Wind Advisory 12, NWS Memphis, TN

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

836 
WWUS74 KMEG 140841 CCA
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...STRONG NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

.NORTH WIND BEHIND A STRONG SPRING COLD FRONT WILL BE SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THESE WINDS
WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS TONIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN AREAS
OF FRONT CAPABLE OF KILLING YOUNG TENDER VEGETATION. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COVERAGE OF FROST. WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY HELP TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>003-007-008-010>012-020-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>052-088>090-
141700-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WI.Y.0012.140414T1800Z-140415T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.FR.Y.0001.140415T0700Z-140415T1600Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TUNICA-TATE-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-
TALLAHATCHIE-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-
LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POCAHONTAS...PIGGOTT...CORNING...
WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...
WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...MARIANNA...HELENA...
WEST HELENA...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...
OLIVE BRANCH...HOLLY SPRINGS...ASHLAND...TUNICA...SENATOBIA...
CLARKSDALE...MARKS...BATESVILLE...CHARLESTON...TIPTONVILLE...
UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...
MILAN...HUNTINGDON...RIPLEY TN...COVINGTON...BROWNSVILLE...
ALAMO...JACKSON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...
MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...OAKLAND...BOLIVAR
340 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
CDT TONIGHT...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM CDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM CDT TUESDAY. 

* WINDS...25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURE/FROST COVERAGE...32 TO 36 DEGREES RESULTING N PATCHY
  FROST ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AREAS.  

* TIMING...WIND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FROST 2
  AM TONIGHT THROUGH 11 AM TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN
  AWAY. DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHWAY
  SPEEDS IN OPEN RURAL AREAS. DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...
  TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO
  THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...AS THEY MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE
  CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. FROST MAY KILL OF DAMAGE TENDER
  VEGETATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

MSZ004>006-009-013>017-021>024-TNZ022-053>055-091-092-141700-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WI.Y.0012.140414T1800Z-140415T0500Z/
TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-PRENTISS-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-
ITAWAMBA-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-BENTON TN-CHESTER-
HENDERSON-DECATUR-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RIPLEY MS...CORINTH...IUKA...
BOONEVILLE...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...PONTOTOC...TUPELO...FULTON...
WATER VALLEY...COFFEEVILLE...BRUCE...CALHOUN CITY...HOUSTON...
OKOLONA...AMORY...ABERDEEN...CAMDEN...HENDERSON...LEXINGTON...
PARSONS...DECATURVILLE...SELMER...SAVANNAH
340 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
CDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT. 

* WINDS...25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN 
  AWAY. DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHWAY 
  SPEEDS IN OPEN RURAL AREAS. DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS... 
  TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO 
  THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...AS THEY MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE 
  CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

746 
WWUS74 KMEG 141655
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1155 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...STRONG NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

.NORTH WIND BEHIND A STRONG SPRING COLD FRONT WILL BE SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THESE
WINDS WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS TONIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FROST CAPABLE OF KILLING YOUNG TENDER VEGETATION. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COVERAGE OF FROST. WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY HELP TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>003-007-008-010>012-020-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>052-088>090-
150100-
/O.CON.KMEG.WI.Y.0012.140414T1800Z-140415T0500Z/
/O.CON.KMEG.FR.Y.0001.140415T0700Z-140415T1600Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TUNICA-TATE-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-
TALLAHATCHIE-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-
LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POCAHONTAS...PIGGOTT...CORNING...
WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...
WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...MARIANNA...HELENA...
WEST HELENA...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...
OLIVE BRANCH...HOLLY SPRINGS...ASHLAND...TUNICA...SENATOBIA...
CLARKSDALE...MARKS...BATESVILLE...CHARLESTON...TIPTONVILLE...
UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...
MILAN...HUNTINGDON...RIPLEY TN...COVINGTON...BROWNSVILLE...
ALAMO...JACKSON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...
MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...OAKLAND...BOLIVAR
1155 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT...
...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURE/FROST COVERAGE...32 TO 36 DEGREES RESULTING N 
  PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AREAS. 

* TIMING...WIND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FROST 2 
  AM TONIGHT THROUGH 11 AM TUESDAY. 

* IMPACTS...UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN 
  AWAY. DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHWAY 
  SPEEDS IN OPEN RURAL AREAS. DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS... 
  TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO 
  THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...AS THEY MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE 
  CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. FROST MAY KILL OF DAMAGE TENDER 
  VEGETATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

MSZ004>006-009-013>017-021>024-TNZ022-053>055-091-092-150100-
/O.CON.KMEG.WI.Y.0012.140414T1800Z-140415T0500Z/
TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-PRENTISS-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-
ITAWAMBA-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-BENTON TN-CHESTER-
HENDERSON-DECATUR-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RIPLEY MS...CORINTH...IUKA...
BOONEVILLE...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...PONTOTOC...TUPELO...FULTON...
WATER VALLEY...COFFEEVILLE...BRUCE...CALHOUN CITY...HOUSTON...
OKOLONA...AMORY...ABERDEEN...CAMDEN...HENDERSON...LEXINGTON...
PARSONS...DECATURVILLE...SELMER...SAVANNAH
1155 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT...

* WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING BLOWN 
  AWAY. DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHWAY 
  SPEEDS IN OPEN RURAL AREAS. DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS... 
  TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO 
  THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...AS THEY MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE 
  CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

099 
WWUS74 KMEG 142057
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
357 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES AND FROST TO SHELTERED AREAS...

.A COLD FRONT WILL USHERING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
WITH SOME AREAS HAVING FROST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AREAS OF FROST TO AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED FROM THE WIND.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>003-007-008-010>012-020-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>052-088>090-
150500-
/O.CAN.KMEG.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140415T0500Z/
/O.CON.KMEG.FR.Y.0001.140415T0700Z-140415T1600Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TUNICA-TATE-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-
TALLAHATCHIE-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-
LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POCAHONTAS...PIGGOTT...CORNING...
WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...
WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...MARIANNA...HELENA...
WEST HELENA...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...
OLIVE BRANCH...HOLLY SPRINGS...ASHLAND...TUNICA...SENATOBIA...
CLARKSDALE...MARKS...BATESVILLE...CHARLESTON...TIPTONVILLE...
UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...
MILAN...HUNTINGDON...RIPLEY TN...COVINGTON...BROWNSVILLE...
ALAMO...JACKSON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...
MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...OAKLAND...BOLIVAR
357 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

* TEMPERATURE/FROST COVERAGE...32 TO 36 DEGREES RESULTING IN PATCHY
  FROST ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AREAS.

* TIMING...FROST WILL FORM FROM 2 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 11 AM TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...FROST MAY KILL OR DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

MSZ004-013-021-TNZ022-053-054-150500-
/O.CAN.KMEG.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140415T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KMEG.FR.Y.0001.140415T0700Z-140415T1600Z/
TIPPAH-LAFAYETTE-YALOBUSHA-BENTON TN-CHESTER-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RIPLEY MS...OXFORD...WATER VALLEY...
COFFEEVILLE...CAMDEN...HENDERSON...LEXINGTON
357 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM CDT TUESDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM CDT TUESDAY. THE
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* TEMPERATURES /FROST COVERAGE...32 TO 36 DEGREES RESULTING IN PATCHY
  FROST ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AREAS.

* TIMING...FROST WILL FORM FROM 2 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 11 AM TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...FROST MAY KILL OR DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

MSZ005-006-009-014>017-022>024-TNZ055-091-092-142200-
/O.CAN.KMEG.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140415T0500Z/
ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-PRENTISS-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA-CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-MONROE-DECATUR-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORINTH...IUKA...BOONEVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...PONTOTOC...TUPELO...FULTON...BRUCE...CALHOUN CITY...
HOUSTON...OKOLONA...AMORY...ABERDEEN...PARSONS...DECATURVILLE...
SELMER...SAVANNAH
357 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 MPH TONIGHT AND THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1201 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78 TO PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRECEDING MORE SOLID QLCS SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE LATE THIS EVENING WITH
SOME WIND DAMAGE REPORTS. SOLID LEWP LINE ENTERING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS OF 0445Z WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ENVIRONMENT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LINE IS PRESUMED TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AS 03Z
SOUNDING RELEASED FROM KLZK INDICATED SBCAPES AROUND 1050 J/KG
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCH OF THE CAPE NOTED
BETWEEN 700-500MB. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
0-1KM SRH VALUES REMAIN AT 300 M2/S2 OR GREATER WITH BACKED
SURFACE WINDS STILL NOTED IN MAINLY CONVECTIVELY UNDISTURBED
AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THEREFORE A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN MESOCYCLONE SPIN UPS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE CONVECTIVE LINE.

LATEST FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADDITION OF THE
WATCH AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE BACKED AT THE SURFACE AND A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT MID-
LEVEL WESTERLY JET WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
FORCED LINE OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SPECIFICALLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1000 TO
NEAR 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL BE ON HAND...ALONG WITH LI/S -6 TO
-8C...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 60KTS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW EVENING. ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS AND THE LOCATION OF LOW WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY COLD AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE 30S...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH
TO FEND OFF ANY FROST FORMING OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
BE WHAT DEVELOPS INSTEAD.

BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S
DURING THE DAY AS STRONG CAA WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL DAY LONG.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP OFF VERY QUICKLY. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S
AND MANY PLACES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FREEZE WARNING
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-SOUTH.

THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN BY LATE SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
BACK TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE NOW APPROACHING EAST ARKANSAS. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES UP TO 30 KTS...BUT WILL DROP OFF BEHIND
THE LINE TO 10 KTS OR LESS. NON CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AHEAD OF THE SOLID CONVECTIVE
LINE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED TO COVER THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMING FOR CONVECTION AT EACH
TERMINAL. IFR CIGS EARLY SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR PRIOR TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 10-12 KTS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH A LOWERING BACK TO LOW END MVFR CIGS. SOME IFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT
THIS TIME. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RAIN SHOULD END MONDAY EVENING BUT LOW STRATUS WITH LOW END MVFR
TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
155 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-150900-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
155 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT MAINLY IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY RISK
WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. A SECONDARY THREAT OF A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY MORNING AND A
FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT. PLEASE PASS ALONG ANY
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE OR LARGE HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1056 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     TSTM WND GST     DYERSBURG               36.04N 89.38W
04/13/2014  E0 MPH           DYER               TN   PUBLIC

            61 MPH WIND SOUTHEAST SECTION OF DYERSBURG WITH PRIVATELY
            OWNED ANEMOMETER.

&&

ZEI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAURY CITY              35.82N 89.22W
04/13/2014                   CROCKETT           TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            BIG TREE DOWN IN MAURY CITY AND NEAR TN HWY 88 AND US 412
            THREE MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAURY CITY.

&&

ZEI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
145 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND GST     TUNICA                  34.69N 90.38W
04/14/2014  M58 MPH          TUNICA             MS   AWOS

            A 58 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS RECORDED BY THE TUNICA AWOS AT
            1235 AM.

&&

JLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
247 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TUNICA                  34.69N 90.38W
04/14/2014                   TUNICA             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE FALLING TREE LIMB SHATTERED WINDOW TO A RESIDENCE
            IN TUNICA

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TUNICA                  34.69N 90.38W
04/14/2014                   TUNICA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT TUNICA... ONE TREE LANDED ON THREE
            CARS. 3 LARGE METAL SHEDS WERE BLOWN OVER AND MORE
            STRUCTUAL DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT NOT VERIFIED.

&&

JPM