Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Milwaukee, WI

144 
WWUS53 KMKX 122331
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
631 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIC021-027-130000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140413T0000Z/
DODGE WI-COLUMBIA WI-
631 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN DODGE AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 631 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANDOLPH TO NEAR PARDEEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BEAVER DAM AROUND 635 PM CDT.
  WAUPUN AROUND 645 PM CDT.
  CAMBRIA AROUND 655 PM CDT.
  MAYVILLE...LOMIRA AND RANDOLPH AROUND 700 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
ASTICO...SOUTH BEAVER DAM...FOX LAKE...DOYLESTOWN...BURNETT...
KNOWLES...MINNESOTA JUNCTION...WYOCENA...LEIPSIG AND FRIESLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4363 8840 4349 8856 4339 8877 4343 8946
      4362 8950 4364 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 267DEG 30KT 4358 8891 4348 8939 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

CRAVEN

493 
WWUS53 KMKX 122348
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
648 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIC021-027-130000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140413T0000Z/
DODGE WI-COLUMBIA WI-
648 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN DODGE AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 648 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WAUPUN TO NEAR CAMBRIA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAVER DAM...WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...HORICON...LOMIRA...RANDOLPH...
CAMBRIA...BURNETT...FOX LAKE...BROWNSVILLE...FRIESLAND...
DOYLESTOWN...KEKOSKEE...ASTICO...SOUTH BEAVER DAM...KNOWLES...
MINNESOTA JUNCTION...LEIPSIG AND ATWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4363 8840 4349 8856 4339 8877 4341 8916
      4354 8911 4364 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 270DEG 32KT 4361 8864 4346 8911 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

CRAVEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
243 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NUDGED INTO SC
WI. MASSIVE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...MID/UPPER 30S
IN THE NE CWA AND MID 70S IN THE SOUTH WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 50S. ELEVATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING STILL TRAVERSING ACROSS CNTRL AND PORTIONS
OF SRN WI. THIS INITIAL 850 JET CORE WILL TRANSLATE EAST. MEANWHILE
STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURING FROM IOWA AND
ILLINOIS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS INTO FAR
SC WI. INSTABILITY PROGS...LI/S...MLCAPE...CRAVEN SIG/SVR...K INDEX
ALL SHOW THE DESTABILIZING TREND WELL INTO SC WI. 4KM WRF/RAP/HRRR
ARE ALL KEYING ON WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IA WITH STORMS
TRANSLATING ACRS SRN WI THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE IN KS PROGGD TO LIFT
NE AND HELP INTIIATE STORMS WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR. ADDING FURTHER
SUPPORT WILL BE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF 200-300 MILLIBAR JET ACROSS U.P. STRONGEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT...ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH. LAKE MICHIGAN HAS HAD ITS SAY
ON HOLDING UP THE NORTHWARD PUSH IN ERN WI. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
NEGATIVE IS THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. BOTTOM LINE...AT
THIS POINT ENOUGH FAVORABLE FACTORS IN PLACE TO WARRANT THE SPC
SLIGHT RISK INTO SRN WI. SVR THREAT APPEARS GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE SFC WRM FRONT IN SC WI.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ACTIVE PATERN PERSISTS. WHILE ONE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THE ACTIVE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES. PROGS SUGGEST
A POTENTIAL LULL IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF STEADY
RAINS/THUNDER RIDING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. 850 BAROCLINIC TIGHTENS
UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH A RENWED 850 JET CORE INCREASING ACROSS
ILLINOIS. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE FORCING ACROSS SRN WI.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE 250 MB WINDS DO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE.

THE 925/850/700 MB LATER IS SATURATED SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DOES DRY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

700 UPWARD MOTION IS STRONG SUNDAY EVENING BUT WEAKENS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DOWNWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TIP.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF TAKES A LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPREADS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE VALUES DROP...AND
NAM SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER THIS
HAPPENS AFTER MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALLS...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND CONVERGENCE BEHIND. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECOMES DOWNWARD.

MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN RH WEST OF MADISON
BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT
SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS OCCURS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM COLORADO TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH AND WEST
WEDNESDAY.

THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A STRONGER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
12Z GFS KEEPS THE MAIN LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS.
THE 12Z GFS LIFTS THIS LOW INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF BRINGS IN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND ITS DEPARTING LOW.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THE 12Z GFS MOVES THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS THE SURFACE HIGH. THE TIMING
REMAINS OFF BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN
INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
MADISON.

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LONG DURATION OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF TONIGHTS RAIN...AND THE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE.

HAVE ISSUED AN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SC WI WITH MORE STABLE
EASTERLY FLOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN WC WI
LIKELY TO STAY NORTH OF TAF ROUTES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN RENEWED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS IA AND ROLLS ACROSS SRN WI NEAR WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. AS LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ACRS SRN WI TNGT AND SUNDAY
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR. THIS PLAYED OUT ON MOS AND
LLVL RH PROGS. WHILE A BREAK IN RAIN/STORMS POSSIBEL DURING THE
MORNING EXPECTE A RENEWED SURGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PRETTY BORDERLINE NORTH OF SFC WARM
FRONT THOUGH SOME ONSHORE GUSTS TO AOA 20 KNOTS...SO WILL LEAVE AS
IS. AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY JUST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN LAKE ZONE. CONFIDNCE NOT HIGH
THAT THAT WARM FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO DRIVE NORTH ESPECIALLY WITH
SURFACE LOW WEAKENING TO MORE OF A BROAD TROUGH. GRADIENT TRYING TO
TIGHTEN UP AND WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A SMIDGE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-132015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD SEE RAPID RISES AND WE/LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THEM FOR ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING.

THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AN
INCH OR LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-132015-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY EAST. THE WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTH MAINLY SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY NEAR THE SHORELINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AND THERE IS A RISK OF HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
524 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIZ051-052-122300-
FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-
524 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...

AT 524 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR FOND DU
LAC...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHEBOYGAN...FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...NORTH FOND DU
LAC...HOWARDS GROVE...OOSTBURG...KOHLER...ELKHART LAKE...
TAYCHEEDAH...BYRON...GREENBUSH...EDEN...MOUNT CALVARY...CASCADE...
WALDO...ST. CLOUD...GLENBEULAH...JOHNSBURG AND DUNDEE.

LAT...LON 4363 8774 4364 8852 4389 8851 4389 8841
      4391 8840 4391 8816 4389 8816 4389 8773
      4383 8773 4377 8771 4372 8771 4370 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 271DEG 44KT 4383 8837

CRAVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
530 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             REEDSBURG               43.53N 90.00W
04/12/2014  M1.50 INCH       SAUK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
539 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             5 NNE PORTAGE           43.61N 89.43W
04/12/2014  M0.75 INCH       COLUMBIA           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            SOURCE AA9ZS.

&&

BHAHN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
548 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIZ062-122330-
IOWA-
548 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT IOWA...

AT 548 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES EAST OF
FENNIMORE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOSCOBEL...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DODGEVILLE AROUND 610 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BARNEVELD...LINDEN...
GOVERNOR DODGE ST PARK...BLUE MOUND ST PARK...RIDGEWAY...EDMUND...
HIGHLAND...COBB...LONDON AND BLACKHAWK LAKE REC AREA.

LAT...LON 4313 9042 4318 9024 4317 9015 4315 9005
      4316 9005 4319 9001 4319 8986 4321 8984
      4309 8983 4298 8984 4289 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 253DEG 37KT 4301 9049

WOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
607 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIZ047-051-057-058-122345-
GREEN LAKE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-COLUMBIA-
607 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GREEN LAKE...DODGE...
FOND DU LAC AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 606 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR WAUPUN...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WAUPUN AROUND 615 PM CDT.
  OAKFIELD AROUND 625 PM CDT.
  LOMIRA AROUND 635 PM CDT.
  CAMPBELLSPORT AROUND 645 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE NEW FANE...ASTICO...
FOX LAKE...ASHFORD...ALTO...KNOWLES...OAK CENTER...WAUCOUSTA...
ATWATER AND BROWNSVILLE.

LAT...LON 4376 8818 4355 8817 4351 8901 4369 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 267DEG 40KT 4361 8884

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
611 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             PARDEEVILLE             43.53N 89.30W
04/12/2014  M1.00 INCH       COLUMBIA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MG