Special Marine Warning 166, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS...
SOUTHWEST AL AND THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AL...AND THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADUAL WESTWARD EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH 8 AM CST. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE MARINE
ZONES UNTIL 8 AM CST. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
23.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WHILE IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG
WILL ALSO IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-65.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 23.10-12Z...WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS EARLY TO
MID TUESDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  71  57  60  37 /  50 100 100  20  05
PENSACOLA   65  71  62  66  41 /  50 100 100  40  10
DESTIN      66  70  64  68  45 /  50 100 100  50  10
EVERGREEN   61  72  60  64  37 /  50 100 100  40  10
WAYNESBORO  61  70  52  55  34 /  50 100  90  20  10
CAMDEN      61  72  58  62  37 /  50 100 100  30  10
CRESTVIEW   62  71  63  67  39 /  50 100 100  50  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER
     BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
     ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...
     UPPER MOBILE...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
412 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-232215-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
412 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES...WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA
BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WATCH
AREA...WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE MAINLY IN URBAN CORRIDORS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE ELEVATED TO A HIGH RISK BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-232215-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
412 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.