Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEGUN TO PUSH
ASHORE IN THE TAMPA AREA BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL AND MAY
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARD SW/SC GEORGIA DUE THE STRONG MID/UPPER
WINDS WRAPPING AROUND ITS BASE. THIS FLOW IS REFLECTED WELL AT THE
TBW RADAR SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER FEATURE...WHICH DEPICTS AROUND
50 KTS BETWEEN 2-5 KFT AND AROUND 70 KNOTS AROUND 500 MB. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS SRN FL COULD BE
THE INSTABILITY. THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SFC-BASED
CAPE RANGING FROM 175-200 J/KG ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST
WRF/HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES...HOWEVER...HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED LINE OF SHOWERS REDEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. DESPITE
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY NOTED...ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
TRANSLATE TO 45 TO 55 KNOT WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SFC (45-50 KT
ON THE MIA VWP AT 2-4 KFT).

THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY LIFT OUT
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS. NW
FLOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL...MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND NWRN LOCATIONS AROUND
THE LAKE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE EAST COAST
LOCATIONS REMAINING SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE ENE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP.
A FEW STORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD
LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH WINDS
AND SEAS TRENDING BACK DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MODELS AND CURRENT
TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST/KAPF AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z, THEN OVER
THE SE FLORIDA AIRPORTS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CONVECTION NOT TOO STRONG
AT PRESENT TIME AND TAFS REFLECT VCTS WITH TEMPO SHRA, BUT THIS
WILL BE MONITORED AS THERE'S STILL A CHANCE CONVECTION MAY
INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES SE FLORIDA TOWARD SUNRISE. DON'T EXPECT
ANY IFR CONDITIONS, AT LEAST NOT LASTING TOO LONG, WITH MVFR
CEILING/VSBY FOR 2-3 HOURS AROUND TIME OF PRECIP AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE 12Z AT KAPF AND AROUND 12Z AT
SE FLORIDA AIRPORTS, WITH WIND SHIFT TO W/NW AND SLOW CLEARING. BY
18Z ALL SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  65  83  67 /  30  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  67  83  70 /  30  10  10  10
MIAMI            81  67  84  69 /  30  10  10  10
NAPLES           78  59  83  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....85/AG

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