HIT THEIR HIGHS THIS AFTN...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL NOT
DROP OFF MUCH TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL
RISING...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SETTLE OUT IN THE UPR 60S TO
LWR 70S. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT TMRW...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO MID-UPR
80S IN WRN WI WITH A LARGE RANGE OF MID 70S TO MID 80S IN MN. WITH
THE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S IN WRN WI...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
HIT THE LOW-MID 90S IN FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH THE SAME PROBLEM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD ENDS WITH...WHEN WILL THE STRONG CAP BE BROKEN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY 7 PM THURSDAY /START OF
THE LONG TERM/...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE NEAR A ROCHESTER
TO LADYSMITH LINE...SO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP
THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE NARROW. THE HIRES CAMS...ALONG WITH THE
ECMWF SHOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPING WHEN SAID FRONT IS
EAST OF THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM HAD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ALLOWING FOR IT TO DEVELOP ACTIVITY EAST OF
AN ALBERT LEA TO RICE LAKE LINE. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED SOME
CHANCE POPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z FRIDAY IN THE FAR ERN CWA...THOUGH
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE
MPX AREA. WHEREVER STORMS FORM...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD
SUGGEST WE WILL STILL HAVE A SEVERE THREAT WITH WHATEVER DEVELOPS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE WE GET A GOOD PUSH OF COOL/DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY ONLY TOPPING IN THE 60S AS H85 TEMPS
CRASH FROM ABOUT 20C ON THURSDAY /IN WRN WI/ TO BETWEEN 5C AND 10C
FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS COOLER AIR WILL
WANDER INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH WEST WINDS AND
WEAK WAA SETTING UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
HIGHS BY SUNDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE WILL
SEE FRIDAY.

WE STILL LOOK TO TURN MORE ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS SRN CANADA...WHICH WILL SEND
ANOTHER POWERFUL FALL FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. WAA WILL START OUT IN WRN MN SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS
WHEN POPS START TO APPEAR. WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST SRLY FLOW
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR WAA PRECIP CONTINUING...UNTIL
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PRECIP WORKS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE DAYS DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GET
DRIVEN CLEAR DOWN TO THE GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...WE DO NOT LOOK TO HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO GET GULF MOISTURE
BACK UP TO MN BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS...WITH THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. THROUGH THE WHOLE
PERIOD...STILL HAVE MAINLY CHANCE POPS AS THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD
IN TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIP IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO INSERT
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST TO KEEP THE POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TRULY FALL
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
H85 TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO C IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF ONLY HAS HIGH IN THE 50S WITH
STRONG WNW WINDS...A SIGN THE SEASONS ARE ABOUT TO START CHANGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLICATIONS WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING N TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER TOMORROW. MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY LIFTING N...POTENTIALLY BRINGING IFR
CONDS TO KSTC-KAXN. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER W-CENTRAL MN AND SHIFT ESE ALONG/NEAR THE I-94
CORRIDOR TOWARDS KMSP AND CONTINUE INTO WRN WI. THIS COMPLEX WILL
LIKELY BRING IFR CONDS TO ALL SITES EXCEPT POSSIBLY KRWF WHICH MAY
BE TOO FAR DISPLACED S FROM WHERE THE MAIN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS EVE. BEHIND THE PRECIP...SURGING WARMER AIR AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR-OR-LOWER LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THU AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
S TO W WITH THE CDFNT.

KMSP...CONDS LOOKING FOR THE START OF THE KMSP TAF AND ON THRU THE
REST OF THIS AFTN...BUT TIMING OF NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LOOKS
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY 00Z-06Z. HAVE INDICATED IN THE TEMPO GROUP AS
03Z-06Z TIMING BUT THAT MAY BE ADJUSTED ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS AND
TRENDS ARE ESTABLISHED. AFTER THE PRECIP...WILL LOOK FOR CEILINGS
TO EASILY DROP BELOW 1700 FT...AND LIKELY INTO IFR RANGE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE MRNG PUSH. CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVE
DURG THE DAY...RETURNING TO VFR BY THU AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
123 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
041200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
123 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...SOME
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING
AND SOME RISES ON MAINSTEM RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE THURSDAY IN EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
442 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LITTLE FALLS            45.98N 94.36W
09/03/2014  M2.15 INCH       MORRISON           MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SPD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
448 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             PIERZ                   45.98N 94.10W
09/03/2014  M1.00 INCH       MORRISON           MN   PUBLIC

&&

SPD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             11 S ONAMIA             45.91N 93.67W
09/03/2014  M2.50 INCH       MILLE LACS         MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT HIGHWAY 169 AND 250TH ST

&&

TDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
528 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

MNZ042-043-040130-
MORRISON-TODD-
528 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THE AREA...

AT 528 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS TODD
AND MORRISON COUNTIES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAVE
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON... WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE
THROUGH 7 PM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL TODD AND WESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND EXERCISE APPROPRIATE CAUTION.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. NEVER DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4613 9444 4609 9428 4599 9427 4596 9436
      4593 9455 4594 9497 4604 9498