Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2014
Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Jul 21, 2014, 1:24 PM PDT for Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California; 7 counties in Oregon. It took effect at Jul 22, 2014, 11:00 AM PDT. It was in force for 12 hr. 11 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 2014, 1:24 PM PDT (20:24 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 22, 2014, 11:00 AM PDT
- Expired
- Jul 22, 2014, 11:00 PM PDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Siskiyou County, CA, Douglas County, OR, Harney County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR, Lane County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 4:20 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 0.46 | 3 Ese Talent, OR | HEAVY RAIN. OCCURRED FROM 3:50PM - 4:10 PM. NO HAIL. SAW ROUGHLY 25 STRIKES. MAX WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 35MPH HEAVY RAIN DURATION 20 MINUTES. OBSERVER LOCATION 3 MI E. OF ASHLAND. |
| Jul 22, 4:30 PM PDT | HAIL 1 | 10 Se Somes Bar, CA | |
| Jul 22, 5:30 PM PDT | TSTM WND GST 50 | 7 Nne Diamond Lake, OR | CINNAMON BUTTE LOOKOUT TOWER REPORTED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 |
| Jul 22, 5:37 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 0.25 | 3 Ne Applegate, OR | VERY INTENSE, NO HAIL, NOT MUCH WINDS. 0.25 INCH IN LAST 5 MINUTES (5:30-5:35PM) HEAVY RAIN DURATION 5 MINUTES. OBSERVER LOCATION 3 MILE MARK ON HUMBUG CR ROAD. |
| Jul 22, 5:41 PM PDT | TSTM WND GST 50 | Rogue River, OR | ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME SIZED HAIL. TSTM WND GST DURATION 20 MINUTES. OBSERVER LOCATION IN ROGUE RIVER ABOUT 1 OR 2 MILE NE OF CITY HALL. |
| Jul 22, 5:54 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 0.36 | 2 Ese Jacksonville, OR | TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS HEAVY RAIN OF 0.36 INCHES WITHIN 10 MINUTES. HEAVY RAIN DURATION 10 MINUTES. OBSERVER LOCATION ABOUT 3 MI EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. |
| Jul 22, 6:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 0.36 | 7 Nnw Rogue River, OR | SPOTTER MEASURED 0.36 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN A 15 MINUTE WINDOW FROM 6:00-6:15 PM. OVERNIGHT TOTAL RAINFALL HAS REACHED 0.41 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN DURATION 15 MINUTES. OBSERVER LOCATION ASHLAND. |
| Jul 22, 7:45 PM PDT | HAIL 1 | 5 Nw Somes Bar, CA | QUARTER SIZED HAIL BY SALMON RIVER RD BETWEEN FORKS OF SALMON AND SOMES BAR, CA. MUDSLIDES ALSO REPORTED ON SALMON RIVER RD. HAIL OCCURRED BETWEEN 4:30-4:45 PM. HAIL DURATION 5 MINUTES. |
| Jul 22, 8:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 0.9 | 1 Nw Ashland, OR | RAIN REPORTED AT 2000FT ELEVATION, FROM 3:30-4:00PM. GOT 2MM GRAUPEL (SOFT HAIL)... WIMER ST IN NORTH ASHLAND HEAVY RAIN DURATION 30 MINUTES. |
| Jul 22, 8:31 PM PDT | HAIL 0.75 | Frenchglen, OR | |
| Jul 22, 8:44 PM PDT | HAIL 1 | 3 Sse Buena Vista Field, OR | SPOTTER 10 WEST OF DIAMOND REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND 30 MPH WINDS. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1591 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
701 WWUS86 KMFR 212024 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 124 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 CAZ285-ORZ625-220600- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0015.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0017.140721T2100Z-140722T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 124 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AFFECTED AREAS: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ CAZ284-ORZ624-220600- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0015.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0017.140721T2100Z-140722T0600Z/ SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 124 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 624... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 624... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AFFECTED AREAS: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...HEATING WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. A BREAK IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ CAZ280-281-220600- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0016.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0017.140721T2100Z-140722T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- 124 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280 AND 281... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280 AND 281... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 281 AND 280. * THUNDERSTORMS...HEATING WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE TRINITY ALPS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND EXPAND NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT... THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ ORZ617-621>623-220600- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0016.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- 124 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617... 621...622 AND 623... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 622...621...623 AND 617 * THUNDERSTORMS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COMBINING WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS... BUT FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ CAZ282-220600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0017.140721T2100Z-140722T0600Z/ SHASTA-TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- 124 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 282... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONE 282 * THUNDERSTORMS...AN IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOUNT SHASTA ON TUESDAY. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ PETRUCELLI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
5 follow-up statements
737 WWUS86 KMFR 220426 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 926 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 CAZ285-ORZ625-221800- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140722T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 926 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY EVENING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING...BUT A WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY. * AFFECTED AREAS: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS...A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ CAZ284-ORZ624-221800- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140722T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 926 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 624... ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY EVENING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 624... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING...BUT A WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY. * AFFECTED AREAS: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ CAZ280-281-221800- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140722T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- 926 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280 AND 281... ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY EVENING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280 AND 281... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY EVENING...BUT A WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 281 AND 280 * THUNDERSTORMS...A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ CAZ282-220530- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140722T0600Z/ SHASTA-TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- 926 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 282... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. $$ ORZ617-621>623-221800- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- 926 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617...621...622 AND 623... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 622...621...623 AND 617 * THUNDERSTORMS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COMBINING WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS... BUT FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD STOCKTON
297 WWUS86 KMFR 221133 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 433 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE MOST EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DURING THIS EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FASTER THAN NORMAL AT AROUND 35 MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MODERATE. THUS, THERE MAY BE MANY NEW FIRE STARTS. CAZ285-ORZ625-230000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 433 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREAS: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ CAZ284-ORZ624-230000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 433 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 624... * AFFECTED AREAS: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 624. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ CAZ280-281-ORZ617-621>623-230000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.140722T1800Z-140723T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- 433 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...617...621...622 AND 623... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 281...622...621...623...617 AND 280 * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 623. * OUTFLOW WINDS...25 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ DW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
423 WWUS86 KMFR 222334 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 434 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 CAZ285-ORZ625-230600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140723T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 434 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREAS: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ CAZ284-ORZ624-230600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140723T0600Z/ SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 434 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 624... * AFFECTED AREAS: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST EXTENSIVE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 624. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ CAZ280-281-ORZ617-621>623-230600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140723T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- 434 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...617...621...622 AND 623... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 281...622...621...623...617 AND 280. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 623. * OUTFLOW WINDS...30 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ SK VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
544 WWUS86 KMFR 230528 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1028 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 CAZ280-281-284-285-ORZ617-621>624-230630- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140723T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT- WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 1028 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...284...285...617...621... 622...623 AND 624... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 281...622...624...285... 284...621...623...617 AND 280 * THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ALL OF THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 $$ ORZ625-230630- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140723T0600Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 1028 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625... * AFFECTED AREAS: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 625. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END OVER IN THE NEXT HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS THROUGH 11 PM PDT. 30 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN MANY FIRE STARTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FIRE SPREAD IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN AND AS DRYING OCCURS IN THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. && $$ BTL VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
468 WWUS86 KMFR 230600 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 ORZ625-230700- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140723T0600Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625... THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625 * THUNDERSTORMS...ONE LAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5 $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Jul 21, 8:40 AM PDT, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 8:40 AM PDT, 4 hours 44 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014
.DISCUSSION... A FEW DISTINCT AREAS ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING. A
LARGE CLOUD BAND OF THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND MAINLY
WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS ALSO STRETCH
ACROSS MUCH OF KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES AS WELL. A CONVECTIVE
LINE OF CLOUDS EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN-BETWEEN ACROSS SISKIYOU... MODOC...AND
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THESE TWO CLOUD MASSES AND THIS WILL BE
THE AREA OF INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT THAT THE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT SHOULD TAKE ANY STORMS INTO
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE AREAS ARE COVERED BY A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. THIS
IS ALSO THE AREA WHERE THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
STRONG DEFORMATION ALOFT.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PACIFIC TROUGH. THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXPAND WESTWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE
CASCADES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY FROM
AROUND THE CASCADES AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEK...EVEN BELOW NORMAL DURING
THE DAYTIME...THEN BECOMING HOT AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
SANDLER
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAFS...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY TO
MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO STAY ALOFT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE OREGON CASCADES DURING WHICH
TIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCAL MVFR TO IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE STRONGER
CELLS. TONIGHT EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AFTER 22/06Z.
BTL
&&
.MARINE...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/
DISCUSSION... A COUPLE DAYS OF LIKELY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE...
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
CONVECTION OVER NE CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTIVE MIXING
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH MORNING CONVECTION LOOKING TO BE
OFF THE TABLE. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
COLLIDE WITH A SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING VERY STRONG
THETA E CONVERSION FROM THE TRINITY ALPS...INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND UP TO NORTH LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH TH E SHORT WAVE CYCLING THROUGH AROUND MAX HEATING
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KT JET SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT JET THAT IS CENTERED
OVER TAHOE. THE MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH THE 700
MB FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 30KT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CONCERN OF CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MIXING OUT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM SPAWNING BEDS FROM WHERE
THE CELLS WILL HATCH BEFORE RUNNING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OUR AREA.
THE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO THE WEST SIDE AS FAR WEST AS
ROSEBURG WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE CELLS THAT MOVE UP THE WEST SIDE
AS WELL. SVEN
FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAY'S LIGHTNING WAS ENOUGH TO START AT LEAST SEVERAL FIRES IN
THE MODOC AS SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 600 TO 800 LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRED THERE.
FOR TODAY, THE FORECAST AREA LIES VIRTUALLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
CLOUD BANDS THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD BAND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHILE THE ONE TO THE NORTHWEST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM A DEEPENING
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE WEST COAST. TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AREAS
UNDER THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING TODAY WILL BE
THOSE AREAS THAT STAY CLOUD FREE THE LONGEST- MOST LIKELY SISKIYOU
COUNTY, SOUTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.
COMPLICATING THIS PICTURE A BIT IS A SUBTLE, YET NOTABLE, IMPULSE
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
IS INDICATED BY SOME COOLING AT THE 500MB LEVEL AND NOTABLE IN THE
500MB VORTICITY FIELDS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. SUSPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE ISOLATED STORMS
INTO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IN FACT, IT'S LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 282 FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTOGETHER, DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LESS HEATING, INSTABILITY IS NOT
AS GREAT TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY, BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE
EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
ON TUESDAY THE PIVOTING SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ENOUGH DRYING MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO KEEP COVERAGE OF
STORMS ISOLATED THERE, BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY CONFLICTING
SOLUTIONS. IT DOES APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE SISKIYOUS
AND CASCADES AND MIGHT CLIP THE VALLEYS OF JACKSON COUNTY IF THEY
CAN DEVELOP SOON ENOUGH OR OVERWHELM THE AFTERNOON UP VALLEY BREEZE.
ANOTHER INTERESTING ITEM IN THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
NOT BE ALL THAT NUMEROUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE, MAINLY JUST
AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS IS DUE TO DRYING
WORKING IN AND IS LIKELY TO GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
AND STARTS THAT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY VERY WELL GET UP
AND RUN IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY WE'LL LOSE THE
STORMS, BUT WILL SEE ANOTHER GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARMING ARE STILL
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BTL
AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAFS...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY TO
MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO STAY ALOFT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE OREGON CASCADES DURING WHICH
TIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCAL MVFR TO IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE STRONGER
CELLS. TONIGHT EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AFTER 22/06Z. BTL
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ625.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ617-621>623.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ624.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ285.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ280-281.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ284.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.The office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 5:48 PM PDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MFR | Modoc | 3 hr |
| Jul 21, 3:48 AM PDT | Red Flag Warning | MFR | Modoc, Siskiyou | 18 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2014Red Flag Warnings in California, 2014Every red flag warning in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.