Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

SURFACE WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY STOUT CAP IS IN
PLACE AS ILLUSTRATED BY H7 TEMPS CIRCA +13C ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER.
CAMS MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS
AFTERNOON. THINKING THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE CU/ACCUS FIELD
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. THEN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ
CRANKS UP AND THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODES. THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THIS EVE...WITH
ACTIVITY THEN EXPANDING TOWARD WEST CENTRAL WI. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...IMPRESSIVE MLCAPE...AND EBS VALUES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE
KITCHEN SINK AS FAR AS WEATHER TYPES ARE CONCERNED. EVENTUAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED AS THE STORMS WORK INTO WI.

ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH BRISK EAST WINDS DEVELOPING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE
EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

WASH... RINSE... REPEAT... PRETTY MUCH LITERALLY WITH ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS
UNTIL WE FINALLY MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE SHOWN... TRYING TO GET MUCH OF
A HANDLE ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RESIDE MORE THAN 12 OR
SO HOURS AHEAD OF TIME IS VERY DIFFICULT. ITS POSITION INFLUENCES
WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD... AND THE CONVECTION IN
TURN INFLUENCES ITS POSITION. SO... WITHOUT A PERFECT MODEL
SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION IT IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
LOCATION AND TIMING TOO PRECISELY... AND WE CERTAINLY WON/T HAVE
ANY PERFECT SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER... AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
UPON WHICH TO HANG OUR HATS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE MASS FIELDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD... SO STUCK CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THEIR
GUIDANCE. THAT APPROACH COULD STILL BE WRONG... BUT IT WOULD BE
TOUGH TO GO WITH SOMETHING ELSE WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.
OVERALL... WE/LL BE LOOKING AT THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD FINALLY... SO
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HITTING THE NORTH/EAST
PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY... WHICH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT... BUT SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LIMITED UNTIL AFTER WE LOSE
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY... SO WOULD MAINLY BE MULTICELL SEVERE
CONCERN OF HAIL AND WIND. BUT... A DECENT SHOT OF INCH OR BETTER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
STORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST NEAR THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH SOME
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LINGERING OVER OUR AREA. PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED WITH HEATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SECONDARY FROPA AND SHORTWAVE ADVERTISED ON
SATURDAY WHICH MIGHT BRING BEST CHANCES THEN. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SUFFICIENTLY BUILD THE SURFACE HIGH AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO SUGGEST PCPN CHANCES WILL MAINLY
SHIFT SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA AT THAT POINT... SO ALLOWED FOR POPS
TO FINALLY EXIT MOST OF THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
FLOODING RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...BUT HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
IOWA BORDER...BUT MAINTAINED VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
AXN AND STC. AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES AND CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASED...AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED TO FINE TUNE TIMING AND
IMPACTS. FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORMS...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
REMAINED MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
INDICATING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WELL.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF MSP...BUT THAT DOES
NOT MEAN THE TERMINAL WILL MISS ALL ACTIVITY. BEYOND 03Z...IT IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN. LOW CHC OF TS AGAIN LATE WED AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS ESE 10-15 KTS.
THU...MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ082>085-
     091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...TRH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
843 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

MNZ082>085-091>093-190145-
WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
843 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES
DEVELOP. RECENT WET CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER
THE SAME LOCATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS. THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL TRANSITION FROM A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO MORE
OF A MAINSTEM RIVER FLOOD THREAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SECTIONS
OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER...AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT SAINT PAUL
...COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY SHOULD WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
OCCUR OVER THE MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MNZ051>070-073>078-WIZ014>016-023>028-190145-
SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-
MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-YELLOW MEDICINE-
RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-
LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-
PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
843 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP. RECENT WET CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE ANY STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS. THE FLOODING
THREAT WILL TRANSITION FROM A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO MORE OF A
MAINSTEM RIVER FLOOD THREAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SECTIONS OF
THE MINNESOTA RIVER...AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT SAINT PAUL
...COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY SHOULD WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
OCCUR OVER THE MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MNZ041>045-047>050-190145-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-
843 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
TRANSITION FROM A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO MORE OF A MAINSTEM RIVER
FLOOD THREAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SECTIONS OF THE MINNESOTA
RIVER...AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT SAINT PAUL ...COULD REACH
FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY SHOULD WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OCCUR OVER THE
MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1054 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

MNZ075-083-084-092-180445-
BLUE EARTH-FARIBAULT-NICOLLET-WASECA-
1054 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

AT 1052 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MINNEOPA STATE PARK TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF MANKATO. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  GOOD THUNDER.
  MINNEOPA STATE PARK.
  SKYLINE.
  ST CLAIR.
  NICOLLET.
  EAGLE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4405 9433 4433 9416 4429 9399 4426 9402
      4424 9402 4424 9380 4424 9377 4420 9377
      4419 9369 4384 9393
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 206DEG 17KT 4407 9418 4397 9398

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1059 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HAIL             ST LOUIS PARK           44.95N 93.36W
06/17/2014  M0.75 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   STORM CHASER

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     HAIL             1 SE GOLDEN VALLEY      44.98N 93.35W
06/17/2014  M1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MOSTLY PEA WITH SOME PENNY SIZE HAIL
            REPORTED.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1104 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             2 SSE ROBBINSDALE       45.00N 93.32W
06/17/2014  E1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     HAIL             1 N GOOD THUNDER        44.02N 94.07W
06/17/2014  M1.00 INCH       BLUE EARTH         MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

AJZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1129 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

WIZ027-028-180515-
CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
1129 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

AT 1128 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF OSSEO. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FOSTER.
  AUGUSTA.
  LAKE EAU CLAIRE COUNTY PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4458 9103 4459 9134 4467 9140 4487 9092
      4487 9091 4462 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 244DEG 21KT 4463 9122

BORGHOFF