Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Twin Cities, MN

092 
WGUS43 KMPX 182029
FLWMPX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

MNC013-015-079-103-161-200000-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140620T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN MN-LE SUEUR MN-NICOLLET MN-WASECA MN-BLUE EARTH MN-
329 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BLUE EARTH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NICOLLET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NORTHERN WASECA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  SOUTHERN LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY

* AT 323 PM CDT...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 
  24 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 
  THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE OR INCREASE FLOODING THROUGH 
  THE WARNED AREA.  

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MANKATO...
  NEW ULM...WASECA...NICOLLET AND LAKE CRYSTAL.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
SPRING CREEK...MINNESOTA RIVER...HUELSKAMP CREEK...LE SUEUR RIVER...
LITTLE ROCK CREEK...SEVENMILE CREEK...SHANASKA CREEK...DOG CREEK...
COUNTY DITCH 59...COTTONWOOD RIVER...GERMAN LAKE AREA...CANON RIVER
TETONKA LAKE...SWAN LAKE OUTLET...WATERVILLE CREEK...MORGAN CREEK...
MINNEOPA CREEK...CRANE CREEK...BLUE EARTH RIVER...COBB RIVER...BULL
RUN CREEK...TRIBUTARY BLUE EARTH RIVER...EIGHTMILE CREEK...MAPLE
RIVER...WATONWAN RIVER...HEYMANS CREEK...LITTLE COBB RIVER...CHERRY
CREEK...HORSESHOE LAKE...CANNON RIVER...CANNON RIVER SAKATAH LAKE...
TRIBUTARY CANNON RIVER...CANNON RIVER TETONKA LAKE...LAKE FRANCIS
AREA...BISH LAKE AREA...SWEDES BAY AREA...LITTLE COTTONWOOD RIVER...
FRITSCHE CREEK...LAKE JEFFERSON AREA AND TRIBUTARY CRANE CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9437 4435 9484 4445 9463 4429 9398
      4430 9361 4406 9340 4404 9341 4394 9415

$$
DWE/CCS

439 
WGUS83 KMPX 191650
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

MNC013-015-079-103-161-200000-
/O.CON.KMPX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140620T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN MN-LE SUEUR MN-NICOLLET MN-WASECA MN-BLUE EARTH MN-
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLUE EARTH...NORTHERN
WASECA...NICOLLET...SOUTHERN LE SUEUR AND NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY...

AT 1150 AM CDT...FLOODING CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA... 
PARTICULARLY ALONG STREAMS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. RAINFALL HAS 
ENDED... BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY 
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... WHICH COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL 
FLOODING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MANKATO...NEW
ULM...WASECA...MINNEOPA STATE PARK AND SLEEPY EYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9437 4435 9484 4445 9463 4429 9398
      4430 9361 4406 9340 4404 9341 4394 9415

$$

835 
WGUS43 KMPX 192214
FLWMPX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
514 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

MNC013-015-079-103-161-210000-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140621T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN MN-LE SUEUR MN-NICOLLET MN-WASECA MN-BLUE EARTH MN-
514 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BLUE EARTH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NICOLLET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NORTHERN WASECA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  SOUTHERN LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT FRIDAY

* AT 511 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING CONTINUING  
  ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SEVERAL ROADS REMAIN FLOODED.  SLOW       
  MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WERE MOVING THROUGH THE   
  THE WARNED AREA. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAIN COULD           
  OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
  SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MANKATO...
  NEW ULM...WASECA...MINNEOPA STATE PARK AND SLEEPY EYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS... OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING
STREAM... EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9437 4435 9484 4445 9463 4429 9398
      4430 9361 4406 9340 4404 9341 4394 9415

$$
DWE

905 
WGUS83 KMPX 200813
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
313 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

MNC013-015-079-103-161-210000-
/O.CON.KMPX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140621T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN MN-LE SUEUR MN-NICOLLET MN-WASECA MN-BLUE EARTH MN-
313 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLUE EARTH...NORTHERN
WASECA...NICOLLET...SOUTHERN LE SUEUR AND NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM CDT FRIDAY...

AT 313 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT 
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN THE WARNED AREA. ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL HAS 
ENDED...RUNOFF IS NOT COMPLETE AND FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.  

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MANKATO...NEW
ULM...WASECA...MINNEOPA STATE PARK AND SLEEPY EYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9437 4435 9484 4445 9463 4429 9398
      4430 9361 4406 9340 4404 9341 4394 9415

$$
JLT

974 
WGUS43 KMPX 201952
FLWMPX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
252 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

MNC013-015-079-103-161-230000-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140623T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN MN-LE SUEUR MN-NICOLLET MN-WASECA MN-BLUE EARTH MN-
252 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BLUE EARTH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NICOLLET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  NORTHERN WASECA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  SOUTHERN LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY

* AT 251 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING ACROSS      
  THE WARNED AREA. SEVERAL ROADS REMAINED FLOODED AND ARE            
  BARRICADED. ALSO...SEVERAL SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD   
  OR ARE RUNNING HIGH.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY 
  NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COULD WORSEN THE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. 

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MANKATO...
  NEW ULM...WASECA...MINNEOPA STATE PARK AND SLEEPY EYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9437 4435 9484 4445 9463 4429 9398
      4430 9361 4406 9340 4404 9341 4394 9415

$$
DWE

338 
WGUS83 KMPX 210920
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
420 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

MNC013-015-079-103-161-230000-
/O.CON.KMPX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140623T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN MN-LE SUEUR MN-NICOLLET MN-WASECA MN-BLUE EARTH MN-
420 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLUE EARTH...NORTHERN
WASECA...NICOLLET...SOUTHERN LE SUEUR AND NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY...

AT 419 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING ACROSS        
THE WARNED AREA. SEVERAL ROADS REMAINED FLOODED AND ARE              
BARRICADED. ALSO...SEVERAL SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD     
OR ARE RUNNING HIGH.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT 
AND SUNDAY AND COULD WORSEN THE FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MANKATO...NEW
ULM...WASECA...MINNEOPA STATE PARK AND SLEEPY EYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9437 4435 9484 4445 9463 4429 9398
      4430 9361 4406 9340 4404 9341 4394 9415

$$

JLT

349 
WGUS83 KMPX 212301
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

MNC013-015-079-103-161-230000-
/O.CON.KMPX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140623T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN MN-LE SUEUR MN-NICOLLET MN-WASECA MN-BLUE EARTH MN-
601 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLUE EARTH...NORTHERN
WASECA...NICOLLET...SOUTHERN LE SUEUR AND NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY...

AT 558 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT FLOODING WAS OCCURRING 
IN THE WARNED AREA. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN FLOODED AND ARE 
BARRICADED. ALSO...NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS AND OTHER AREAS 
ARE FLOODED. CURRENTS ARE SWIFT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR 
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COULD WORSEN THE FLOODING ACROSS THE 
REGION.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MANKATO...
NEW ULM...WASECA...AND SLEEPY EYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9437 4435 9484 4445 9463 4429 9398
      4430 9361 4406 9340 4404 9341 4394 9415

$$

TDK

383 
WGUS83 KMPX 222312
FLSMPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
612 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

MNC013-015-079-103-161-222327-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140623T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN MN-LE SUEUR MN-NICOLLET MN-WASECA MN-BLUE EARTH MN-
612 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR BLUE EARTH...NORTHERN
WASECA...NICOLLET...SOUTHERN LE SUEUR AND NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
STREAMS AND CREEKS REMAIN HIGH AND WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE...HOWEVER 
INFORMATION CONCERNING THOSE CAN BE FOUND FROM THE LATEST RIVER 
FLOOD STATEMENTS.

LAT...LON 4411 9437 4435 9484 4445 9463 4429 9398
      4430 9361 4406 9340 4404 9341 4394 9415

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

YET ANOTHER STORMY SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON TAP WITH THIS PERIOD
LOOKING TO CONTINUE THE TREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
AT 4 AM...THE WARM FRONT WAS SPLAYED OUT FROM NEAR YANKTON ENE
TO JUST NORTH OF I-90 IN SRN MN. YET ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT OF THE LLJ
HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP THE MOVED IN
YESTERDAY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE MN/IA BORDER
REGION. STORMS IN THE MPX CWA HAVE REMAINED MAINLY ELEVATED...THOUGH
STORMS ACROSS NRN IA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BASICALLY MAINTAIN THEIR SFC
CONNECTION...HENCE THE TORNADO THAT HAPPENED IN THE SPENCER AREA
AFTER 1 AM. THOUGH NOT ROOTED AT THE SFC...PWATS NEAR 1.75" COMBINED
WITH FREEZING LEVELS OVER 14K FEET HAS RESULTED IN RAINFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 2 IN/HR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO
VEER OVER TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN THE REST OF THE MORNING. BASED ON
THE HRRR AND RAP H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO HANG AROUND THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE WE GET INTO ANOTHER
PRECIP BREAK THAT LOOKS TO LAST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT SETUP.
ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW WILL AGAIN FORCE THE WARM FRONT SOUTH INTO
IA...LIKELY DOWN TO NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION TO THAT...IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...THE RAP SHOWS THE 12C
ISOTHERM AT H7 WORKING BACK UP INTO CENTRAL MN...WHICH WILL PUT A
LID ON THINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE WE JUST SAW
YESTERDAY. LOOKING AT LLJ EVOLUTION...DURING THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MS
VALLEY BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...DELAYED
ANY RAMP UP IN POPS TO LIKELIES UNTIL AFTER 00Z...TRYING ORIENT
THINGS TOWARD THE NSSL/NMM/ARW WRFS...WHICH SHOW STORMS BLOSSOMING
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 3Z. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
WARM FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF IA THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER NE COLORADO WORKING OVER TO
NEAR ABERDEEN TONIGHT.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE SEVERE THREAT? WELL...ONE THING THAT IS
FOR SURE IS INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ISSUE...AS WE SHOULD SEE MLCAPES
IN THE WARM SECTOR AGAIN PUSH 5000 J/KG. FOR A TORNADO THREAT...WE
WOULD HAVE TO BANK ON ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES NORTH. INSTEAD...FEEL OUR MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST MAINLY
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY SORT OF SYSTEM THAT COMES OUT OF THE DAKOTAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AS IT WORKS INTO MN OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO
BE MARGINALLY WEAKER WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...BUT THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO KEEP A WIND/HAIL TREAT GOING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
AS WELL. DECIDED ON NOT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL SET UP THAT IT WAS TO DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN A CORRIDOR FOR
WHERE ONE WOULD BE NEEDED. WITH THE 00Z CAMS...THERE IS A FAVORED
CORRIDOR FOR HEAVY PRECIP FROM SE MN BACK NW TOWARD THE MN/ND/SD
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE ONCE IT IS BETTER KNOWN
WHERE THAT WARM FRONT SETS UP THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING WITH A MODEST LLJ AND
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A
NW-SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM FARGO...TO
DAVENPORT...TO CHICAGO BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS SHOULD STILL
BE RUNNING HIGH WITH 1.50-1.90" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
MEAN STEERING WINDS INDICATE A SLOWER STORM MOTION...THEREFORE
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. THE OVERALL RISK FOR
SEVERE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND MODEST STABILITY TO PROVIDE A MINOR WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
THE COLD FRONT AND GRADUALLY FILLING SURFACE LOW WILL EXTEND BACK
TOWARD THE WEST IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL LOSE SOME OF THEIR DEFINITION AS THEY MOVE
EAST...BUT A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS ENTERS WESTERN MN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRIDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE A DRY DAY
ACROSS MOST OF MN WITH THE BOUNDARIES HAVING SHIFTED EAST INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MUCH
WEAKER. A WARM AND MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WE CAN SIMPLY NOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
THE GOOD NEWS LOCALLY /BAD NEWS FOR SOGGY IA/ IS THAT THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ FOCUSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI/SAT/SUN. THIS SUGGESTS
A LOWER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
18.00Z ECMWF BRINGS A PSEUDO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUE-WED...BUT THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW IT
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MN AND
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...BUT KEAU AND
KRWF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THUNDER. AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...THE
THUNDER THREAT IS TOO UNCERTAIN THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT. THERE IS THE CHANCE...HOWEVER...OF MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING.

KMSP...

WE THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
AIRPORT FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS LINGERING
PAST SUNRISE. AT THE AIRPORT ITSELF...THE UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
COVERAGE THIS FAR NORTH KEEPS US FROM INCLUDING IN THE TAF EARLY
THIS MORNING. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSE AND UPDATE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ082>085-
     091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF
HYDROLOGY...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
539 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
191045-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
539 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND POSE A CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. BY THE WEEKEND...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS. MUCH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER...AND THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SAINT PAUL DOWN TOWARD RED WING COULD REACH
FLOOD STAGE BY THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
218 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 AM     TSTM WND GST     NEW ULM AIRPORT         44.32N 94.50W
06/18/2014  M53 MPH          BROWN              MN   AWOS

0154 AM     TSTM WND GST     FARIBAULT AIRPORT       44.34N 93.31W
06/18/2014  M52 MPH          RICE               MN   AWOS

0215 AM     TSTM WND GST     WASECA AIRPORT          44.08N 93.56W
06/18/2014  M54 MPH          WASECA             MN   AWOS

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
223 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FARIBAULT               44.30N 93.27W
06/18/2014  M1.57 INCH       RICE               MN   PUBLIC

            READING TAKEN NEAR HIGHWAY 60 AND 35W. RELAYED BY HAM
            RADIO OPERATOR.

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
230 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HAIL             ST LOUIS PARK           44.95N 93.36W
06/17/2014  M0.75 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   STORM CHASER

1113 PM     HAIL             1 N GOOD THUNDER        44.02N 94.07W
06/17/2014  M1.00 INCH       BLUE EARTH         MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1138 PM     HAIL             1 SSE SKYLINE           44.13N 94.03W
06/17/2014  M1.00 INCH       BLUE EARTH         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1209 AM     HAIL             MANKATO                 44.17N 93.99W
06/18/2014  M0.88 INCH       BLUE EARTH         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRED OVER WESTERN PORTION OF CITY ALONG HIGHWAY 14.

1222 AM     HAIL             MANKATO                 44.17N 93.99W
06/18/2014  M0.75 INCH       BLUE EARTH         MN   PUBLIC

            OCCURRED OVER SOUTH MANKATO. RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

1222 AM     HAIL             MANKATO                 44.17N 93.99W
06/18/2014  M1.25 INCH       BLUE EARTH         MN   PUBLIC

            OCCURRED OVER SOUTH SIDE OF CITY. RELAYED BY BROADCAST
            MEDIA.

1240 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MANKATO                 44.17N 93.99W
06/18/2014                   BLUE EARTH         MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE WITHIN THE CITY LIMITS.

1242 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SW MANKATO            44.10N 94.09W
06/18/2014                   BLUE EARTH         MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER UP TO CAR BUMPERS. OCCURRED IN RAPIDAN.

0103 AM     HAIL             FARIBAULT               44.30N 93.27W
06/18/2014  M1.00 INCH       RICE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED VIA HAM RADIO OPERATOR.

0112 AM     HAIL             FARIBAULT               44.30N 93.27W
06/18/2014  M1.00 INCH       RICE               MN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HAIL IS PICKING UP IN INTENSITY.

0117 AM     HAIL             FARIBAULT               44.30N 93.27W
06/18/2014  M1.00 INCH       RICE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OCCURRED OVER SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CITY.

0154 AM     TSTM WND GST     NEW ULM AIRPORT         44.32N 94.50W
06/18/2014  M53.00 MPH       BROWN              MN   AWOS

0154 AM     TSTM WND GST     FARIBAULT AIRPORT       44.34N 93.31W
06/18/2014  M52.00 MPH       RICE               MN   AWOS

0215 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FARIBAULT               44.30N 93.27W
06/18/2014  M1.57 INCH       RICE               MN   PUBLIC

            READING TAKEN NEAR HIGHWAY 60 AND 35W. RELAYED BY HAM
            RADIO OPERATOR.

0215 AM     TSTM WND GST     WASECA AIRPORT          44.08N 93.56W
06/18/2014  M54.00 MPH       WASECA             MN   AWOS

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     TSTM WND GST     NEW ULM AIRPORT         44.32N 94.50W
06/18/2014  M49 MPH          BROWN              MN   AWOS

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
239 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     TSTM WND GST     NEW ULM AIRPORT         44.32N 94.50W
06/18/2014  M56.00 MPH       BROWN              MN   AWOS

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ALDEN                   43.67N 93.58W
06/18/2014                   FREEBORN           MN   911 CALL CENTER

            PART OF ROOF BLOWN OFF. POWER OUT IN TOWN.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM