Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Melbourne, FL

621 
WWUS52 KMLB 141829
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

FLC095-141839-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-140614T1845Z/
ORANGE-
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO
LONGER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. AS A
RESULT...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 2846 8152 2861 8113 2861 8096 2856 8093
      2854 8094 2851 8090 2851 8089 2849 8087
      2847 8087 2845 8090 2841 8088 2838 8089
      2835 8112 2835 8148
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 255DEG 22KT 2847 8106

$$

BOWEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
929 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LIES JUST SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CURRENTLY REIGNS
OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST ORIENTED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH PENINSULA. MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING
SOUNDING FROM THE CAPE (KXMR) SHOWS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
1.83 INCHES THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS EARLY OF A
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS ON FRI WE STILL CARRY A 60 PERCENT CHANCE
AREAWIDE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. STEERING FLOW
REMAINS WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR CELLS. MANY CELLS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL AGAIN MOVE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM LAND. SHORT-TERM MODELS HINT AT INITIAL STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST WITH FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE POCKET OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR HAS
MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SFC
HEATING SOMEWHAT SO THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. BUT COOL TEMPS ALOFT (-9 TO -10C AT 500
MB) AND PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PRODUCE
A FEW STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

TONIGHT...PREVIOUS...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE (30 PERCENT) POPS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA ENDING BY MIDNIGHT ESP OVER THE INTERIOR.
CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OVER THE ATLC OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/ISOLD
IFR CONDS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER
SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY...THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE FURTHER NORTHWARD
INTO THE TREASURE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE
INITIATION SHOULD BE NOTICED HERE. ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS AOB 3 FT. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS CONTAINING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...PREVIOUS...THE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SO THE W/SW FLOW SHOULD BE NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SEDLOCK/BOWEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-150300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL
INITIALLY BE ACROSS LAKE...VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE
AND PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR LIGHTNING STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH OF ORLANDO. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS EXISTS...SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING
WILL COMBINE WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG
STORMS CONTAINING DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT THE BEACHES
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD
AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE LARGER INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY
AND BEYOND WITH DECREASING CHANCE FOR PUSH BACK TO THE EAST COAST.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.

A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LOW TO
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY/BOWEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1250 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

FLZ044>046-053-144-141730-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
1250 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...WESTERN
SEMINOLE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT.

AT 1246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE THE THEME PARKS...BAY HILL...BELLE
ISLE...DOCTOR PHILLIPS AND HORIZON WEST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2885 8196 2884 8133 2883 8124 2828 8122
      2824 8155 2826 8156 2826 8166 2834 8167
      2834 8179 2836 8180 2836 8185 2834 8186
      2835 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 259DEG 18KT 2840 8166

BOWEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
133 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

FLZ045-046-053-141815-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
133 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER ORANGE COUNTY...NORTHERN
OSCEOLA COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT.

AT 132 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER CENTRAL
ORANGE COUNTY AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE FAIRVIEW SHORES...FERN PARK...ORLANDO
EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND UNION PARK.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2854 8166 2882 8122 2878 8118 2879 8114
      2883 8112 2881 8107 2879 8106 2875 8106
      2869 8102 2867 8102 2862 8099 2828 8086
      2825 8086 2826 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 244DEG 22KT 2857 8134

BOWEN