Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON TAP FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
CONVECTION ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TROUGH AXIS
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SO CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY THAT ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS
MORNING'S ACTIVITY.

WINDS AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PINNED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. WINDS
ALOFT HAVE SUBTLELY SHIFTED...WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
500MB...NORTH OF WEST ABOVE THAT. REGARDLESS...THESE WESTERLY
WINDS COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLE SUNSHINE
PORTEND A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS EXISTS TODAY DUE TO DRY AIR
INTRUSION ABOVE 500MB. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT...-9 TO
-10C...WILL MAINTAIN DECENT LAPSE RATES AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SMALL HAIL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN EARLIER START TO SHRA AND TSRA THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED AS THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MOVES ON. DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY OF TODAYS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVENCTION LIKELY TO LAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS
KMLB/KVRB/KFPR/KSUA. EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE
KVRB/KFPR/KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THIS MORNING WITH 5-10 KT EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS MELBOURNE. BIGGEST CONCERN
RELATED TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE...SOME STRONG
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE S/SW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
15-20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS. ONGOING CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE EVE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  70  88  73 /  50  20  60  30
MCO  92  71  92  72 /  50  20  50  20
MLB  89  71  88  73 /  60  20  60  30
VRB  88  70  89  73 /  60  30  60  30
LEE  91  72  91  73 /  50  20  50  20
SFB  93  73  92  73 /  50  20  50  20
ORL  92  74  92  74 /  50  20  50  20
FPR  88  70  89  73 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1139 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-132200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1139 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 25 MPH. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ONE OR TWO
STORMS ESPECIALLY AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE CAPE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT THE BEACHES
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD
AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AT 25 MPH ACROSS THE LARGER INLAND
LAKES AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THEN THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.

A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY/SEDLOCK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1126 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

FLZ045-046-131615-
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
1126 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH OVER ORANGE COUNTY...WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT.

AT 1124 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM WINTER
GARDEN TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF SEA WORLD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE BAY HILL...BELLE ISLE...DOCTOR PHILLIPS AND FAIRVIEW SHORES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2879 8125 2835 8105 2835 8149 2835 8166
      2857 8166 2859 8165 2859 8166 2866 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1526Z 258DEG 25KT 2857 8156 2844 8149
          2830 8147

SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1158 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

FLZ041-141-131630-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
1158 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH OVER CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT.

AT 1154 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER DAYTONA
INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE DAYTONA BEACH AIRPORT...DAYTONA BEACH SHORES AND NEW SMYRNA
BEACH AIRPORT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2916 8097 2910 8092 2908 8093 2907 8090
      2904 8088 2903 8089 2901 8087 2897 8085
      2887 8127 2921 8128 2928 8103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 268DEG 26KT 2913 8107

SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1201 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

FLZ041-045>047-053-141-147-131700-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1201 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH OVER NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN
ORANGE COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 100 PM EDT.

AT 1159 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM GENEVA
TO HARMONY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE KLONDIKE BEACH...AUSTIN TINDALL PARK...CANAVERAL GROVES AND
JETTY PARK.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2840 8058 2832 8060 2831 8064 2822 8077
      2806 8129 2836 8140 2886 8129 2897 8084
      2859 8057 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 271DEG 26KT 2880 8107 2853 8114
          2835 8119 2814 8118

SEDLOCK