Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Milwaukee, WI

446 
WWUS53 KMKX 122241
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
541 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIC021-111-122315-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140412T2315Z/
SAUK WI-COLUMBIA WI-
541 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SAUK AND NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 540 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PORTAGE...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...LAKE DELTON...PARDEEVILLE...
RANDOLPH...WEST BARABOO...RIO...CAMBRIA...WYOCENA...FRIESLAND AND
ROCKY ARBOR STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4363 8912 4363 8901 4345 8901 4345 8982
      4364 8981 4364 8913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 272DEG 36KT 4355 8949 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

CRAVEN

643 
WWUS53 KMKX 122255
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
555 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIC021-111-122315-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140412T2315Z/
SAUK WI-COLUMBIA WI-
555 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SAUK AND NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 555 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PARDEEVILLE...
OR 9 MILES EAST OF PORTAGE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...LAKE DELTON...PARDEEVILLE...
RANDOLPH...WEST BARABOO...RIO...CAMBRIA...WYOCENA...FRIESLAND AND
ROCKY ARBOR STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4363 8912 4363 8901 4345 8901 4345 8982
      4364 8981 4364 8913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 269DEG 36KT 4357 8929 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

CRAVEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
243 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS NUDGED INTO SC
WI. MASSIVE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...MID/UPPER 30S
IN THE NE CWA AND MID 70S IN THE SOUTH WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 50S. ELEVATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING STILL TRAVERSING ACROSS CNTRL AND PORTIONS
OF SRN WI. THIS INITIAL 850 JET CORE WILL TRANSLATE EAST. MEANWHILE
STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURING FROM IOWA AND
ILLINOIS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS INTO FAR
SC WI. INSTABILITY PROGS...LI/S...MLCAPE...CRAVEN SIG/SVR...K INDEX
ALL SHOW THE DESTABILIZING TREND WELL INTO SC WI. 4KM WRF/RAP/HRRR
ARE ALL KEYING ON WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IA WITH STORMS
TRANSLATING ACRS SRN WI THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE IN KS PROGGD TO LIFT
NE AND HELP INTIIATE STORMS WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR. ADDING FURTHER
SUPPORT WILL BE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF 200-300 MILLIBAR JET ACROSS U.P. STRONGEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT...ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH. LAKE MICHIGAN HAS HAD ITS SAY
ON HOLDING UP THE NORTHWARD PUSH IN ERN WI. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
NEGATIVE IS THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. BOTTOM LINE...AT
THIS POINT ENOUGH FAVORABLE FACTORS IN PLACE TO WARRANT THE SPC
SLIGHT RISK INTO SRN WI. SVR THREAT APPEARS GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE SFC WRM FRONT IN SC WI.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ACTIVE PATERN PERSISTS. WHILE ONE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THE ACTIVE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES. PROGS SUGGEST
A POTENTIAL LULL IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF STEADY
RAINS/THUNDER RIDING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. 850 BAROCLINIC TIGHTENS
UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH A RENWED 850 JET CORE INCREASING ACROSS
ILLINOIS. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE FORCING ACROSS SRN WI.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE 250 MB WINDS DO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE.

THE 925/850/700 MB LATER IS SATURATED SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DOES DRY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

700 UPWARD MOTION IS STRONG SUNDAY EVENING BUT WEAKENS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DOWNWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TIP.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF TAKES A LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPREADS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE VALUES DROP...AND
NAM SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER THIS
HAPPENS AFTER MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALLS...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND CONVERGENCE BEHIND. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BECOMES DOWNWARD.

MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN RH WEST OF MADISON
BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT
SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH WINDS OCCURS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM COLORADO TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH AND WEST
WEDNESDAY.

THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A STRONGER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
12Z GFS KEEPS THE MAIN LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS.
THE 12Z GFS LIFTS THIS LOW INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF BRINGS IN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND ITS DEPARTING LOW.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THE 12Z GFS MOVES THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS THE SURFACE HIGH. THE TIMING
REMAINS OFF BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN
INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
MADISON.

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A LONG DURATION OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE
COMBINATION OF TONIGHTS RAIN...AND THE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE.

HAVE ISSUED AN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SC WI WITH MORE STABLE
EASTERLY FLOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN WC WI
LIKELY TO STAY NORTH OF TAF ROUTES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN RENEWED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS IA AND ROLLS ACROSS SRN WI NEAR WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. AS LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ACRS SRN WI TNGT AND SUNDAY
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR. THIS PLAYED OUT ON MOS AND
LLVL RH PROGS. WHILE A BREAK IN RAIN/STORMS POSSIBEL DURING THE
MORNING EXPECTE A RENEWED SURGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PRETTY BORDERLINE NORTH OF SFC WARM
FRONT THOUGH SOME ONSHORE GUSTS TO AOA 20 KNOTS...SO WILL LEAVE AS
IS. AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE BUT
LIKELY JUST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN LAKE ZONE. CONFIDNCE NOT HIGH
THAT THAT WARM FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO DRIVE NORTH ESPECIALLY WITH
SURFACE LOW WEAKENING TO MORE OF A BROAD TROUGH. GRADIENT TRYING TO
TIGHTEN UP AND WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A SMIDGE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-132015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD SEE RAPID RISES AND WE/LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THEM FOR ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING.

THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AN
INCH OR LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-132015-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY EAST. THE WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTH MAINLY SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY NEAR THE SHORELINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AND THERE IS A RISK OF HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
511 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             1 E REEDSBURG           43.53N 89.98W
04/12/2014  E0.88 INCH       SAUK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
516 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W MARYTOWN            43.91N 88.28W
04/12/2014                   FOND DU LAC        WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO ELECTRICAL POLES BLOWN OVER BY HIGH WINDS.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
518 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 N SHEBOYGAN           43.88N 87.72W
04/12/2014                   LMZ643             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR MANITOWOC COUNTY LINE SOUTH OF CLEAVLAND. GAZEABO
            BLOWN OVER. FENCE BLOWN OVER HOUSE.

&&

HENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
522 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             1 SW LAKE DELTON        43.58N 89.79W
04/12/2014  E0.88 INCH       SAUK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

0519 PM     HAIL             LAKE DELTON             43.59N 89.78W
04/12/2014  E1.00 INCH       SAUK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

&&

MG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
524 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIZ046-047-057-122300-
GREEN LAKE-MARQUETTE-COLUMBIA-
524 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREEN LAKE...MARQUETTE...
COLUMBIA...

AT 523 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MONTELLO...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF PORTAGE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PACKWAUKEE...ENDEAVOR...FRIESLAND...KINGSTON...MARQUETTE...GLEN OAK
AND DALTON.

LAT...LON 4359 8955 4377 8954 4379 8906 4359 8904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 272DEG 34KT 4368 8944

HENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
524 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIZ051-052-122300-
FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-
524 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...

AT 524 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR FOND DU
LAC...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHEBOYGAN...FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...NORTH FOND DU
LAC...HOWARDS GROVE...OOSTBURG...KOHLER...ELKHART LAKE...
TAYCHEEDAH...BYRON...GREENBUSH...EDEN...MOUNT CALVARY...CASCADE...
WALDO...ST. CLOUD...GLENBEULAH...JOHNSBURG AND DUNDEE.

LAT...LON 4363 8774 4364 8852 4389 8851 4389 8841
      4391 8840 4391 8816 4389 8816 4389 8773
      4383 8773 4377 8771 4372 8771 4370 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 271DEG 44KT 4383 8837

CRAVEN