Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON TAP FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
CONVECTION ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TROUGH AXIS
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SO CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY THAT ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS
MORNING'S ACTIVITY.

WINDS AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PINNED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. WINDS
ALOFT HAVE SUBTLELY SHIFTED...WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
500MB...NORTH OF WEST ABOVE THAT. REGARDLESS...THESE WESTERLY
WINDS COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLE SUNSHINE
PORTEND A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS EXISTS TODAY DUE TO DRY AIR
INTRUSION ABOVE 500MB. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT...-9 TO
-10C...WILL MAINTAIN DECENT LAPSE RATES AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SMALL HAIL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN EARLIER START TO SHRA AND TSRA THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED AS THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MOVES ON. DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY OF TODAYS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVENCTION LIKELY TO LAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS
KMLB/KVRB/KFPR/KSUA. EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE
KVRB/KFPR/KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THIS MORNING WITH 5-10 KT EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS MELBOURNE. BIGGEST CONCERN
RELATED TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE...SOME STRONG
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE S/SW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
15-20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS. ONGOING CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE EVE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  70  88  73 /  50  20  60  30
MCO  92  71  92  72 /  50  20  50  20
MLB  89  71  88  73 /  60  20  60  30
VRB  88  70  89  73 /  60  30  60  30
LEE  91  72  91  73 /  50  20  50  20
SFB  93  73  92  73 /  50  20  50  20
ORL  92  74  92  74 /  50  20  50  20
FPR  88  70  89  73 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....SEDLOCK

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