High Wind Watch 6, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
944 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A CHILLY START IN MANY AREAS THIS MORNING...IT
WILL BE A SUNNY, MILD FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE NORTH COAST, BUT IT WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL HAVE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHILE EAST SIDE AREAS
HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
KLAMATH VALLEY NEAR SOMES BAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO COLUMBUS DAY...THEN A PACIFIC
FRONT ARRIVES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WET WEATHER
DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE CASCADES
BY TUESDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THOSE AREAS TUESDAY, PERHAPS
REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS (GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH)...THEN THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TO BRING A LITTLE RAIN WHILE WINDS EASE. A COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY DROP DOWN TO AROUND 5500 FEET,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR CRATER LAKE PICKING UP A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...12/12Z TAF CYCLE...MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL ERODE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND INLAND COOS COUNTY...YIELDING VFR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN THE SAME SPOTS...THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND THE COOS
COAST...BUT PROBABLY WON'T BE AS WIDESPREAD. VFR CONTINUES INLAND
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -FB/SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SUN 12 OCT 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH. LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. BOTH THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN AND SWAN OUTPUT ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SWELL PEAKING AT 13 TO 14 FT AT 17 SECONDS,
ALTHOUGH THE SWAN HAS ITS USUAL BIAS OF BEING A BIT TOO FAST AND
SUSPECT IT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE ON THE SWELL HEIGHT.
THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW 10 FEET AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THEN NEXT WEEK A SERIES OF FRONT AND DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH WESTERLY SWELL AND
STEEP SEAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG SOUTH WINDS LATE MONDAY. IT WILL BE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT AGAIN. PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS...HEAVY SEAS...AND
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DETAILS IS HIGH. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVING TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE EC IS MUCH WEAKER. -FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...12/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE TRANSITION IS NOW UNDERWAY TO A MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST AND
OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. AS A RESULT...SKIES HAVE
CLEARED EVERYWHERE BUT THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG THE CASCADES.
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE RIDGES ARE HAMPERING HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...EXCEPT
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WHERE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MARINE
STRATUS.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW ENDS AND THE THERMAL TROUGH SWINGS INLAND. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES S 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN MOVING
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS INLAND AS IT
WILL INITIALLY BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SHORT WAVES
MOVING UP THE FRONT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE SLOW DOWN.

HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH IT DECISIVELY INLAND TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT WETTING RAINS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE FROM THE CASCADES
WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LIGHTER PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD TO THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT 1.00-2.00 INCHES ALONG THE COAST (LIKELY HIGHER NEAR THE
CURRY COASTAL MOUNTAINS)...0.50-1.00 INCH INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...EXCEPT IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
WHERE SOME INITIAL DOWNSLOPING MAY HOLD AMOUNTS TO 0.25-0.50 OF AN
INCH. EAST SIDE AREAS WILL HAVE 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PART OF THAT AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHOWERY WITH
THE COOL AIR IN PLACE ALOFT...AND THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFD...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WE'LL PROBABLY DRY OUT MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST WEST OF THE
CASCADES. MODELS STILL SHOW A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS HEADING
TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP US IN A COOL, WET FALL PATTERN. SPILDE

AVIATION...12/06Z TAF CYCLE...MARINE STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO THE
COAST. IT ORIGINALLY CAME IN WITH IFR VIS, BUT THE LAYER HAS LIFTED
INTO AN IFR CIG AND UNRESTRICTED SURFACE VIS. IT'S MOVING IN AND
OUT OF KOTH. BUFR SOUNDINGS CAPTURED THIS CHANGE AND THEY SHOW
VFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. THIS STRATUS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN BY AROUND DAWN SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PDT SAT 11 OCT 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH
OF GOLD BEACH THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL HAS BEEN
INCREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND WILL PEAK TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. BOTH THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN AND SWAN OUTPUT ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SWELL PEAKING AT 13 TO 14 FT AT 17 SECONDS,
ALTHOUGH THE SWAN HAS ITS USUAL BIAS OF BEING A BIT TOO FAST AND
SUSPECT IT MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE ON THE SWELL HEIGHT.
THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW 10 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THEN NEXT WEEK A SERIES OF FRONT AND DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MODERATE SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH WESTERLY SWELL AND STEEP
SEAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG SOUTH WINDS LATE MONDAY. IT WILL BE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT AGAIN. PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS...HEAVY SEAS...AND
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DETAILS IS HIGH. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVING TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE EC IS MUCH WEAKER. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

MAS/JRS/FJB