Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN EARLIER START TO THE CONVECTION TODAY THANKS IN
PART TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED IN FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING PREVENTED THE STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO STRONG...AND NOW THE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING.

THIS EVENING...A QUICK RADAR/SATELLITE ANALYSIS REVEALS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST COAST WHERE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS HAS THINNED AND ALLOWED FOR ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING.
NOT EXPECTING TO SEE OUR SKIES CLEAR COMPLETELY...SO ADDITIONAL
HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BEFORE SUNSET. REGARDLESS...COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND SHOULD ALLOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THIS EVENING.
ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.

SATURDAY...TROUGHINESS LINGERS IN THE MID LEVELS AND KEEPS THE
WESTERLY FLOW GOING ABOVE 850MB. MEANWHILE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...MAKING IT AS
FAR NORTH AS THE TREASURE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE
WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN SO PREVALENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL AFTERNOONS
WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TREASURE COAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND A LITTLE
FASTER SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. WITH 500MB TEMPS REMAINING NEAR
-10C...ALONG WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER
ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST
TOMORROW...HOWEVER...STORMS MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME MAKING IT BACK
TOWARDS THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO THE FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION
OF THE SEA BREEZE. OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE
CAPE.

SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES ITS MARCH NORTHWARD...ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE. LIGHTER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION FURTHER INLAND DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MON-THU...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL COMPLETE ITS RELOCATION BACK TO THE FL
PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MERGES WITH THE POST FRONTAL
RIDGE AND FILLS IN THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF. THE RESULTING ERLY
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM
EARLIER AND MAKE A DEEPER INLAND PENETRATION. DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...BUT THE
FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY TO START THE WEEK...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST PENINSULA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS OF 19Z...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY PUSHING OFF
THE TREASURE COAST. ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET
SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA AND SOME TSRA THROUGH
01Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST NOW...AS
OF 19Z...WITH A FEW MORE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
NOW AND SUNSET. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
RESURGENCE OF WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. 5-10KTS/1-2FT NEARSHORE
AND 10-15KTS/2-3FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO
MODERATE W/SW BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL
RESULT IN A LIMITED FETCH LENGTH THAT WILL KEEP SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE
AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. THE DEEP WRLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PUSH
DIURNAL CONVECTION OFFSHORE..ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MON-TUE...RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK N TO THE PANHANDLE...WITH A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE SHIFTING TO THE S/SE. SEAS
1-2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  89  69  89 /  30  60  30  50
MCO  71  91  71  91 /  30  60  20  50
MLB  72  88  71  89 /  30  50  30  40
VRB  71  89  71  89 /  30  50  30  40
LEE  72  90  72  92 /  30  60  20  50
SFB  73  92  72  91 /  30  60  20  50
ORL  73  91  74  91 /  30  60  20  50
FPR  71  88  69  89 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1139 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-132200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1139 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 25 MPH. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ONE OR TWO
STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE CAPE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT THE BEACHES
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD
AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AT 25 MPH ACROSS THE LARGER INLAND
LAKES AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THEN THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.

A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY/SEDLOCK

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