Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
533 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND LINGER OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 530 PM THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. MAIN LINE OF
STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD APPROACH
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS
OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
PER LATEST HRRR-3KM AND RAP MODELS...CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY
DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST AND LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
UNTIL COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z
OR SO. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE WET GROUND AND A QUICK DROP-OFF IN WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW POP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...REGION REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY
THAT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ON SAT BUT HIGH PRES SHOULD DOMINATE. THE
DETERMINISTIC 04/12Z GFS/ECM REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL...HOWEVER THE EC ENSMOS POPS INDICATE SOME SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM. NAM AND CMC ARE ALSO HINTING AT THIS
POSSIBILITY SO HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 70.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH MON AND STALL OR WASH
OUT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS AS INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THREAT
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT AS AREA WILL BE
UNDER A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RISE TO
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS MON THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90 DEGREE RANGE...WITH LOWS UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGES ARE SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
HVY AT TIMES WHICH MAY BRING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BELOW VFR. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BTW 00 TO 03Z.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER TAF SITES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED RAIN. HAVE ADDED MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS...IT WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...THEREFORE
BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PC SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. TYPICAL ISO/SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MON
THROUGH MID WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO A SUMMERLIKE PATTERN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM THURSDAY...HAVE UPDATED FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS FRONT
DIVES SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND WINDS ARE BECOMING NW/N. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH ACTIVE STRONG CONVECTION UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
29 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET AND DIAMOND BUOY WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING
AS HIGH AS 9 TO 10 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FORECAST FROM THE VARIOUS NEAR-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFF
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES BY AROUND 06Z OR SO. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS.
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE SCA FOR
THE REMAINING WATERS EXPIRE AT 11 PM TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...WINDS WILL BE NE 5-15 KT THIS WEEKEND WITH DECENT
BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT SE
SUN WITH SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH SUN. WINDS VEER FURTHER TO S ON MON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAKENING FRONT. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BM
MARINE...CTC/TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
505 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-060915-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
505 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-103-104-060915-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
505 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             2 W BAYBORO             35.14N  76.80W
06/05/2014  E0.25 INCH       PAMLICO            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1400386

SAAVEDRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
448 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND OREGON INLET            35.80N  75.54W
06/05/2014  M39 MPH          DARE               NC   WEATHER FLOW

            WEATHERFLOW SENSOR AT OREGON INLET REPORTED A GUST OF
            34 KNOTS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1400387

SK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
457 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

NCZ047-081-103-052200-
MAINLAND HYDE-OUTER BANKS DARE-WESTERN DARE-
457 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND HYDE...OUTER BANKS
DARE AND MAINLAND DARE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RODANTHE TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MIDDLETOWN...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 27 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANNS HARBOR TO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ENGELHARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...RODANTHE...HATTERAS
ISLAND FISHING PIER......MIDDLETOWN...WAVES...SALVO...AVON......AVON
PIER.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 7549 3533 7552 3557 7548 3568 7551
      3559 7578 3547 7551 3546 7552 3558 7576
      3556 7585 3561 7588 3545 7600 3559 7625
      3570 7571 3567 7576 3562 7572 3568 7551
      3575 7550 3560 7545
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 299DEG 22KT 3568 7534 3554 7612

26

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
501 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

NCZ094-095-052200-
CARTERET-PAMLICO-
501 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PAMLICO AND CARTERET
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 501 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CEDAR ISLAND TO 6 MILES
EAST OF JAMES CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ORIENTAL...PINEY
ISLAND...JANEIRO...MINNESOTT BEACH...SOUTH RIVER.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 7669 3496 7681 3505 7696 3511 7694
      3512 7655 3501 7670 3498 7659 3508 7642
      3495 7645 3498 7634 3504 7636 3498 7615
      3497 7615 3484 7632 3484 7634 3491 7626
      3483 7642 3483 7669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 313DEG 11KT 3506 7638 3504 7691

TL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
528 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE BAYBORO            35.14N  76.77W
06/05/2014                   PAMLICO            NC   SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 12-46A REPORTED TREES DOWN NEAR BAYBORO... ALSO
            REPORTED TIDELAND ELECTRIC COMPANY REPORTED 300 PLUS
            CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1400388

SAAVEDRA

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