Rip Current Statement 7, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEGUN TO PUSH
ASHORE IN THE TAMPA AREA BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL AND MAY
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARD SW/SC GEORGIA DUE THE STRONG MID/UPPER
WINDS WRAPPING AROUND ITS BASE. THIS FLOW IS REFLECTED WELL AT THE
TBW RADAR SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER FEATURE...WHICH DEPICTS AROUND
50 KTS BETWEEN 2-5 KFT AND AROUND 70 KNOTS AROUND 500 MB. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS SRN FL COULD BE
THE INSTABILITY. THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SFC-BASED
CAPE RANGING FROM 175-200 J/KG ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST
WRF/HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES...HOWEVER...HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE
PRONOUNCED LINE OF SHOWERS REDEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. DESPITE
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY NOTED...ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
TRANSLATE TO 45 TO 55 KNOT WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SFC (45-50 KT
ON THE MIA VWP AT 2-4 KFT).

THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY LIFT OUT
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS. NW
FLOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL...MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND NWRN LOCATIONS AROUND
THE LAKE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE EAST COAST
LOCATIONS REMAINING SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE ENE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP.
A FEW STORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD
LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH WINDS
AND SEAS TRENDING BACK DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MODELS AND CURRENT
TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST/KAPF AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z, THEN OVER
THE SE FLORIDA AIRPORTS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. CONVECTION NOT TOO STRONG
AT PRESENT TIME AND TAFS REFLECT VCTS WITH TEMPO SHRA, BUT THIS
WILL BE MONITORED AS THERE'S STILL A CHANCE CONVECTION MAY
INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES SE FLORIDA TOWARD SUNRISE. DON'T EXPECT
ANY IFR CONDITIONS, AT LEAST NOT LASTING TOO LONG, WITH MVFR
CEILING/VSBY FOR 2-3 HOURS AROUND TIME OF PRECIP AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE 12Z AT KAPF AND AROUND 12Z AT
SE FLORIDA AIRPORTS, WITH WIND SHIFT TO W/NW AND SLOW CLEARING. BY
18Z ALL SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  65  83  67 /  30  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  67  83  70 /  30  10  10  10
MIAMI            81  67  84  69 /  30  10  10  10
NAPLES           78  59  83  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....85/AG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
181245-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
748 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

...ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS:  THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
GULF BEACHES AND A SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH
THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS LESSENED. HOWEVER,
WE STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL.

TORNADOES: A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TONIGHT.

WATERSPOUTS: ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WIND: THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS HAS LESSENED, BUT WE STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS CONTAINING
DAMAGING WINDS. THIS RISK IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST
BEACHES TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN INCOMING NORTHEAST SWELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014

FLZ063-066-067-069-070-180900-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-HENDRY FL-GLADES FL-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-
416 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014

..A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH FOR GLADES...HENDRY AND NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTIES...

AT 412 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BRIGHTON SEMINOLE TO NEAR GOLDEN GATE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE. THESE
WINDS CAN BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS, UPROOT SMALL TREES AND KNOCK
DOWN POWER LINES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IMMOKALEE...CLEWISTON...LA BELLE...PALMDALE...DEVILS GARDEN...
LAKEPORT...MOORE HAVEN...FELDA...MUSE...ORTONA...BUCKHEAD RIDGE...
BRIGHTON SEMINOLE AND ORANGE TREE.

LAT...LON 2719 8091 2715 8087 2707 8096 2704 8093
      2693 8112 2682 8106 2681 8095 2673 8085
      2636 8102 2619 8181 2632 8177 2632 8166
      2642 8166 2643 8156 2703 8152 2703 8127
      2712 8127 2712 8117 2721 8117
TIME...MOT...LOC 0812Z 247DEG 34KT 2713 8118 2624 8175

MOLLEDA